WPAC: INVEST 94W
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- Extratropical94
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WPAC: INVEST 94W
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
ECM model has this one starting to gain some steam around May 15th, closer to the Philippines. This might be one to watch if it holds together and if the area continues to stay low shear.
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this one looks more interesting to me, to be honest... and as the above poster said, the EURO has picked up on it too, together with the other models so looks like another fun week ahead...
EDIT (3am EST)...
eerie forecast from the EURO tonight... a strong TS (possibly a TY??) barreling towards Visayas... tsk, tsk, tsk...
EDIT (3am EST)...
eerie forecast from the EURO tonight... a strong TS (possibly a TY??) barreling towards Visayas... tsk, tsk, tsk...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
Yes! I just saw that! The latest EURO update has this REALLY developing and cutting across the central Philippine islands. Might want to get the typhoon kits together a little early down there this season!
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what makes this scarier is the fact that it's the summer season and i'm pretty sure beaches in Visayas are packed right now (Boracay comes to mind) so if a tropical storm does impact the area, it'll be a big problem for sure...
we still have a week to go though so i'm just hoping it recurves or dies out
we still have a week to go though so i'm just hoping it recurves or dies out
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
(edited)
Sorry, the post I made earlier should be on 93W. My bad.
Another one coming? WPAC is starting to roll up.
Sorry, the post I made earlier should be on 93W. My bad.
Another one coming? WPAC is starting to roll up.
Last edited by dexterlabio on Fri May 06, 2011 2:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
These are the euro models. So it seems that the system could affect Visayas, Mindanao and parts of Southern Luzon if the forecast turns out right.
Not good for the people in Visayas. It's been raining hard on some portions of Visayas and Bicol for days because of 93W's circulation. Still has a long way to go, so let's just see what it does.
Not good for the people in Visayas. It's been raining hard on some portions of Visayas and Bicol for days because of 93W's circulation. Still has a long way to go, so let's just see what it does.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- ManilaTC
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
Well, well... as expected for a declining La Nina period, TC's pop up!
Taking a line from the great one (The Rock that is...)
Finally... TC activity HAS COME BACK!!!... to the WestPac!
Taking a line from the great one (The Rock that is...)
Finally... TC activity HAS COME BACK!!!... to the WestPac!
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The above post is NOT official and should not be used as such. It is my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. Please refer to your official national weather agency.
WEB http://goo.gl/JDiKXB | FB https://goo.gl/N5sIle | @ManilaTC
WEB http://goo.gl/JDiKXB | FB https://goo.gl/N5sIle | @ManilaTC
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
Wow...They really backed away from this one, quick. I'm glad you posted those pictures, dexter. It shows we weren't crazy and that the EURO did predict a strong tropical cyclone. LOL
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
^No problem.
Euro models have been doing well with their medium-range forecasts. As far as I remember, the euro models got the track right for storms like Parma and Mirinae in 2009. Well, not for the long-range ones.
Many things can happen in the coming weeks. All we can do now is to wait and observe...and focus our attention to the tropical storm right beside PI.
Euro models have been doing well with their medium-range forecasts. As far as I remember, the euro models got the track right for storms like Parma and Mirinae in 2009. Well, not for the long-range ones.
Many things can happen in the coming weeks. All we can do now is to wait and observe...and focus our attention to the tropical storm right beside PI.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- StormingB81
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not to be forgotten JTWC upgrades to poor
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.4N 142.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. A 090408Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS AN UNORGANIZED LLCC AND A 090006Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE WEAK
CIRCULATION WITH WESTERLY 15-20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.4N 142.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION. A 090408Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS AN UNORGANIZED LLCC AND A 090006Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE WEAK
CIRCULATION WITH WESTERLY 15-20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
FIM is spinning it up and tracking toward Japan.
http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=fim:&runTime=2011050912&plotName=mslp_sfc&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=41&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=240&resizePlot=1&domain=w_pacific&wjet=1
Pretty good mid-level PV already.
http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=fim:&runTime=2011050912&plotName=mslp_sfc&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=41&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=240&resizePlot=1&domain=w_pacific&wjet=1
Pretty good mid-level PV already.
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Re:
phwxenthusiast wrote:yeah, FIM has been depicting for days now... EURO 12z is also showing it too... heading close to the Philippines...
PV, Polar Vortex?? can you please explain what it would mean??
It is potential vorticity.
It is a good way to describe a TC in an expanding tropopause, allowing it to spin up.
Also, latent heating helps to push the PV circulation to the surface.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_vorticity
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