benrayrog wrote:Assuming forecasts hold true for tonight, what would the estimated time of arrival be for precipitation in East Texas in the Tyler area?
After midnight. Early morning to mid morning it looks like best chance.
Texas Winter 2010-2011
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Re:
After midnight. Early morning to mid morning it looks like best chance.
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SouthernMet
- Category 3
- Posts: 857
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- Location: fort worth, tx
Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
CMC showed most of the heavy precip east of I-35 but but had light precip in DFW like the GFS.
Euro has a dusting for DFW.
NAM,HRRR,and SREF show a more organized ULL consalidated as it moves across south cental Tx taping into decent mositure and holding together a nice 1-2"+ accum for DFW. Things that can affect current forecasts is higher ratios further north of course, and when+where the precip shield and or bands set up.
The models are getting the idea that the bulk of the signifigant or heavier precip will be East of the I-35 corridor. Which seems likely...
But something to add.. the three models that are sniffing out this potential for more in DFW and North Central Tx + Hill country are the 3 models that have done an excellent job in the short range so far this winter. (Hince the name Short Range Ensemble)
Now the reason of this post was not to say we are in for a bust or winter storm nonsense but just hoping to answer some of the questions about DFW.
19Z HRRR Running now..
Euro has a dusting for DFW.
NAM,HRRR,and SREF show a more organized ULL consalidated as it moves across south cental Tx taping into decent mositure and holding together a nice 1-2"+ accum for DFW. Things that can affect current forecasts is higher ratios further north of course, and when+where the precip shield and or bands set up.
The models are getting the idea that the bulk of the signifigant or heavier precip will be East of the I-35 corridor. Which seems likely...
But something to add.. the three models that are sniffing out this potential for more in DFW and North Central Tx + Hill country are the 3 models that have done an excellent job in the short range so far this winter. (Hince the name Short Range Ensemble)
Now the reason of this post was not to say we are in for a bust or winter storm nonsense but just hoping to answer some of the questions about DFW.
19Z HRRR Running now..
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Anthony
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
South Texas Storms wrote:How are totals for SA and CLL looking as of now? Havn't been able to check much today because I am in class.
College Station still looking good for accumulating snow, SA not so much as usual.
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South Texas Storms
- Professional-Met
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- Location: Houston, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Anthony wrote:South Texas Storms wrote:How are totals for SA and CLL looking as of now? Havn't been able to check much today because I am in class.
College Station still looking good for accumulating snow, SA not so much as usual.
Anthony are you worried SA will miss out again?
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orangeblood
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- Location: Fort Worth, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
South Texas Storms wrote:How are totals for SA and CLL looking as of now? Havn't been able to check much today because I am in class.
College Station is in a very favorable location for this event - I'd say 2-3 inches for Aggieland, maybe more!!! San Antonio maybe an inch.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Anthony
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
I definitely wouldn't rate the odds of seeing snow in San Antonio at 100%.. looking more like it's gonna be a couple snow showers that move through the city dropping a dusting or so. That'll still be more than what I've seen here since moving in 2002, but I don't see the ground getting very white at all.
Not an official forecast
Not an official forecast
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South Texas Storms
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- Posts: 4227
- Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Anthony wrote:I definitely wouldn't rate the odds of seeing snow in San Antonio at 100%.. looking more like it's gonna be a couple snow showers that move through the city dropping a dusting or so. That'll still be more than what I've seen here since moving in 2002, but I don't see the ground getting very white at all.
Not an official forecast
Is there any chance SA could get over an inch?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
See this is what keeps giving me hope for this system. It doesn't seem to be weakening this at all. Either stays the same or gets stronger with each run.
If this was going to be a big bust you'd think this model would start catching on right now.
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Texas Snowman
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- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
For us Red River folks, the afternoon AFD for Norman NWS.
Interesting to note that they expect much of SE Oklahoma to receive up to an inch of accumulation (possible, anyway).
Also interesting to note their take on next week's storm system.
-----
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
238 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NM/NORTHERN OLD MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BROUGHT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO PARTS OF THE FA WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT IN MANY
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER... WILL STILL BE COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
AROUND ZERO IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW TEENS ALONG THE RED RIVER. THE
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES
TO APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FA BY FRIDAY. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE LARGE WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS... MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...
EXPECTED IN SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONT TO
GRADUALLY WARM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MOST PLACES EXPECTED TO
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY.
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW SEVERAL DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS FLOW... BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
FLURRIES SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS BY MONDAY BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING SE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY THEN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS THE ONE FROM EARLIER THIS
WEEK. HOWEVER... THE SYSTEM COULD STILL PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND COLD WIND CHILLS.
BEING SIX TO SEVEN DAYS AWAY MANY THINGS CAN CHANGE BUT RIGHT NOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN PARTS OF THE FA.
Interesting to note that they expect much of SE Oklahoma to receive up to an inch of accumulation (possible, anyway).
Also interesting to note their take on next week's storm system.
-----
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
238 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NM/NORTHERN OLD MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BROUGHT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO PARTS OF THE FA WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT IN MANY
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER... WILL STILL BE COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
AROUND ZERO IN THE NORTH TO THE LOW TEENS ALONG THE RED RIVER. THE
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES
TO APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FA BY FRIDAY. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE LARGE WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS... MAYBE UP TO AN INCH...
EXPECTED IN SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONT TO
GRADUALLY WARM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MOST PLACES EXPECTED TO
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY.
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW SEVERAL DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS FLOW... BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
FLURRIES SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS BY MONDAY BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING SE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY THEN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS THE ONE FROM EARLIER THIS
WEEK. HOWEVER... THE SYSTEM COULD STILL PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND COLD WIND CHILLS.
BEING SIX TO SEVEN DAYS AWAY MANY THINGS CAN CHANGE BUT RIGHT NOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN PARTS OF THE FA.
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SouthernMet
- Category 3
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- Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 8:23 pm
- Location: fort worth, tx
Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Hmm... Latest Satellite appears our ULL actually starting a slight jog East imo... 
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Nothing that SouthernMet posts, is an official forecast,nor does it reflect views of STORM2K.. SouthernMet is just adding to the great discussions on STORM2K.. Refer to NWS for official forecasts.
Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
SouthernMet wrote:Hmm... Latest Satellite appears our ULL actually starting a slight jog East imo...
To the people down south it's jogging slighty south, to the people up north it's slightly going north, West Tx people it's going slightly west, east etc. Wobbling watching
. It's doing basically what the short term models are projecting. Slight variations occur naturally as with any system. Still looks like a late evening, overnight, and early tomorrow event for most of Texas.The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Last edited by Ntxw on Thu Feb 03, 2011 4:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Anthony
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- Location: San Antonio
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
South Texas Storms wrote:Is there any chance SA could get over an inch?
It's certainly possible, especially if we can get a healthy band move through like the HRRR keeps suggesting, but I think our window of opportunity of seeing accumulating snowfall is smaller than what I was thinking yesterday. The limiting factor is moisture availability, and there's plenty of dry air moving in from the west. As others said, the low will eventually tap into some Gulf moisture and some of that will work it's way up to San Antonio this evening. I just don't think the moisture will stick around long enough to generate much in the way of accumulations locally.
Not an official forecast
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Texas Snowman
- Storm2k Moderator
- Posts: 6179
- Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
- Location: Denison, Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Storm has turned very deadly in Oklahoma after horrible accident on an icy river bridge.
I know cabin fever has struck many, but please, please be careful. Roads are still VERY treacherous here in North Texas near the Red River.
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/02/03/de ... latestnews
I know cabin fever has struck many, but please, please be careful. Roads are still VERY treacherous here in North Texas near the Red River.
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/02/03/de ... latestnews
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JenBayles
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- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011
.DISCUSSION...
THE ICE PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS ALREADY UNFOLDING
WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OCCURRING OVER GALVESTON AND CHAMBERS
COUNTIES. KHGX RADAR SHOWS SOME MODERATE RETURNS IN CHAMBERS
COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ARE 29 TO 32 IN THIS AREA. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND THE 18Z NAM SHOW SOME WARMING NEAR THE 850 MB LAYER
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. WILL CALL FREEZING
RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET EAST OF A LINE FROM SARGENT TO DOWNTOWN
HOUSTON TO LIVINGSTON THROUGH 06Z. EXCEPT OVER GALVESTON AND
CHAMBERS COUNTIES...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...BUT SOME
PATCHES OF ICE COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ON BRIDGES/OVERPASSES.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL SHIFT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT TO A SARGENT
TO LEAGUE CITY TO LIBERTY LINE AND EASTWARD. FURTHER WEST...EXPECTING
ALL SNOW WEST OF A LINE FROM EAGLE LAKE TO SEALY TO HUNTSVILLE TO
CROCKETT...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW EAST OF THAT LINE FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EVENT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW STILL BACK OVER THE BIG
BEND REGION THIS AFTN. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY LIFT EAST
TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH LIFT INCREASING AND UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
DIFFLUENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT THE AIRMASS DOES NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED OVER MOST OF THE
CWA UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE BEST SATURATION (UP TO THE
-8 TO -10C LEVEL) FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT TO MID MORNING FRIDAY. THIS
IS WHEN THE MAIN PRECIP EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE. THINKING SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...WITH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST OF 1/10 TO POSSIBLY 1/4 INCH.
FRONTOGENESIS TAKES PLACE IN THE 850 MB LAYER WHICH COULD HELP
RESULT IN SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL...WITH ISOLATED
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDER
OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS. EVEN IF
AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW...THE VERY COLD SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL MEAN
MAJOR PROBLEMS ON THE ROADWAYS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
SOMETIMES THE SMALLER SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS CAN TURN INTO A
GLAZE ON ROADWAYS AS THIS FORECASTER EXPERIENCED ONCE WHILE LIVING
IN OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION TO THE ICY ROADS...WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
THE PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE LIFT SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRECIP. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW ZONES BY MIDDAY
AND AREA WIDE BY LATE AFTN. ENOUGH CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS FRI AFTN. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT EARLY FRI EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SNOW/SLEET
COVER WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER HARD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD
END UP BEING THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE EVENT. REFREEZING IS LIKELY
ON ROADWAYS WITH POSSIBILITY OF BLACK ICE FORMING ON
BRIDGES/OVERPASSES. TEMPS WILL FINALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING LATE
MORNING SATURDAY. SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S SATURDAY AFTN. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL
WITH A LIGHT FREEZE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
TOOK A GOOD LOOK AT THE DAYS 4-7 FORECAST THIS AFTN. THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
WITH TEMPS AT LEAST CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMALS. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO
DRY FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FROPA. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
NORTHERN HALF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOST INLAND AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH WITH A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS TUE
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH WARMER FOR
WEDNESDAY...NOW THE WARMEST DAY...SO WINTRY PRECIP NO LONGER
APPEARS TO BE A THREAT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. TEMPS ALOFT ARE ACTUALLY COLDER BEHIND THIS
FRONT THAN THE CURRENT AIRMASS...SO A HARD FREEZE APPEARS POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011
.DISCUSSION...
THE ICE PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS ALREADY UNFOLDING
WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OCCURRING OVER GALVESTON AND CHAMBERS
COUNTIES. KHGX RADAR SHOWS SOME MODERATE RETURNS IN CHAMBERS
COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ARE 29 TO 32 IN THIS AREA. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND THE 18Z NAM SHOW SOME WARMING NEAR THE 850 MB LAYER
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. WILL CALL FREEZING
RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET EAST OF A LINE FROM SARGENT TO DOWNTOWN
HOUSTON TO LIVINGSTON THROUGH 06Z. EXCEPT OVER GALVESTON AND
CHAMBERS COUNTIES...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...BUT SOME
PATCHES OF ICE COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ON BRIDGES/OVERPASSES.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL SHIFT THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT TO A SARGENT
TO LEAGUE CITY TO LIBERTY LINE AND EASTWARD. FURTHER WEST...EXPECTING
ALL SNOW WEST OF A LINE FROM EAGLE LAKE TO SEALY TO HUNTSVILLE TO
CROCKETT...WITH A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW EAST OF THAT LINE FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EVENT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW STILL BACK OVER THE BIG
BEND REGION THIS AFTN. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY LIFT EAST
TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH LIFT INCREASING AND UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
DIFFLUENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT THE AIRMASS DOES NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED OVER MOST OF THE
CWA UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE BEST SATURATION (UP TO THE
-8 TO -10C LEVEL) FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT TO MID MORNING FRIDAY. THIS
IS WHEN THE MAIN PRECIP EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE. THINKING SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...WITH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST OF 1/10 TO POSSIBLY 1/4 INCH.
FRONTOGENESIS TAKES PLACE IN THE 850 MB LAYER WHICH COULD HELP
RESULT IN SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL...WITH ISOLATED
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
OVER THE NW HALF OF THE AREA BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDER
OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS. EVEN IF
AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW...THE VERY COLD SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL MEAN
MAJOR PROBLEMS ON THE ROADWAYS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.
SOMETIMES THE SMALLER SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS CAN TURN INTO A
GLAZE ON ROADWAYS AS THIS FORECASTER EXPERIENCED ONCE WHILE LIVING
IN OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION TO THE ICY ROADS...WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
THE PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE LIFT SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRECIP. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW ZONES BY MIDDAY
AND AREA WIDE BY LATE AFTN. ENOUGH CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS FRI AFTN. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT EARLY FRI EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SNOW/SLEET
COVER WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER HARD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD
END UP BEING THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE EVENT. REFREEZING IS LIKELY
ON ROADWAYS WITH POSSIBILITY OF BLACK ICE FORMING ON
BRIDGES/OVERPASSES. TEMPS WILL FINALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING LATE
MORNING SATURDAY. SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S SATURDAY AFTN. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL
WITH A LIGHT FREEZE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
TOOK A GOOD LOOK AT THE DAYS 4-7 FORECAST THIS AFTN. THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN ON PREVIOUS DAYS WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTS NEXT WEEK. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
WITH TEMPS AT LEAST CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMALS. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO
DRY FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FROPA. FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
NORTHERN HALF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOST INLAND AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS LATE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH WITH A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS TUE
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH WARMER FOR
WEDNESDAY...NOW THE WARMEST DAY...SO WINTRY PRECIP NO LONGER
APPEARS TO BE A THREAT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. TEMPS ALOFT ARE ACTUALLY COLDER BEHIND THIS
FRONT THAN THE CURRENT AIRMASS...SO A HARD FREEZE APPEARS POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
And finally here is the latest RR (expected to replace the RUC later this year). After extensive comparing this morning between models, I've concluded that consensus for areas just north of Houston, east of Austin, SE of DFW will likely get hit hardest later tonight surrounding the CLL-Huntsville area. Probably 3+ there while everyone else ranges 1-2.
19z RR
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
19z RR
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Last edited by Ntxw on Thu Feb 03, 2011 4:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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PTrackerLA
- Category 5
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- Age: 41
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SouthernMet
- Category 3
- Posts: 857
- Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 8:23 pm
- Location: fort worth, tx
Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
336 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011
TXZ135-146>148-158>162-174-175-040500-
/O.CON.KFWD.WW.Y.0003.110204T0300Z-110204T1800Z/
HENDERSON-NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...CORSICANA...
TEAGUE...FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...
WACO...MARLIN...MEXIA...GROESBECK...BUFFALO...CENTERVILLE...
JEWETT...OAKWOOD...CAMERON...ROCKDALE...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...
CALVERT
336 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AREAS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS SNOW
IS LIKELY TO STICK TO THE GROUND GIVEN THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS.
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Nothing that SouthernMet posts, is an official forecast,nor does it reflect views of STORM2K.. SouthernMet is just adding to the great discussions on STORM2K.. Refer to NWS for official forecasts.
-
SouthernMet
- Category 3
- Posts: 857
- Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 8:23 pm
- Location: fort worth, tx
Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
The NWS FTW leaves WWA no WSW and moves WWA Northwest towards Metro most DFW schools have closed for friday FWIW.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
336 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011
TXZ121-122-134-145-040500-
/O.EXA.KFWD.WW.Y.0003.110204T0300Z-110204T1800Z/
KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-ELLIS-HILL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...FORNEY...
WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...EDGEWOOD...
WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...HILLSBORO
336 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO STICK TO THE GROUND GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES BUT
MAY ACTUALLY PROVIDE SOME TRACTION ON ROADS WHICH ARE COVERED IN
ICE.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND PLAN ON SOME TRAVEL DELAYS.
0 likes
Nothing that SouthernMet posts, is an official forecast,nor does it reflect views of STORM2K.. SouthernMet is just adding to the great discussions on STORM2K.. Refer to NWS for official forecasts.
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