Florida Weather

[Aquawind]

Spectacular weather down in SW Florida here with low 80's and low 60's and precious dry air in the forecast as well......yea yea yea..fire danger on the rise. Nothing comes free.

[psyclone]

wonderful weather for spring breakers and natives alike...87 in tampa on sunday...the pinellas beaches were jamming.

[Florida1118]

Its hot and dry...And it will be for the forecasted future. Probably should change the title. The warm up is defiantly already here for all of Florida.

[AdamFirst]

We have about five days straight of forecasted thunderstorm chances upcoming...almost looks like a summertime weather pattern.

Gonna be in the low 90s tomorrow.

[gatorcane]

We have about five days straight of forecasted thunderstorm chances upcoming...almost looks like a summertime weather pattern.

Gonna be in the low 90s tomorrow.

Rainy-season lingo now present in the discussion from NWS Tampa and Miami. Since 1956, the earliest start to the rainy season in South Florida was in 1957 where it started on Apr. 16th. The median date is May 21st.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/?n=summer_season

NWS Tampa snippet:

THEN FOCUS THE HEAVIER RAINS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GETS ENHANCED BY A WEAK EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE.

GENERALLY...EXPECT 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN WED
THROUGH FRI WITH BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW AND
WAIT FOR UPCOMING GUIDANCE BEFORE GOING AN HIGHER

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

ALTHOUGH UPPER LVL DYNAMICS ARE NOT
EXCEPTIONAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...LOCAL FACTORS (AFTERNOON HEATING,
SEA BREEZES) COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCE PRECIP ACTIVITY AND COULD
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW TSTMS AHEAD AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[tropicana]

Surf temperatures also inching up daily across Florida waters.

SURF TEMPERATURES SAT MAR 26 2011

Key West 77F
Upper Keys 80F
Fowey Rock (off Miami) 76F

Ft Pierce 72F
Canaveral 74F
St Augustine 70F

Clearwater Beach 74F
Pensacola 74F
Tyndall AFB Tower (Panama City) 69F

-justin-

[jinftl]

From NWS Miami Discussion - the 20-30% chance of rain on Tuesday is more attributable to a frontal system than the start of the rainy season (although looking at the latest drought indices, we should be preparing to do a rain dance)

THIS FRONT COULD STALL ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOSES ANY UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT, KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.


One thing to look for as an indicator of the start of the rainy season is continuous dew pt readings over 70 deg....dewpts have been steady in the low to mid 60's...still early for the true summer season...it will be here soon enough.


NWS Miami backing off precip chances for the upcoming week in latest Discussion:

.LONG TERM...RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BETWEEN LATEST GFS RUN AND
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE
N-CENTRAL GULF OF MEX BY SATURDAY MORNING IS NO LONGER INDICATED
AS GFS MOVES CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. NOW ONLY AN OPEN LONG
WAVE TROUGH IS INDICATED UNDER A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE PATTERN.
THIS SOLUTION, IF VERIFIES, MAY NOT RESULT IN AS UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

Rainy-season lingo now present in the discussion from NWS Tampa and Miami. Since 1956, the earliest start to the rainy season in South Florida was in 1957 where it started on Apr. 16th. The median date is May 21st.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/?n=summer_season

NWS Tampa snippet:

THEN FOCUS THE HEAVIER RAINS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GETS ENHANCED BY A WEAK EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE.

GENERALLY...EXPECT 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN WED
THROUGH FRI WITH BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW AND
WAIT FOR UPCOMING GUIDANCE BEFORE GOING AN HIGHER

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

ALTHOUGH UPPER LVL DYNAMICS ARE NOT
EXCEPTIONAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...LOCAL FACTORS (AFTERNOON HEATING,
SEA BREEZES) COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCE PRECIP ACTIVITY AND COULD
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW TSTMS AHEAD AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[AdamFirst]

Record-tying high temperature was recorded at Stuart's Witham Field today: 91 degrees.

[psyclone]

large area of showers and thunderstorms moving inland. it just started sprinkling here. hopefully this is the beginning of some needed rainfall over the next few days.

[Florida1118]

Uploaded

Current

[AdamFirst]

It's been a mess here all day. I work at the New York Mets spring training stadium and the game was washed out. So was half of the parking lot.

[psyclone]

a 3.5" dump here today and a potentially significant severe threat coming up on thursday.

[NDG]

As good as it get for a chance of severe wx for this time of the year in the FL Peninsula seems to be taking shape for tomorrow, hopefully the squall line passes through before any daytime heating takes place across central FL, but areas closer to Melbourne, Vero, etc may see good daytime heating giving them higher chance of severe wx, IMO.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2011

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FL
PENINSULA...

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE SIG AREA

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SEWD INTO THE PLAINS AND
LOWER-MID MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE SERN U.S.
THURSDAY. SRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL ACCELERATE EWD THROUGH BASE OF
TROUGH INTO THE NERN GULF AND NRN FL. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT
SHOULD ADVANCE THROUGH ALL BUT SRN PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA.

...FL...

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL ROTATE THROUGH BASE OF SERN
U.S. UPPER TROUGH...INDUCING A WEAK SFC LOW ON FRONT OVER NRN FL OR
SRN GA THAT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD ALONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM. WSWLY DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN...AND A 40-50 KT LLJ WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA DURING THE DAY...MAINTAINING INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE IN
WARM SECTOR. PRIMARY CONCERN AND POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL-NRN FL. IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING FORCING FOR DEEP ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MIGRATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...STORMS SHOULD FORM EARLY OVER THE GULF
AND SPREAD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA. SOME DIABATIC
WARMING MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY...AND INFLUX OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME INTENSIFICATION. STORMS WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN 40-50 KT WLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY
WANE THURSDAY NIGHT AS ZONE OF DEEPER FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE FL
PENINSULA.

..DIAL.. 03/30/2011

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

[Florida1118]

[Florida1118]

For Tomorrow...

[dizzyfish]

Did any of you get those fierce winds with that line earlier? Geez

Happened to be outside with one of the dogs when it hit - my guesstimate is our gusts were upwards of 55 mph. Knocked the neighbors fence down, I checked it a few minutes ago and it broke the 4x4 off about ground level.

[NDG]

2.5 hrs without power and counting here in Seminole County after 60-80+ mph winds. Lots of trees down and mailboxes blown off. The squall line took me by surprise how early it came through.

[Scorpion]

Got hardly anything here, just some gusty winds. Very little rain.

[NDG]

Yeah, that was the weird part of it that the heavy rain was very quick, it just got heavy for about 5 minutes very quickly dissipating. It was just a very quick moving line of storms. Driving around surveying the damage I would say that wind gusts did get close to 80 mph especially on the east side of Bear Lake near my neighborhood where several large branches fell down and somebody pool screen was blown off.
Power finally came back on about an hour ago.

[NDG]

Round two coming for portions of southern central FL, look out St Pete, Bradenton & Sarasota.