Texas Winter 2010-2011

[txagwxman]

Interesting pattern in the far back of the GFS ensembles going into early March.

[BigB0882]

Interesting pattern in the far back of the GFS ensembles going into early March.

No offense to you but these posts are really aggravating. You couldn't post a picture or at least explain what it is they are showing? Again, the post itself is aggravating, not you!!

[downsouthman1]

Interesting pattern in the far back of the GFS ensembles going into early March.

No offense to you but these posts are really aggravating. You couldn't post a picture or at least explain what it is they are showing? Again, the post itself is aggravating, not you!!

That's a Pro Met. Show some respect!

[BlueNorther]

Interesting pattern in the far back of the GFS ensembles going into early March.

A number of ensemble members are hinting at a return to a cold pattern the last week of Feb and the first week of March; at least it looks that way to me.

[Ntxw]

No offense to you but these posts are really aggravating. You couldn't post a picture or at least explain what it is they are showing? Again, the post itself is aggravating, not you!!

It's really hard to give details this far out, and the Op's are up and down with it, but the overall hints have been a resurgence of some winter. Whether this remains mostly in the northern tier or breaks loose and takes no prisoners is yet to be seen. Just know that with the kind of winter we are having, you shouldn't expect anything less than surprises . These warmers temps should be giving way some at the end of the month.

[downsouthman1]

No offense to you but these posts are really aggravating. You couldn't post a picture or at least explain what it is they are showing? Again, the post itself is aggravating, not you!!

It's really hard to give details this far out, and the Op's are up and down with it, but the overall hints have been a resurgence of some winter. Whether this remains mostly in the northern tier or breaks loose and takes no prisoners is yet to be seen. Just know that with the kind of winter we are having, you shouldn't expect anything less than surprises .

Agreed. Not to mention the fact that Winter has rarely been over on Feb 15th.

[Ntxw]

Here is a comparison of what the 500mb anomalies are now from the 12z GFS and what they could become later in the month.

Currently-ish


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240-ish


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Euro 12z Ensembles


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What is shown by the ensembles is that the SE ridge gives way to the plunging south of colder air into the North American continent.

[downsouthman1]

Here is a comparison of what the 500mb anomalies are now from the 12z GFS and what they could become later in the month.

Currently-ish
[url=http://img23.imageshack.us/i/12zgfsensembles500mbhei.gif/[/url]

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240-ish
[url=http://img517.imageshack.us/i/12zgfsensembles500mbhei.gif/[/url]

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Euro 12z Ensembles
[url=http://img34.imageshack.us/i/12zecmwfens500mbheighta.gif/[/url]

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What is shown by the ensembles is that the SE ridge gives way to the plunging south of colder air into the North American continent.

Though it's impossible to accurately say at this point, it is quite plausible that it will get cold again this winter. That is based on the fact that we normally have our last really cold spell sometime in February or March.

And those models certainly add weight to the lure.

[somethingfunny]

This is really unscientific, but keep an eye on the trees. I'm worried a lot of them will start budding now with the higher sun angle and warm temperatures, only to open themselves up to damage from another hard freeze.

Trees are smart critters though, two years ago in early-mid March I noticed budding and flowering in Garland while the trees in Denison only 60 miles north where I lived at the time were completely barren still. I commented at the time that the trees seemed to know something up along the Red River. Sure enough, the last week of March brought a major snowstorm to the I-40 corridor and about an inch for Grayson County, while DFW just saw rain. The DFW trees knew winter was over, but the Texoma trees knew one last threat was coming.

Then again, none of my trees here in Garland saw the 6" dump coming on Spring Equinox 2010. All of our trees ended up with half-deformed leaves this summer because of it. I hope that doesn't happen again this year. (The early budding that is)

Maybe it's because they're city trees.

They're starting to show little brown nubs, but no green yet. We'll see in a few weeks.

[srainhoutx]

I don't believe you can separate certain teleconnections and say some played a role and some didn't. They all had their roles to play, some bigger than others. I think the AO/NAO played a huge role along with the others. If the NAO wasn't negative, we would have had a persistent Southeast ridge much of the winter which would have precluded a southern storm track. And that retrograding negative NAO trough combined with a deeply negative AO helped plunge a lot of cold air due south into the central and southern Plains.

The PNA also played a big role with its positive phase and sharp West Coast ridging, helping to bring that polar air south.

Seem a lot of references also to minimal solar activity which may have played a role.

Methinks there's going to be a lot of learning going on with meteorologists after this season and it is clear that one cannot just take a Nina or Nino and broadbrush a seasonal forecast.

The sun is quiet no more. Aurora Watch issued as Sun Spot 1158 spit out a impressive series of coronal mass ejections expected to impact Earth in the next 24-48 hours. Perhaps another SSW event is in the offing aided by this eruption...



http://spaceweather.com/

[Portastorm]

Any idea on the length of time it might take from solar flare to stratospheric warming event to displacement of cold air to the lower levels? Several weeks maybe?

Just wondering if the effect of the solar activity might coincide with the possible late Feb-early March cold spell.

[txagwxman]

Any idea on the length of time it might take from solar flare to stratospheric warming event to displacement of cold air to the lower levels? Several weeks maybe?

Just wondering if the effect of the solar activity might coincide with the possible late Feb-early March cold spell.

I have no clue...sometimes it takes several weeks for the stratospheric warming to propagate down and effect the AO...sometimes less.

[jerryh421]

Any idea on the length of time it might take from solar flare to stratospheric warming event to displacement of cold air to the lower levels? Several weeks maybe?

Just wondering if the effect of the solar activity might coincide with the possible late Feb-early March cold spell.

I have no clue...sometimes it takes several weeks for the stratospheric warming to propagate down and effect the AO...sometimes less.

This may be dumb but does this mean it would warm us up or possibly make it colder somehow?

[Portastorm]

This may be dumb but does this mean it would warm us up or possibly make it colder somehow?

Jerry ... not a dumb question at all. Stratospheric warming events tend to add to the potential for cold air outbreaks in the lower 48. But my knowledge of this stuff is very rough and I'm sure others here know more.

Wikipedia has some info here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming

[jerryh421]

This may be dumb but does this mean it would warm us up or possibly make it colder somehow?

Jerry ... not a dumb question at all. Stratospheric warming events tend to add to the potential for cold air outbreaks in the lower 48. But my knowledge of this stuff is very rough and I'm sure others here know more.

Wikipedia has some info here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming

Okay thanks!

[Portastorm]

And right on cue the 12z Euro brings down a healthy cold front around Feb. 26.



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[gpsnowman]

Ahhhh yes, a healthy cold front. And not two weeks out either. I know 10 days is not close either, but it's a start for one more round before winter ends. Let the model watching begin! A late surprise is not out of the question for Texas. Has happened many times.

[txagwxman]

Yep...probably get some freezing drizzle Abilene.

But the GFS ensembles say it won't last at all.

ECMWF shows no stratospheric warming ( I looked at the 50 mb anomaly plots).

[wxman57]

12Z Euro does have 2m temps down to 25 in the Dallas area on the 26th, but the precip is long-gone by the time temps drop into the 30s. Looks like just a run-of-the mill late February front. Upper flow more west to east than north-south.

Still looking for that first 80 deg day of 2011 here so I can bike without winter weather gear...

[Ntxw]

12Z Euro does have 2m temps down to 25 in the Dallas area on the 26th, but the precip is long-gone by the time temps drop into the 30s. Looks like just a run-of-the mill late February front. Upper flow more west to east than north-south.

Still looking for that first 80 deg day of 2011 here so I can bike without winter weather gear...

Amarillo Wxman! A week ago they were way colder than you below 0 and now they are warmer!!! Funny how weather works

Current Amarillo weather: Fair and Breezy 80 °F(27 °C)