Texas Winter 2010-2011

[txagwxman]

Lows tonight will be in the mid-to-upper 20s---too many clouds.

It is impossible to determine how much snow/ice/sleet will accumulate...if someone makes a call and get is right, it is mostly luck...looking at latest water vapor, it doesn't look as moist at the 400-500 mb as I previously thought, so the lighter amounts may verify...

We will see more data / runs tomorrow and the precip should start tomorrow evening.

[iorange55]

The day started with optimism! It might end with negativity.

[Ntxw]

The day started with optimism! It might end with negativity.

Man it is rough forecasting snow in southern Texas. It's tough here but even more unknown down there with cold air in place! I hope everyone sees at least an inch or so of snow. That will be enough for fun just about everywhere. I do like our chances though with the ULL doing some nice lifting here up north into Oklahoma.

[iorange55]

The day started with optimism! It might end with negativity.

Man it is rough forecasting snow in southern Texas. It's tough here but even more unknown down there with cold air in place! I hope everyone sees at least an inch or so of snow. That will be enough for fun just about everywhere. I do like our chances though with the ULL doing some nice lifting here up north into Oklahoma.

Someone's brother from the KHOU board agrees

"A big bust from the get go. Temps will not get as low tonight and the upper low over NM has shifted east not taking the dive south as the models indicated. The moisture in the Gulf is moving south and east into LA. To many variables that did not come together. Great snow maker for central and north TX. IMO."

I still think houston will see some. I think Austin still will do....I hope at least and San Antonio since they almost never see anything.

[South Texas Storms]

Should I be worried about not even getting an inch of snow here in CLL or SA?

[iorange55]

Should I be worried about not even getting an inch of snow here in CLL or SA?

I wouldn't worry yet. Especially not in CLL.

[Anthony]

NAM is coming in very dry tonight.

[South Texas Storms]

Man I really hope the rest of the 00z models tonight help me go to bed on a brighter note.

[txagwxman]

KDUG 030156Z AUTO 08024G30KT 10SM FEW060 M07/M17 A3014 RMK AO2 PK WND 08030/0155 SLP232 T10721172 FZRANO $
KDUG 030056Z AUTO 08017G26KT 10SM CLR M06/M17 A3011 RMK AO2 PK WND 08030/0046 SLP215 T10611167 FZRANO $
KDUG 022356Z AUTO 09020G25KT 10SM CLR M02/M16 A3007 RMK AO2 PK WND 09027/2301 SLP193 T10221161 10028 21022 53009 FZRANO $
KDUG 022256Z AUTO 08018G24KT 10SM CLR M01/M16 A3004 RMK AO2 PK WND 08026/2239 SLP182 T10061156 FZRANO $
KDUG 022156Z AUTO 09014KT 10SM CLR 01/M16 A3004 RMK AO2 SLP174 T00111156 FZRANO $
KDUG 022056Z AUTO VRB04KT 10SM CLR 02/M18 A3004 RMK AO2 SLP167 T00221178 58017 FZRANO
KDUG 021956Z AUTO 04008KT 020V080 10SM CLR 02/M17 A3005 RMK AO2 SLP171 T00221172 FZRANO
KDUG 021856Z AUTO 01008G14KT 10SM CLR 01/M17 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP178 T00111172 FZRANO
KDUG 021756Z AUTO 35014G17KT 10SM CLR 00/M17 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP185 T00001172 10006 21078 51019 FZRANO
KDUG 021656Z AUTO 35015KT 10SM CLR M01/M14 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP180 T10111139 FZRANO
KDUG 021556Z AUTO 35015KT 10SM CLR M03/M16 A3005 RMK AO2 SLP178 T10281156 FZRANO
KDUG 021456Z AUTO 32008KT 10SM CLR M06/M20 A3003 RMK AO2 SLP171 T10561200 53015 FZRANO

Something you don't see too often...Arctic front blasting through Douglas, AZ.

[Turtle]

This forecast is total bogus. Nothing matches with each other.

A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. North wind around 5 mph. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

40% chance with 2-4"? This is ridiculous.

[weatherguy425]

Im not sure what the heck ya'll are freakin out about...

Moisture streaming in fro mthe pacific...

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satelli ... g&itype=wv

ULL DIGGING into Northwen Mexico...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

And yeah... temps will still most likely be i nthe upper 20's by morning? During last year's snow we started out the day at 40?

[kwoodwx]

Im not sure what the heck ya'll are freakin out about...

Moisture streaming in fro mthe pacific...

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satelli ... g&itype=wv

ULL DIGGING into Northwen Mexico...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

And yeah... temps will still most likely be i nthe upper 20's by morning? During last year's snow we started out the day at 40?

Amen!

[pwrdog]

I've been reading Larry's blog updates off-and-on for about a year. He's been losing me more and more this winter. Seems like he's been wrong more than even close.

If you look back at his forecast for this current cold wave he missed by 5-7 degrees... That's a big miss...

That's the type of miss that would get you fired if you were the one making the decision to send out the sand trucks..

You better not miss on the wrong side by 3 or 4 degrees with precip falling on the 4th largest city in the USA....

34 is fine driving weather, not so good at 30 or 31..


His forecast for lighter precip is still up for debate since the storm still has to evolve almost right on top of Houston..

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
907 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...FROZEN PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

.VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS AIR WILL COMBINE
WITH MODERATE WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL
VALUES FROM NOW THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...THE APPROACH
OF A DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE
WEST...COMBINED WITH THE FORMATION OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...WILL PRODUCE SOME FROZEN
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...
MAINLY FROM THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THURSDAY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS OF FRIDAY.

TXZ248-249-252-031115-
/O.NEW.KBRO.WS.W.0001.110203T1800Z-110204T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KBRO.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-110204T1800Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-STARR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...
RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA
907 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

...WIND CHILL WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON CST
FRIDAY...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. THE WIND CHILL WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
FRIDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE LONE STAR STATE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE APPROACH OF THIS DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH THE FORMATION OF
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...
WILL PRODUCE FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND NOON
THURSDAY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR THAT RUNS FROM MCALLEN
TO FALFURRIAS. WEST OF THIS CORRIDOR...SNOW AND SLEET ARE LIKELY.
THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL INTENSIFY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING
EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR...AND SNOW AND SLEET WEST OF THE
CORRIDOR. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR...WITH UP TO A HALF
INCH POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR.

ALSO...MODERATE WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH COLD ARCTIC
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 5 AND 15
DEGREES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BETWEEN 15 AND 25 DEGREES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

RESIDENTS OF SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

[iorange55]

Not everyday you see a winter storm warning from Brownsville

[Ntxw]

^ Wow winter storm warning for Brownsville?! What is their criteria for an advisory? Either this storm is really going to deliver or yikes.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

for real you guys are depressing me

[kb75007]

Are they pretty set on the track of this system or are they not very sure yet?

[Ntxw]

for real you guys are depressing me

Why would you feel depressed? This has been the best prospects of snow for Houston in long time that's predicted well ahead of time.

[South Texas Storms]

So that means HGX and EWX should be upgrading to warnings fairly soon, right?