Severe Weather - Week of May 22 Sunday thru Thursday

[CrazyC83]

Triple point area. Probs 60/30.

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 358
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN COLORADO
WESTERN KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF LAMAR
COLORADO TO 60 MILES SOUTH OF RUSSELL KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 354...WW 355...WW
356...WW 357...

DISCUSSION...DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORMS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH PRONOUNCED
VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21030.


...MEAD

[snoopj]

Starting to get a couple of cells that are rapidly forming in SW Oklahoma right now.

[RL3AO]

[CrazyC83]

Best coverage sources IMO:

Central/western Oklahoma - KWTV Oklahoma City (http://www.news9.com)

Eastern Oklahoma - KOTV Tulsa (http://www.newson6.com)

Central/western Kansas - KSNW Wichita (http://www.ksn.com)

North Texas - not sure?

[CrazyC83]

SW Kansas - tornado warning soon probably.

WWUS53 KDDC 241854
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
154 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

KSC189-241930-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-110524T1930Z/
STEVENS KS-
154 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
STEVENS COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 151 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO
TENNIS BALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HUGOTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

AT 148 PM...QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HUGOTON.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUGOTON...
MOSCOW...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN STEVENS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK TO MODERATE ROTATION WITHIN THIS
STORM. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE
OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3714 10137 3726 10143 3737 10143 3739 10142
3735 10115 3720 10107
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 230DEG 17KT 3722 10133
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 2.50IN

$$

AWJ

[CrazyC83]

Already a meso and near-severe hail on the Elk City cell.

[Texas Snowman]

Already a meso and near-severe hail on the Elk City cell.

Given the parameters in play, I would expect most cells to reach severe limits almost immediately.

Probably most cells will show rotation very quickly too.

[CrazyC83]

WUUS54 KOUN 241903
SVROUN
OKC039-043-242000-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0246.110524T1903Z-110524T2000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
203 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN DEWEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 203 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BUTLER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ARAPAHO...BUTLER...CENTRAL FOSS
RESERVOIR...CUSTER CITY...EXTREME WESTERN CANTON LAKE...HUCMAC...
OAKWOOD...PUTNAM...SEILING...STAFFORD AND TALOGA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH NO ADVANCE WARNING.
MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STORM SHELTER... BASEMENT OR STURDY BUILDING IF
A TORNADO IS SIGHTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3617 9907 3616 9868 3592 9863 3587 9863
3550 9904 3556 9922
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 204DEG 30KT 3560 9911

$$

[snoopj]

One of those Western Oklahoma storms has finally got to severe status.

That was quite literally 30 minutes from first pickup on the lowest tilt to severe status.

[Texas Snowman]

One of those Western Oklahoma storms has finally got to severe status.

That was quite literally 30 minutes from first pickup on the lowest tilt to severe status.

Buckle your seat-belt, liable to get crazy very quickly over the next 6-9 hours.

[Bunkertor]

KS, two days ago

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/us/201 ... tka?hpt=T2

[RL3AO]

[CrazyC83]

US53 KDDC 241908
TORDDC
KSC067-081-175-189-241945-
/O.NEW.KDDC.TO.W.0003.110524T1908Z-110524T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
208 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN HASKELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN SEWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN STEVENS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 206 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MOSCOW. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH. LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOSCOW AND CAVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3738 10135 3743 10117 3742 10106 3736 10103
3725 10104 3722 10132 3734 10137
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 231DEG 22KT 3728 10125
HAIL 2.50IN

$$

AWJ

[CrazyC83]

000
ASUS44 KOUN 241910
RWROK

WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
200 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

OKZ001>007-009>012-014-015-017-242000-
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLE

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
GAGE SUNNY 96 32 10 S25G37 29.49F HX 90
GUYMON MOSUNNY 82 53 36 W16G25 29.51F
ENID/VANCE AFB MOSUNNY 87 71 60 S24G35 29.55F HX 92
ENID/WOODRING MOSUNNY 88 72 58 S21G30 29.55F HX 94
$$

OKZ016-021>023-033>039-044-045-242000-
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
LAWTON/REGL MOSUNNY 89 72 56 SE22G32 29.56F HAZE HX 96
LAWTON/FT SILL PTSUNNY 87 72 61 S23G31 29.56F HX 93
FREDERICK MOSUNNY 94 68 42 S29G35 29.51F HX 98
CLINTON MOSUNNY 90 67 46 S28G39 29.54F HX 93
HOBART PTSUNNY 90 68 48 S25G39 29.54F HX 94
ALTUS AFB MOSUNNY 92 68 44 S26G36 29.51F HX 97
$$

OKZ018>020-024>031-242000-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
OKLAHOMA CITY CLOUDY 81 72 74 S23 29.60F
OKC/WILEY POST MOSUNNY 82 71 69 S23G35 29.59F
OKC/TINKER AFB PTSUNNY 82 72 71 S23G31 29.62F
GUTHRIE MOSUNNY 85 72 65 S20G28 29.58F HX 91
$$

OKZ008-013-054>072-242000-
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
TULSA CLOUDY 83 70 64 S15G26 29.64F
TULSA/JONES PTSUNNY 85 71 63 S20G30 29.64F HX 90
PONCA CITY MOSUNNY 84 70 62 S14G25 29.58F
BARTLESVILLE CLOUDY 80 70 71 S13G22 29.65F
MUSKOGEE CLOUDY 80 71 74 S16G24 29.70F
$$

OKZ032-040>043-046>053-073>077-242000-
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
ARDMORE/DWNTWN CLOUDY 77 66 69 S15G25 29.67F
MCALESTER CLOUDY 82 71 69 S18G26 29.69F
$$

[CrazyC83]

Farther south.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0930
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PARTS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241915Z - 242045Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY INTO
CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. AS CELLS INITIATE...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. A
TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS THE
REGION.

A DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WEST TX AND IS STARTING TO
ADVANCE MORE QUICKLY EWD. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS
JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM NEAR WICHITA FALLS SWD TO NEAR SAN
ANGELO. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS NOW GONE ACROSS THE MCD AREA AND
STORM INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE DRYLINE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG INSTABILITY
IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...PROFILER DATA SUGGEST 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 40
KT. THE SHEAR SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE AS A 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST MAKING CONDITIONS VERY FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS SHOULD HAVE A THREAT
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. IN
ADDITION...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
ALSO RESULT IN A TORNADO THREAT WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO
THREAT POSSIBLE AS WELL.

..BROYLES.. 05/24/2011


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 33489878 33289954 32670021 32070059 31440101 30860136
30390120 30070082 30059997 30329859 31449784 32769769
33489878

[snoopj]

Now all the cells in Western Oklahoma have SVR T-Storm warnings associated with them.

[Brent]

BreakingNews: Fire official: 1,500 remain unaccounted for in Joplin - nytimes http://nyti.ms/lVGs44

[Texas Snowman]

Now all the cells in Western Oklahoma have SVR T-Storm warnings associated with them.

Doubt it will be long before there are some tornado warnings...

[CrazyC83]

No less than 6 supercells in western Oklahoma right now. They are trying to break from each other.

[snoopj]

No less than 6 supercells in western Oklahoma right now. They are trying to break from each other.

Might be a bit of a break at the moment. Maybe the cells are feeding off each other and keeping them from growing to full potential at the moment. I've heard that happens with cells in close proximity to each other.