Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[MississippiWx]

According to Jackson's latest discussion, Hattiesburg will be lucky to see a flake. I hate this winter.

[Brent]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1215 PM CST WED FEB 9 2011

.UPDATE...WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT TRENDS UPSTREAM...AND VARIOUS MESOSCALE CHARTS...I WOULD
BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE IF WE UPPED OUR SNOW TOTALS A BIT FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM...
THAT HIT SEEMS TO BE A GOOD HONEST UPPERCUT. THERE MAY NOT BE ANY
LAG AT ALL BETWEEN THE TIME THE STEADY SNOW STARTS FALLING AND THE
TIME IT STARTS ACCUMULATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES NOTED IN ARKANSAS. AND WHILE I DON`T
NECESSARILY EXPECT THE TOTALS THEY HAVE GOTTEN/ARE GETTING TO BE
EQUALED HERE...I GET A SENSE THAT THE SYSTEM IS OUTPERFORMING
PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS.

WILL HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICS ON OUR WEBSITE AND A NEW WSW TEXT PRODUCT
OUT WITHIN THE HOUR. THIS UPDATE DOES NOT CHANGE THE WSW AREA AT
ALL...JUST REFINES THE EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS.

/61/

[Lane]

Looks like the snow maps are starting to shift North again.

[TideJoe]

According to Jackson's latest discussion, Hattiesburg will be lucky to see a flake. I hate this winter.

I saw that. We haven't been able to get the cold air in fast enough this year (unlike last year). While it's been cold close to the ground this winter, we've had a lot of warm air aloft and that's killed our best chances at snow.

[Brent]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1220 PM CST WED FEB 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...

OK IT IS TIME TO GO ALL IN WITH THIS ONE. HEAVY SNOW IS PUSHING
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. FIRST THE BAND THAT DEVELOPED EAST ALONG
THE KY/MO BORDER EARLIER THIS MORNING IS STARTING TO SINK SOUTH.
THIS BAND HAS ALREADY DUMPED 7 INCHES OF SNOW IN POCAHONTAS AND
3.5 INCHES IN UNION CITY. MEANWHILE THE MAIN BAND IS PUSHING
ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND INTO THE
MEMPHIS METRO AREA. ALREADY HAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FROM
TUNICA TO MEMPHIS AND POINTS WEST. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE ALL OF THE
MID SOUTH WILL RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND HAVE
EXPANDED THE WARNING TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA.

[MississippiWx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1215 PM CST WED FEB 9 2011

.UPDATE...WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LOOKING AT TRENDS UPSTREAM...AND VARIOUS MESOSCALE CHARTS...I WOULD
BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE IF WE UPPED OUR SNOW TOTALS A BIT FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM...
THAT HIT SEEMS TO BE A GOOD HONEST UPPERCUT. THERE MAY NOT BE ANY
LAG AT ALL BETWEEN THE TIME THE STEADY SNOW STARTS FALLING AND THE
TIME IT STARTS ACCUMULATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES NOTED IN ARKANSAS. AND WHILE I DON`T
NECESSARILY EXPECT THE TOTALS THEY HAVE GOTTEN/ARE GETTING TO BE
EQUALED HERE...I GET A SENSE THAT THE SYSTEM IS OUTPERFORMING
PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS.

WILL HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICS ON OUR WEBSITE AND A NEW WSW TEXT PRODUCT
OUT WITHIN THE HOUR. THIS UPDATE DOES NOT CHANGE THE WSW AREA AT
ALL...JUST REFINES THE EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS.

/61/

Rub it in, why don't you!

[Brent]

Looks like the snow maps are starting to shift North again.

I think everyone's going to overperform probably based on BMX and Memphis's discussion.

[BigB0882]

According to Jackson's latest discussion, Hattiesburg will be lucky to see a flake. I hate this winter.

I saw that. We haven't been able to get the cold air in fast enough this year (unlike last year). While it's been cold close to the ground this winter, we've had a lot of warm air aloft and that's killed our best chances at snow.

Baton Rouge feels your pain. We have been the cut off point for 2 systems in a row, it seems. I don't know if I will even sit up and watch tonight because I have a really full day tomorrow. Unless things drastically change in the next 8-10 hours then I will just head to bed at a decent hour. The warm air aloft has really been the downer. We don't even need the freezing line to be at our door if the cold air is abundant aloft, it just hasn't been this year. Plenty of surface cold, though.

[timmeister]

According to Jackson's latest discussion, Hattiesburg will be lucky to see a flake. I hate this winter.

I think we will see a little snow between midnight and 3 AM, but no accumulations. However, this one map I ran across shows Hattiesburg getting a dusting to 1 inch so we'll have to wait and see how fast the temps drop and how much moisture will be on the back side of the Low. Amazing to me that the temp in Oak Grove is 58.6 right now, but will drop to around 30 by 3 AM. That's a 28 to 29 degree drop!

[MississippiWx]

According to Jackson's latest discussion, Hattiesburg will be lucky to see a flake. I hate this winter.

I saw that. We haven't been able to get the cold air in fast enough this year (unlike last year). While it's been cold close to the ground this winter, we've had a lot of warm air aloft and that's killed our best chances at snow.

We have had 5 or 6 chances this year and not even one could work out for us. The trends are always bad instead of good. Its always people just north of us that get the snow. You'd think one could work out. Oh well. Time to get this stupid winter over with and talk about the upcoming hurricane season!

[Agua]

According to Jackson's latest discussion, Hattiesburg will be lucky to see a flake. I hate this winter.

Honestly, they won't know where and how much until its already happening. Wouldn't surprise me for H'Bush to get a slushy mix.

[Brent]

From James Spann:

This is all confirmed by the NWS Little Rock… they are reporting 17.5 inches at Deer, AR, in Newton County. It is interesting to note that only 4-6 inches, generally speaking, were being predicted for that part of Arkansas. This is a system with excellent dynamic forcing and tremendous UVV values now.

[MississippiWx]

This system is pretty much opposite of the ones earlier. The cold air is going to come from aloft. Heavier precip is better because it will bring cold air to the surface faster. The last system that had freezing rain was different in that heavier precip brought warm air to the surface. That's the reason why temps warmed so much as we went further into the storm.

I had a feeling we would get screwed on this one too just like the other ones.

[SunnyThoughts]

Good luck to all my neighbors to the north... take some pics for some of those down here on the coast with nothing but the cold crappy rain. lol I for one, am sooooo ready for winter to end. Maybe im just getting old and less tolerant than I use to be, but the cold this year is just bone chilling.

[Lane]

Brent, do you think we are still going to see anywhere from 1 to 3 inches, or maybe even bumped up some?

[hurricanedude]

From James Spann:

This is all confirmed by the NWS Little Rock… they are reporting 17.5 inches at Deer, AR, in Newton County. It is interesting to note that only 4-6 inches, generally speaking, were being predicted for that part of Arkansas. This is a system with excellent dynamic forcing and tremendous UVV values now.

As of 930 am CST, huge snowfall amounts were reported. Near Huntsville (Madison County) and Siloam Springs (Benton County), 22 inches of snow was on the ground, with 21 inches at Springdale (Washington County) and almost 18 inches at Deer (Newton County). Near Jasper (Newton County), a foot of snow fell in three hours (between 530 am and 830 am CST).

At Lowell (Benton County), the roof at the police station collapsed due to the weight of the snow. No injuries were noted. Interstate 540 north of Alma (Crawford County) was closed due to the snow and stalled traffic.

[Brent]

Brent, do you think we are still going to see anywhere from 1 to 3 inches, or maybe even bumped up some?

1-3 sounds good to me... with snow totals I like to stay low. But more than 3 is on the table for some areas, hard to say where though, it's very much a nowcast.

[hurricanedude]

From James Spann:

This is all confirmed by the NWS Little Rock… they are reporting 17.5 inches at Deer, AR, in Newton County. It is interesting to note that only 4-6 inches, generally speaking, were being predicted for that part of Arkansas. This is a system with excellent dynamic forcing and tremendous UVV values now.

As of 930 am CST, huge snowfall amounts were reported. Near Huntsville (Madison County) and Siloam Springs (Benton County), 22 inches of snow was on the ground, with 21 inches at Springdale (Washington County) and almost 18 inches at Deer (Newton County). Near Jasper (Newton County), a foot of snow fell in three hours (between 530 am and 830 am CST).

At Lowell (Benton County), the roof at the police station collapsed due to the weight of the snow. No injuries were noted. Interstate 540 north of Alma (Crawford County) was closed due to the snow and stalled traffic.

Local Storm ReportMobile & Email Alerts


02/09/2011 1045 am

Brashears, Madison County.

Heavy snow e14.0 inch, reported by amateur radio.


Measured at 2000 feet msl





02/09/2011 0945 am

Wesley, Madison County.

Heavy snow e15.0 inch, reported by public.





02/09/2011 0950 am

Hindsville, Madison County.

Heavy snow e24.0 inch, reported by trained spotter.





02/09/2011 0950 am

Huntsville, Madison County.

Heavy snow e20.0 inch, reported by public.





02/09/2011 0938 am

Clifty, Madison County.

Heavy snow e24.0 inch, reported by broadcast media.





02/09/2011 0939 am

Kingston, Madison County.

Heavy snow e17.0 inch, reported by broadcast media.





02/09/2011 0931 am

1 miles se of Huntsville, Madison County.

Heavy snow e22.0 inch, reported by public.





02/09/2011 0900 am

Brashears, Madison County.

Heavy snow e8.0 inch, reported by amateur radio.


Measured at elevation 2000 feet msl





02/09/2011 0755 am

Hindsville, Madison County.

Snow e14.0 inch, reported by broadcast media.





02/09/2011 0755 am

Marble, Madison County.

Snow e11.0 inch, reported by broadcast media.






02/09/2011 0755 am

Huntsville, Madison County.

Snow e16.0 inch, reported by broadcast media.





02/09/2011 0755 am

Wesley, Madison County.

Snow e15.0 inch, reported by broadcast media.





02/09/2011 0755 am

Huntsville, Madison County.

Snow e16.0 inch, reported by broadcast media.





02/09/2011 0555 am

Hindsville, Madison County.

Snow e7.0 inch, reported by broadcast media.

[Brent]

LOL, nobody agrees. Just saw one short-term model with not a flake in N AL and now there's this...

[BigB0882]

GFS text output shows .02 QPF of snow for Baton Rouge. If we could get 20:1 ratios we might get a quarter of an inch!

Looking at the radar, there isn't a ton of precip moving our way, it looks to be over relatively quickly. Is that all there will be or is another system tracking by that could bring more overnight? I don't see how we will get anything out of that, it wont crash to freezing quickly enough.