WPAC: TOKAGE - Tropical Depression (09W, Hanna)

[supercane]

Looks like JTWC picked the wrong area with 91W to focus on, as 92W is now up on the NRL site N of Yap.
20110711.0514.mtsat2.x.wv1km.92WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-167N-1355E.100pc.jpg

ABPW10 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/110600Z-120600ZJUL2011//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) <snip>
(2) <snip>
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.7N 135.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 460 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
DEVELOPING LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE LLCC IS
LOCATED BENEATH AN ANTICYCLONE WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//

[StormingB81]

So that low is 92w no 91w? Sorry baout that I didnt see it on the NRL site when I posted if tha tis the case.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Here we go again - they're being ridiculous this season.

[KWT]

Yeah the JWTC seem to be investing everything!

[StormingB81]

Remains low:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.7N
135.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE TO
ORGANIZE AROUND AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE LLCC EXISTS WITHIN A DIFFUSE AND FRAGMENTED MONSOON TROUGH. A
120121Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 10-15 KNOT NORTHWESTERLIES FLOWING INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. AN 112316Z AMSU-B IMAGE REVEALS DRY AIR
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
TUTT CELLS ON BOTH THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
THE TUTT CELLS ARE CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON POLEWARD OUTFLOW
THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE 120000Z UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS, HOWEVER, DOES INDICATE THAT THE LLCC EXISTS IN
A DIFFLUENT REGION AND A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE TUTT CELLS MAY OPEN A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. CURRENTLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 30 TO 31
DEGREES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[supercane]

Still quite messy, both on satellite:

and with the underlying flow as seen by ASCAT:

[StormingB81]

Still remians low..

) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4N
132.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 133.7E, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTION AND IMPROVING
ORGANIZATION. A 121917Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWS MORE ABUNDANT
BANDING, BUT THERE REMAINS A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE A
PRODUCT OF STRAIGHT-LINE CONVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS A DISORGANIZED OUTFLOW PATTERN, DUE
MOSTLY TO AN EXTENSIVE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) THAT
STRETCHES EAST TO WEST ALONG THE 21ST LATITUDE. OUTFLOW IS INHIBITED
OVER THE POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE, ENHANCED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT, AND DECENT BUT NOTHING SPECIAL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. THE UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS EXTENSIVE
DIVERGENCE OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
ESTIMATED AT 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
31 DEGREES. THE 130000Z PGTW GRADIENT LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
REVEALS A CLOSED, ALBEIT WEAK CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[StormingB81]

from JMA:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 16N 132E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[supercane]

Improved organization with an exposed circulation:


18Z JMA analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 15N 134E ALMOST STATIONARY.

Latest SAB Dvorak estimate 1.5/25kt vs JTWC Dvorak estimate 0.5:
TPPN12 PGTW 140040
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (E OF PHILIPPINES)
B. 13/2332Z
C. 14.7N
D. 133.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T0.5/1.0 STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .10 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDED .5 DT. PT REMAINS 1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST

TXPQ27 KNES 132344 CCA
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)
B. 13/2032Z
C. 15.0N
D. 133.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...CORRECTION FOR HEADER ID FROM TXPQ22 TO TXPQ27
MICROWAVE SUITE (PARTICULARLY AMSRE) SHOWED EXTREMELY ELONGATED
CONVERGENCE LINE ORIENTED SW TO NE YET STILL HAD ENOUGH DEFINITION TO
DETECT A CENTER. ISOLATED AND NOT PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS BURST OVER
THE LLC LIKELY WITH STRONG OUTFLOW POSSIBLY DISRUPTING THE DEVELOPED
OF THE CYCLONIC SFC CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...MAIN PERSISTENT CONVECTION
AREA TO SW CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED AND IS ABOUT 1.25 DEGREES FROM THE
ILL DEFINED LLC USING SWIR LOOP FOR AT DT OF 1.5. MET IS 1.5 AND PT IS
1.5 AS WELL...FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
13/1636Z 14.9N 133.7E AMSRE
...GALLINA

[phwxenthusiast]

now a TD by JMA's 00z analysis... this is getting interesting!

[dexterlabio]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is one consistent blob. I thought this is going to dissipate but the convection still remains. But if wants to be a TC, it needs to hurry up before Ma-on comes near and be absorbed into the stronger circulation. I'm thinking that if this fails to develop until tomorrow, its outflow will be disrupted by Ma-on, otherwise it will partially interact with Ma-on as the stronger typhoon goes north.

[StormingB81]

Now what was said before..if it becomes a storm and develops and moves north it will push Ma-an north?

[dexterlabio]

now a TD by JMA's 00z analysis... this is getting interesting!

Yeah. But I hope the setup wouldn't be too complicated to the point when we are confused on which one is going where.

Good thing for this invest, at least its days-long of existence paid off and JMA recognizes it as a TD.

[dexterlabio]

Now what was said before..if it becomes a storm and develops and moves north it will push Ma-an north?

As far as I know, the weaker one will track towards the stronger one but it would appear that they will be both spinning around a common center...if I didn't get it wrong about Fujiwara effect. I remember something like this happened between the weakened TS Parma and TY Melor in 2009. Haven't seen much of Melor's track back then because I was focused on Parma so I didn't know how DCI affected Melor's track.

[euro6208]

Watching the Loops for this system, This looks like a small Tropical Storm based on its increasing deep convection over a nice LLCC. add in the good outflow and persistent for the last couple of days.

14/0232 UTC 14.8N 132.4E T1.0/1.5 92W -- West Pacific


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[StormingB81]

TCFA just issued:

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 14.1N 133.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 133.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER AN INCREASINGLY MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 140426Z AMSU IMAGE AND A 132321Z SSMIS IMAGE
SHOW SPIRAL LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH A MAJORITY
OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN BANDS. A 140040Z
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM
THE NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS
LOCATED IN A REGION OF HIGHLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (<15 KNOTS). CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY IS TEMPORARILY HINDERED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTH, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND A HIGHLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150600Z.//

[oaba09]

There's definitely a "spin" based on the sat loops....Still a small system but it's starting to look good...

[supercane]

TPPN12 PGTW 140618
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (E OF PHILIPPINES)
B. 14/0532Z
C. 13.7N
D. 132.4E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
1.0 DT. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HATHAWAY

[euro6208]

i forecast that this will at least get upgraded to our 8th depression before getting swallowed up by ma-on.

[dexterlabio]

What a petite system we have here. I can also see some spinning over its center. This could have potential to grow even more if not because of Ma-on who seems to affect 92W's outflow. The satpics showing Ma-on and this system reminds me more of David and Goliath.