Development on either side of Central A? (Is invest 97L)

[Rgv20]

Its going to be a big mess in Central America late this week going into the weekend.

12zECMWF Saturday Morning


12zGFS Saturday Morning


12zUKMET Saturday Morning

[cycloneye]

Yikes Macrocane! No change to the very wet scenario for that part of the world.

EPAC discussion at 22:05 UTC

LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE...CROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WED AND THU. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH
BECOMING UNUSUALLY STRONG. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UNUSUALLY STRONG
MONSOON TROUGH...A SURGE OF SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY
MONDAY MORNING FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 100W WITH FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED. THE PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG SW
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 10-12 FT BY MON NIGHT
AND UP TO 13 FT BY TUE NIGHT OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA. MARINE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS TO 30 KT SOUTH OF COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA BY THU. PERSISTENT STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL
BRING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO...POTENTIALLY GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK.
WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST ON THIS
POSSIBLE SCENARIO.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2149.shtml?

[cycloneye]

The 18z GFS has almost the same as in past runs with two cyclones in the EPAC and SW Caribbean,although in this particular run,the EPAC side is somewhat less strong than the SW Caribbean.After it makes landfall in Nicaragua,it buries in Central America with more dumping of rain.In other words is a mess in the development front and on the rainy front for Central America.



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[ROCK]

18Z NOGAPS holding to its guns with a farther north scenario....MY guess is where this (if anything) sets up shop will determine if it gets buried in CA or makes its way into the BOC.....I can say this...dont count on this death ridge over the NGOM to remain in the long range....it will break down...JMO

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Rgv20]

By day 10 the 12zECMWF Ensembles are much weaker with the ridge than the operational run, just a wait and see scenario.



Also 12zGFS Ensembles are hinting at a possible weakening of the ridge by day 11.

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

0Z NOGAPS even farther north up the yucatan before turning into the BOC....

[Rgv20]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2011071000&set=Tropical

0Z NOGAPS even farther north up the yucatan before turning into the BOC....

That is yesterday 0z run, new 0z run should begin updating around 11:15 cdt.

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2011071000&set=Tropical

0Z NOGAPS even farther north up the yucatan before turning into the BOC....

That is yesterday 0z run, new 0z run should begin updating around 11:15 cdt.

yep my bad....0z run now out afew hours.....

[South Texas Storms]

When do most models show cyclogeneis starting to occur?

[cycloneye]

NOGAPS believe it or not has been the only model that has been persistant with developing in the Western Caribbean than the other models. Even GFS that was bullish for many runs,at 00z it was less enthusiastic.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[GCANE]

Two strong hot-towers are firing off the east Nicaragua coast.

[cycloneye]

From EPAC discussion at 16:05 UTC:

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W WILL CROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BY MID-WEEK...WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH
BECOMING UNUSUALLY STRONG. STRONG W-SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF
05N E OF 94W WITH WINDS TO 30 KT LIKELY S OF BOTH GUATEMALA AND
COSTA RICA. PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 10-12 FT MON NIGHT AND TO 13 FT TUE NIGHT
S OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING INTO
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT
THROUGH FRI.

[cycloneye]

Something taking shape near Nicaragua?



Bouy 42057 reports pretty high gusts,but pressure is not very low.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

[Ivanhater]

This area looks very interesting today.

[latitude_20]

Yes it does - should make for an interesting next few days...

[KWT]

Does look quite interesting today!

[GCANE]

A lot better looking then the 10% Yellow Circle IMHO.

[ROCK]

anticyclone close to it....light shear
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Sanibel]

I think we have curvature in the disturbance over Honduras. This area has shown a tendency for development already this year. All depends on track.

[cycloneye]

NHC mentions it but.......

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.