ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281810
AF308 01AAA INVEST HDOB 15 20110628
180030 2025N 09348W 9699 00330 0072 +230 +197 279003 004 019 000 03
180100 2025N 09350W 9703 00327 0072 +230 +195 277002 003 024 001 00
180130 2024N 09352W 9704 00327 0073 +229 +194 275003 004 027 006 03
180200 2024N 09353W 9700 00330 0072 +230 +197 298003 004 022 000 00
180230 2024N 09355W 9696 00334 0072 +231 +195 325004 004 023 000 03
180300 2023N 09356W 9701 00330 0072 +231 +198 344005 006 024 001 03
180330 2023N 09358W 9700 00331 0073 +233 +201 351005 005 022 000 00
180400 2023N 09400W 9698 00333 0073 +232 +197 354005 006 021 000 00
180430 2023N 09401W 9701 00330 0073 +235 +198 355006 007 022 000 00
180500 2022N 09403W 9699 00332 0073 +235 +198 356007 008 022 000 00
180530 2022N 09405W 9699 00331 0073 +233 +196 002007 008 /// /// 03
180600 2024N 09405W 9697 00334 0074 +235 +199 003004 004 023 000 03
180630 2025N 09406W 9700 00332 0074 +235 +202 356004 005 022 000 00
180700 2027N 09406W 9698 00334 0073 +236 +202 008003 003 022 000 00
180730 2028N 09406W 9698 00333 0073 +238 +199 349003 004 020 000 00
180800 2030N 09406W 9704 00327 0073 +234 +198 347005 005 021 000 03
180830 2031N 09407W 9703 00329 0074 +230 +199 016004 005 020 000 00
180900 2033N 09407W 9698 00333 0075 +230 +200 014006 007 021 000 03
180930 2034N 09407W 9701 00330 0074 +230 +199 021007 007 021 000 03
181000 2036N 09407W 9699 00332 0073 +230 +199 034006 007 022 000 00
$$
;

[JonathanBelles]

IMO, I believe that before the recon heads out later this afternoon they will go ahead in making a TD, with a pressure of 1006mb, west wind and at least TD force winds to the north of the low pressure center, they should upgrade it.
They have not sampled yet the eastern half of the system where the strongest convection is located.

There is no minimum requirement for "TD strength" winds. If the NHC decides to go for the renumbering, it will be decided upon good organization (less areas of 5-15kt winds as we are seeing now), and 360° winds.

[Dave]

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro out...down to 998mb at landfall

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro out...down to 998mb at landfall

[Ivanhater]

Well 12z Euro out and now has it down to 998mb before landfall. This looks like it will become Arlene before landfall imo. Kudos to the GFS for sniffing this system out well in advance. The GFS was wrong about the system last week developing but did sniff out the pattern first while the Euro is now playing catch up.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281820
AF308 01AAA INVEST HDOB 16 20110628
181030 2037N 09408W 9699 00332 0073 +234 +197 040007 008 021 001 03
181100 2039N 09408W 9701 00330 0073 +236 +198 039010 010 022 000 00
181130 2040N 09408W 9698 00333 0073 +236 +196 038010 011 022 000 00
181200 2042N 09409W 9700 00330 0073 +238 +198 040011 012 022 000 00
181230 2043N 09409W 9700 00331 0073 +237 +200 042011 012 022 000 00
181300 2045N 09409W 9700 00331 0073 +235 +197 045012 012 021 000 00
181330 2046N 09410W 9700 00331 0073 +235 +197 040012 013 022 000 00
181400 2048N 09410W 9698 00334 0074 +235 +201 041013 013 023 000 00
181430 2049N 09410W 9698 00333 0074 +235 +202 044013 013 022 000 00
181500 2051N 09410W 9703 00329 0074 +235 +199 038013 013 021 000 00
181530 2052N 09411W 9699 00332 0074 +233 +201 038012 013 022 000 00
181600 2054N 09411W 9697 00334 0073 +235 +207 042013 013 021 000 00
181630 2055N 09411W 9703 00329 0073 +235 +203 040012 013 021 000 03
181700 2057N 09411W 9699 00331 0073 +235 +203 038012 013 021 000 00
181730 2058N 09412W 9701 00330 0073 +235 +205 036012 012 020 000 00
181800 2100N 09412W 9698 00333 0073 +239 +206 038012 012 021 000 00
181830 2101N 09412W 9701 00330 0073 +238 +201 037012 013 021 000 00
181900 2103N 09412W 9699 00333 0074 +239 +208 033012 012 022 001 03
181930 2104N 09412W 9697 00334 0073 +235 +203 025011 011 /// /// 03
182000 2104N 09410W 9704 00328 0073 +235 +201 020011 011 022 000 03
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

Now flying at low levels = 90% FL to surface in most cases, unless the SFMR dictates otherwise.

Generally:

Flying below 960mb (low levels) = 90% - typically for weak systems

Flying at 925mb = 75% - typically for weak tropical storms

Flying at 850mb = 80% - typically for strong tropical storms and small hurricanes

Flying at 700mb = 90% - typically for large or intense hurricanes

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be a broad or weak circulation, but not enough of one for me to think it is a tropical cyclone.

[wxman57]

What is your percentage for Arlene forming from this?

Before seeing the NHC's 70% that's what we came up with. In reality, though, I think the chances of it being upgraded to a TD before moving inland tomorrow night are closer to 80-90%. Whether or not it's named Arlene will depend upon if we have any direct observations of TS winds, possibly from recon tomorrow afternoon/evening. I'd estimate those chances (of Arlene) to be maybe 60% to 70%.

For now, it just lacks any organized convection near the weak LLC. Not there yet.

[Dave]

[Hurricane]

What is your percentage for Arlene forming from this?

Before seeing the NHC's 70% that's what we came up with. In reality, though, I think the chances of it being upgraded to a TD before moving inland tomorrow night are closer to 80-90%. Whether or not it's named Arlene will depend upon if we have any direct observations of TS winds, possibly from recon tomorrow afternoon/evening. I'd estimate those chances (of Arlene) to be maybe 60% to 70%.

For now, it just lacks any organized convection near the weak LLC. Not there yet.

Always good to have a professional's opinion. That actually sounds funny coming from you! Lol

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281830
AF308 01AAA INVEST HDOB 17 20110628
182030 2104N 09408W 9700 00330 0072 +235 +203 021011 011 022 000 00
182100 2104N 09407W 9702 00328 0072 +235 +205 022010 011 022 000 00
182130 2103N 09405W 9698 00332 0071 +235 +201 025010 011 021 000 00
182200 2103N 09404W 9699 00331 0071 +235 +201 028010 010 022 000 03
182230 2103N 09402W 9699 00330 0071 +235 +203 026010 010 021 000 00
182300 2103N 09400W 9699 00329 0071 +235 +203 035010 010 022 000 03
182330 2103N 09359W 9699 00330 0071 +235 +205 039009 009 020 000 00
182400 2103N 09357W 9700 00329 0070 +235 +201 042008 009 019 000 03
182430 2103N 09355W 9701 00328 0070 +235 +206 044008 009 020 000 03
182500 2103N 09354W 9698 00330 0070 +235 +206 043008 008 021 000 03
182530 2103N 09352W 9699 00329 0069 +235 +205 039008 009 019 000 00
182600 2103N 09350W 9699 00328 0069 +236 +204 043009 009 020 000 03
182630 2103N 09349W 9700 00328 0069 +235 +202 050010 010 020 000 03
182700 2103N 09347W 9700 00326 0068 +235 +202 056010 010 020 000 03
182730 2104N 09346W 9701 00325 0068 +235 +202 066009 010 021 000 00
182800 2104N 09344W 9699 00327 0068 +235 +206 062008 009 020 000 03
182830 2104N 09342W 9700 00327 0068 +234 +199 067008 009 019 000 00
182900 2104N 09341W 9697 00329 0068 +235 +204 067008 009 019 000 00
182930 2104N 09339W 9700 00326 0067 +234 +201 063008 008 022 000 00
183000 2104N 09338W 9700 00324 0067 +234 +203 067009 009 020 000 00
$$
;

[South Texas Storms]

Well 12z Euro out and now has it down to 998mb before landfall. This looks like it will become Arlene before landfall imo. Kudos to the GFS for sniffing this system out well in advance. The GFS was wrong about the system last week developing but did sniff out the pattern first while the Euro is now playing catch up.

I agree. 5 days ago the GFS had the system heading to the TX/MX border. It was pretty accurate with the strength and just 100 miles off on the possible landfall spot. Not too bad for 5 days out.

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281840
AF308 01AAA INVEST HDOB 18 20110628
183030 2104N 09336W 9700 00324 0066 +233 +201 065009 009 019 000 00
183100 2104N 09334W 9694 00330 0066 +233 +204 067007 007 019 000 00
183130 2104N 09333W 9698 00325 0065 +230 +206 075006 006 020 000 03
183200 2104N 09331W 9698 00326 0065 +230 +203 083005 006 019 000 00
183230 2104N 09329W 9700 00323 0065 +232 +206 090004 005 018 000 00
183300 2104N 09328W 9699 00324 0065 +232 +206 091004 005 018 000 00
183330 2104N 09326W 9701 00322 0065 +235 +200 094004 004 019 000 03
183400 2104N 09325W 9699 00324 0064 +233 +206 094003 003 018 000 00
183430 2104N 09323W 9699 00324 0064 +233 +204 097003 003 017 000 00
183500 2104N 09321W 9701 00322 0064 +235 +201 143003 004 019 000 00
183530 2104N 09320W 9699 00324 0064 +235 +206 141004 005 020 000 03
183600 2104N 09318W 9698 00324 0064 +234 +205 175004 006 023 000 03
183630 2104N 09316W 9701 00322 0064 +234 +208 162008 009 026 000 00
183700 2104N 09315W 9698 00325 0063 +232 +204 158010 011 026 000 00
183730 2104N 09313W 9696 00326 0064 +231 +202 166011 012 025 000 00
183800 2104N 09311W 9694 00327 0064 +230 +203 171011 012 021 000 00
183830 2104N 09310W 9701 00322 0064 +231 +202 167011 012 022 000 03
183900 2104N 09308W 9694 00328 0064 +232 +199 171013 013 023 000 00
183930 2104N 09306W 9701 00321 0064 +231 +197 174014 014 027 000 00
184000 2104N 09305W 9702 00322 0066 +224 +198 172014 014 030 001 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Any west winds found?

[HURAKAN]

Any west winds found?

yes but very, very weak

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

Up to 30kts.

AL, 95, 2011062818, , BEST, 0, 209N, 933W, 30, 1006, DB

[NDG]

Convection is a lot closer to the developing LLC, recon just found 30 knot winds very close to it.