ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

[beagleagle23]

Southern Miss to the TOP!

Oh yeah! Another USM Fan. Good to see!

[Ivanhater]

Yep...hardly any convection near the CC....no TC....and unless a lot more convection developes near the CC then 95L should remain unclassified.....MGC

I disagree. The NHC going to 90 percent is indicative that they will classify it imo. They just want to see a little more convection near the center which should happen overnight and tomorrow as shear lessens even more.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

getting close!

[Goradd]

i believe this storm might go where alot of storms in this area go...La Pesca/Soto La Marina...there is already rain showers and some pretty stong in Brownsville, TX....so hopefully it will land further north for more rain hehe

[Extratropical94]

Tomorrow's aircraft is scheduled to depart at 1500Z/1100AM EDT.

[MGC]

Did Recon transmit a VDM? I have not seen one.

I think 95L will require considerably more convection to be classified. 95L has only been producing scattered convection and unless surface convergance really increases overnight then the disturbance will run out of water before sufficient organization is present to qualify as a TC....MGC

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Mission Map:



Closeup:

[lrak]

i believe this storm might go where alot of storms in this area go...La Pesca/Soto La Marina...there is already rain showers and some pretty stong in Brownsville, TX....so hopefully it will land further north for more rain hehe

Please let it be true, it does appear to be a little further North than was expected yesterday.

[Extratropical94]

In what direction it is flying now?

It has been going NNW for quite a long time but now it is heading back home (NE)

[Ivanhater]

Did Recon transmit a VDM? I have not seen one.

I think 95L will require considerably more convection to be classified. 95L has only been producing scattered convection and unless surface convergance really increases overnight then the disturbance will run out of water before sufficient organization is present to qualify as a TC....MGC

I'm not sure about a VDM but this is from the latest TWO.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WAS ABLE TO
LOCATE A LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO
DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME.

[cycloneye]

There is a models thread to post those track graphics.

[beagleagle23]

:uarrow: There is a models thread to post those track graphics.

Oh Sorry! I am new here. I will post it up there.

[lebron23]

This should be enough to spark off a few isolated showers throughout the texas coast obviously the more south you go the more rain

[HURAKAN]

tropical cyclone:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone - check

originating over tropical or subtropical waters - check

organized deep convection - no check

a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center - semi check

[HURAKAN]

Btw, the 90% chance of development is over the next 48 hours, which is very agreeable.

[lebron23]

Heavy Rain in Brownsville ...Wind gusts to 31MPH

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 281530
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.0N 93.0W TO 20.5N 97.2W
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. REMARKS: A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 85 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT AS WELL AS
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OUTFLOW MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30KTS OVER THE REGION ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE BY 291530Z.//

[PauleinHouston]

Question for experts here (or anyone with more knowledge than me...and that's most everyone, )...does anyone think that the tropical wave may have significantly outrun the still bit broad LLC and this is hindering the convection on the Western periphery of the developing system?

[AJC3]

Question for experts here...does anyone think that the tropical wave may have significantly outrun the still bit broad LLC and this is hindering the convection on the Western periphery of the developing system?

I'm confused as to what you're asking here. The T-wave has actually become the broad circulation. That's how it works.

[PauleinHouston]

Question for experts here...does anyone think that the tropical wave may have significantly outrun the still bit broad LLC and this is hindering the convection on the Western periphery of the developing system?

I'm confused as to what you're asking here. The T-wave has actually become the broad circulation. That's how it works.

Yeah, figured that the LLC was a Twave spinoff, but it appeared as though the associated convection with the wave axis as it approached the central BOC surged ahead of the current LLC.