Caribbean - Central America Weather

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msbee
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Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather

#8961 Postby msbee » Wed Jun 08, 2011 12:06 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
msbee wrote:Good morning!

We just had a heavy thunderstorm here. very heavy rain fell for about an hour. things are quieting down now.

Could you send some to the Southern states of the US??



I would love to send some your way.. We are getting flooded out here. We have had over 3 inches this morning and it is still raining.
check my blog for some pictures of what my road and house look like right now.
http://barcann.livejournal.com/225544.html

Luise, i am so sorry to hear that bad news.
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Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather

#8962 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 08, 2011 2:14 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
218 PM AST WED JUN 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO EAST NORTHEAST WHILE DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVES OVER THE FA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AND SATELLITES IMAGES SHOWED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTHEAST OF THE FA. THE GFS
COMPUTER GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER...PWAT
VALUES WILL REMAIN GREATER OR CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME DECENT MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA...MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...CLOUDINESS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH.
THIS WILL CAUSE LOCAL EFFECTS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO RETURN
TO THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
EACH DAY IN PUERTO RICO. FLASH FLOODING ON SOME DAYS IS ALSO
INDICATED IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS UNTIL HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE END. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT THAT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS INTERIOR PUERTO RICO WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS UNTIL 09/00Z. TSTMS EXPECTED BTWN 18-22Z IN
OR NEAR TJSJ. LLVL WINDS E-S TO 10 KNOTS BELOW 6 KFT. ABV 6KFT
WINDS W 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 78 87 / 30 40 20 50
STT 78 84 80 85 / 30 30 20 20
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Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather

#8963 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 08, 2011 10:24 pm

:sun: :sun: :sun: :sun: Finnally,for the next few days,the pattern shifts to a more normal one. And that last paragrafh is very interesting.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
748 PM AST WED JUN 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RIDGE WILL THEN FLATTEN AS A NEW TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
WRN ATLC. TRADE WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION BY THE START TO THE
WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THINGS TO FINALLY RETURN TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH PREVAILING EASTERLIES AND SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE TAKING FULL
CONTROL OF THE REGION. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS BUT STILL DECENT AMOUNT ENOUGH TO
FUEL DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN/NW PR.

LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE A NICE DEPICTION OF AN AFRICAN
EASTERLY WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE PASSING ACROSS THE ERN
CARIB NEXT THU JUN 16. THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER
OF STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 10N AND 20W. WEAKENING
MJO/NEGATIVE 200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES ACROSS THE WRN
HEMISPHERE AND TIME OF THE YEAR DO NOT FAVOR ANY TC DEVELOPMENT.
ONE INTERESTING NOTE IS LACK OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE TROP ATLC
AND WRN AFRICA ATTM WHICH TYPICALLY TENDS TO DOMINATE THIS AREA
DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE. NESDIS BLENDED TPW IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
TROP ATLC WITH A HIGHER WATER VAPOR CONTENT THAN NORMAL PERHAPS A
HARBINGER OF THINGS TO COME LATER THIS HURRICANE SEASON.
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Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather

#8964 Postby Macrocane » Wed Jun 08, 2011 11:48 pm

After a few days of cooler than normal highs in Central America they returned to near normal values today, only Nicaragua remained with cooler than normal temps:

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16°C (61°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.7°C (47.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 14.3°C (57.7°F).
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.9°C (73.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.2°C (61.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 25.0°C (77°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.8°C (56.8°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 33°C (91°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26°C (79°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.1°C (70.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 35°C (95°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.3°C (86.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.9°C (69.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 33.5°C (92.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 31°C (88°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 30°C (86°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.2°C (81.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.7°C (89.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.0°C (91°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.2°C (73.8°F)
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Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather

#8965 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 09, 2011 5:28 am

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 AM AST THU JUN 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND MOVES
OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GIVING WAY TO A NORMAL TRADE
WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER CLOUDS MOVING
EASTWARD WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD.
RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN THIRD OF
PUERTO RICO EXPERIENCED SHOWERS OF LIGHT INTENSITY DURING OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXCEPT IN THE WEST COAST...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COASTS SHOWED LAND BREEZES THAT HELPED TO
MAINTAIN THE SHOWERS OVER WATERS.

SATELLITE DERIVED TPW CONTINUES TO INDICATE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. THIS COINCIDE WITH THE GPS-
MET PW DATA THAT SHOWS VALUES AROUND 2.1 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO.
HOWEVER... THE DENSE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
COULD LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL HEATING ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND THIS
WILL LIKELY LIMIT IMPACT OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PUERTO RICO. NEVERTHELESS...ANY BREAK
IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO TRIGGER THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...SPOTTY
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...NORTHWEST AND NORTH SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. FOR THE WEEKEND...WE WILL LIKELY SEE LESS SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS A MID HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
LEADING TO THE EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT PREVAILING VFR CONDS ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.
BUT SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS AGAIN TO DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR PR
BY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY
OVER NW QUARTER PR TIL 10/00Z. LLVL WIND BLW 6 KFT VRBL 10 KT OR
LESS...NW 10 TO 15 KT ABV.


&&

.MARINE...A TRANQUIL MARINE CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WIND WAVES OF 2 TO
4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 11 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 77 / 50 20 40 20
STT 84 78 86 80 / 30 20 20 30
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Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather

#8966 Postby msbee » Thu Jun 09, 2011 7:51 am

Good morning
The heavy rains from yesterday caused some flooding on St. Maarten.

http://www.thedailyherald.com/islands/1-islands-news/17580-severe-weather-causes-flooding.html

The sun looks like it is trying to break through today hopefully.
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#8967 Postby BZSTORM » Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:57 am

for anyone who's interested this is the provisional report by Jan Meerman who manages Belize Biodiversity organization, about the aftermath of Hurricane Richard on the wildfires in Belize Feb - May 2011. Also has reports of rainfall averages for 2010/11. So although Hurr Richard didn't go through any major populated areas, it devastated protected areas forestry and savana areas, debris which fueled the wildfires added with drier than normal dry season leaving causing major damage to protected areas.
http://biological-diversity.info/Downlo ... Report.pdf

An example of how aftermath of a storm can be as devastating as the actual storm months later.
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Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather

#8968 Postby msbee » Thu Jun 09, 2011 12:46 pm

wow, very interesting report. Thanks for posting it.
Most people don't think about the long term effects hurricanes have on our eco systems.
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Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather

#8969 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 09, 2011 12:49 pm

I agree with Barbara on that point. A new round of flood advisories up as diurnal showers fall in parts of PR.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
122 PM AST THU JUN 9 2011

PRC007-021-025-031-033-047-051-061-063-105-127-135-137-139-143-
092015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0214.110609T1722Z-110609T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CAGUAS PR-COROZAL PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-GURABO PR-
NARANJITO PR-TOA ALTA PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-
GUAYNABO PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-
122 PM AST THU JUN 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...COROZAL...AGUAS BUENAS...GURABO...
NARANJITO...TOA ALTA...TRUJILLO ALTO...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...
GUAYNABO...CAROLINA...CATANO...SAN JUAN AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 121 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THE CELLS WERE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHEAST.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1822 6616 1828 6621 1828 6636 1849 6635
1846 6599 1843 6597 1825 6597

$$

SNELL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather

#8970 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 09, 2011 2:28 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST THU JUN 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A TROUGH/LOW NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE ANTILLES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A CLOSED CENTER MEANDERING OVER
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/LOW
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS PULLS AWAY AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FROM
THE EAST. AS A RESULT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO FUEL DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO...
ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND TJSJ AND TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 09/22Z. AFT
09/22Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ/TISX/TIST AND
TNCM/TKPK.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WIND WAVES
OF 2 TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 11 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 89 78 / 60 20 40 20
STT 84 80 87 80 / 30 20 20 30
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Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather

#8971 Postby Macrocane » Thu Jun 09, 2011 10:41 pm

And the warm temperatures returned today to Central America, above normal highs were registered in most of the region, in El Salvador it felt more like early May than June.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.6°C (69.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.3°C (48.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.4°C (68.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.6°C (54.7°F).
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 19.6°C (67.3°F) Warmest since May 8.
Liberia, Costa Rica 24.8°C (76.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.5°C (61.7°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32°C (90°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 31.4°C (88.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27°C (81°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 37°C (99°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.4°C (72.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.2°C (97.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 30°C (86°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 30.8°C (81.0°F) Warmest since April 2.
Liberia, Costa Rica 30.4°C (87.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.0°C (91.4°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.4°C (72.3°F)
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Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather

#8972 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:54 am

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
557 AM AST FRI JUN 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE OVERALL DRIEST AFTERNOON OF THE NEXT FEW
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...WITH THIS AFTERNOON...SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS STILL LOOKING UNSETTLED DESPITE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
TO MID-MORNING HOURS. VCTS ASSIGNED FOR TJPS UNTIL 10/14Z DUE TO
SPOTTY CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. ANOTHER DIURNAL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR. AS A RESULT...TEMPO PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHRA/TSRA CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS TJMZ...TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ FROM 10/17Z TO
10/21Z. SURFACE WINDS ARE MAINLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 78 / 20 20 20 20
STT 87 79 88 81 / 30 30 30 20
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Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather

#8973 Postby msbee » Fri Jun 10, 2011 8:00 am

Good morning

The latest from CROWN WEATHER:

Issued: Friday, June 10, 2011 550 am EDT/450 am CDT

If you cannot see the maps, images and weather related graphics in your e-mail, you can view the entire forecast with the maps, images and weather related graphics at:
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557 .

Invest 94-L Is “Alive” Once More, However, Development Is Not Expected:


An elongated low pressure system, once again designated Invest 94-L, stretches from the northwestern Caribbean into the Bahamas. There are plenty of showers and thunderstorms across central and eastern Cuba as well as across the entire island chain that is the Bahamas. This convection is pushing off to the northeast and this will likely leave Florida high and dry as northerly winds advects drier air into the state exasperating the very dry conditions and the wildfire threat.
Wind shear of 30 to 50 knots will greatly inhibit any development as it tracks northeastward this week well off of the US East Coast and I do not expect any type of development. One thing this area of disturbed weather may do is become absorbed into a trough of low pressure tracking off of the US East Coast by early next week. This could create a scenario where the Canadian Maritimes and eastern New England receives heavy rainfall right around Wednesday, much like a nor’easter.

Elsewhere in the tropics, there are no other areas of concern and I do not expect tropical cyclone development for at least the next several days.

Finally, I wanted to point out some very interesting and thought provoking ideas that the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico wrote in their Wednesday afternoon discussion about the tropical waves over the eastern Atlantic, various model guidance scenarios and the role of the lack of Saharan Dust may play later on in this hurricane season. Even though today is Friday, their analysis still applies:

“LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE A NICE DEPICTION OF AN AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE PASSING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEXT THU JUN 16. THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 10N AND 20W. WEAKENING MJO/NEGATIVE 200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES ACROSS THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND TIME OF THE YEAR DO NOT FAVOR ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERESTING NOTE IS LACK OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND WESTERN AFRICA AT THIS TIME WHICH TYPICALLY TENDS TO DOMINATE THIS AREA DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE. NESDIS BLENDED TROPICAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH A HIGHER WATER VAPOR CONTENT THAN NORMAL PERHAPS A HARBINGER OF THINGS TO COME LATER THIS HURRICANE SEASON.”

My take on this is that it is not out of the question that we may see a much earlier than normal Cape Verde hurricane season, much like 2008 and 1996 and it is not out of the question that we may be dealing with a July Cape Verde hurricane if these conditions across Africa continues.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 6 am EDT/5 am CDT Monday morning. I do not plan on writing any tropical weather discussions this weekend unless something unexpected pops up.
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Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather

#8974 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 10, 2011 1:48 pm

:sun: :sun: :sun: Finnally for a change, a clear blue sky in San Juan after a few weeks of cloudy and rainy days.Also,the temperatures are climbing to the low 90's.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
220 PM AST FRI JUN 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A CLOSED CENTER MEANDERING OVER
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. MEANWHILE...DEEP MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY ERODE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS...BUT THERE WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO FUEL DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.
AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AS A RESULT UNCOMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO CAN BE EXPECTED. LOOKING AHEAD...MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A PASSAGE OF AN AFRICAN EASTERLY
WAVE NEXT THURSDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED WITH A WIND
SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PR EACH AFTERNOON...INDUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS TJBQ. SURFACE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 20 20 20 20
STT 87 80 89 80 / 30 30 30 20
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#8975 Postby bvigal » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:33 pm

449 pages... going for 1000? Is there a prize? ;-)
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Re:

#8976 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:45 pm

bvigal wrote:449 pages... going for 1000? Is there a prize? ;-)


Hi my friend at the BVI! Of course nothing like that. That shows that the Caribbean and Central American folks are comming to post their observations and to post the advisories. Also shows that some bad weather has been in the region in off season months and that causes the thread to turn active before the Hurricane season starts.
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Re:

#8977 Postby msbee » Fri Jun 10, 2011 9:31 pm

bvigal wrote:449 pages... going for 1000? Is there a prize? ;-)


Hi girl..welcome back!
how's everything?
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Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather

#8978 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 10, 2011 9:48 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1024 PM AST FRI JUN 10 2011

.UPDATE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO QUICKLY DIMINISHED AFTER SUNSET
LEAVING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER LAND. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
OCCURRED OVER THE ADJACENT ISLANDS INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
WHERE LITTLE OF NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED DURING THE EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
AND SOME CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT SO FAR NO PRECIPITATION
WAS NOTED ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE ISLANDS.

LATEST TJSJ 11/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING WAS FAIRLY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS...
WITH A PREVAILING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED
TO SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY DRIER PATTERN COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...HOWEVER
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT
EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO INDUCE AREAS OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ONE OR TWO PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SOIL REMAIN SATURATED AND UNSTABLE ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BRIEF BUT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING IN ISOLATED AREAS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 11/18Z. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR
BETWEEN 11/18Z THROUGH AT LEAST 11/23Z...INDUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS
TJBQ AND TJMZ. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10
KTS OR LESS.
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Re: Caribbean- Central America Weather

#8979 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 11, 2011 5:36 am

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST SAT JUN 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL
BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THEN LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY. HOWEVER...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE OVERALL DRIEST AFTERNOON OF THE NEXT FEW STILL LOOKS TO
BE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS
STILL LOOKING A BIT UNSETTLED DESPITE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. SOUTHEAST OR EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW NORTH COASTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 89
TO 94 DEGREE RANGE. AFTER A 93 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN SAN JUAN
(LMMIA) ON FRIDAY...EXPECT A NEAR RECORD HIGH OF 92 DEGREES
TODAY...WITH THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH BEING 93 DEGREES SET IN 1974.

LOOKING AHEAD...STILL APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS NEAR
OR ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY ALTHOUGH A SEA BREEZE WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES BEGINNING AROUND 11/15Z. SOME SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED TO FORM
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR AFT 16Z BUT WILL
ONLY CARRY VCTS FOR THE TJBQ AND TJMZ...GIVEN THE SCT COVERAGE.
ANY CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO END AROUND 11/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 77 91 78 / 20 20 20 20
STT 88 79 89 80 / 30 20 20 20
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Re: Re:

#8980 Postby bvigal » Sat Jun 11, 2011 8:18 am

bvigal wrote:449 pages... going for 1000? Is there a prize? ;-)


cycloneye wrote:Hi my friend at the BVI! Of course nothing like that. That shows that the Caribbean and Central American folks are comming to post their observations and to post the advisories. Also shows that some bad weather has been in the region in off season months and that causes the thread to turn active before the Hurricane season starts.


msbee wrote:Hi girl..welcome back!
how's everything?


Hola Luis & Barbara! Things about the usual over here. I haven't been 'gone' just no comments on Caribbean, a few on the flooding, tornados, fires devasting America this spring. Hope you're ready for a busy season and have your stress-reduction plan in place... ;-)
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