Disturbance in Central Atlantic

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Hurricane

Disturbance in Central Atlantic

#1 Postby Hurricane » Mon Jun 13, 2011 2:53 pm

Storms popping up. There's a tropical wave associated with it.
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Last edited by Hurricane on Mon Jun 13, 2011 3:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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wxman57
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Re: Disturbance in Central Atlantic

#2 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jun 13, 2011 2:56 pm

I give it about 0.01% chance of development.
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Hurricane Jed
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#3 Postby Hurricane Jed » Mon Jun 13, 2011 3:01 pm

No chance. Too far south and going to run into South America.
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#4 Postby Gustywind » Mon Jun 13, 2011 4:02 pm

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#5 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Jun 13, 2011 9:05 pm

The only place it might have a shot is the Western Carib. in about a week and over into the BOC.
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Hurricane

#6 Postby Hurricane » Tue Jun 14, 2011 1:36 pm

GFS has been very consistent with this system, tracking it into the Gulf (long-range).
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Re:

#7 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 14, 2011 1:46 pm

Hurricane wrote:GFS has been very consistent with this system, tracking it into the Gulf (long-range).


I cannot track this wave into the Gulf using GFS. It takes the vorticity into South America and dissipates it within 48hrs. Tracking it along using continuity takes it into the East Pac by early next week. GFS develops the low in the SW Gulf well beyond then. It's almost certainly a bogus development. Can't trust the GFS that far out.
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Re: Disturbance in Central Atlantic

#8 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Jun 16, 2011 9:27 am

Hurricane wrote:GFS has been very consistent with this system, tracking it into the Gulf (long-range).



I agree about the bogus development. That's okay though, because come late July early August, things are really giong to start to explode, so I'm sure we can wait.... :wink:
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