ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

Heres the percentages of what might happen storm going into the gulf 10% and out to sea 70% and the chances of a Carolinas hit is 20% based on current movement

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 180625
AF308 0202A BRET HDOB 24 20110718
061530 2755N 07706W 8491 01542 //// +145 //// 109029 030 034 011 01
061600 2754N 07707W 8490 01542 //// +145 //// 109030 030 033 012 05
061630 2753N 07709W 8495 01536 //// +142 //// 110032 032 033 012 01
061700 2752N 07710W 8495 01535 //// +145 //// 107032 033 034 011 01
061730 2751N 07711W 8492 01536 //// +145 //// 107033 033 032 011 01
061800 2749N 07713W 8492 01536 //// +147 //// 106032 033 032 008 01
061830 2748N 07714W 8494 01534 //// +150 //// 107034 034 032 007 01
061900 2747N 07715W 8493 01534 //// +147 //// 106036 036 032 007 05
061930 2746N 07717W 8491 01536 //// +146 //// 106036 036 032 006 01
062000 2745N 07718W 8495 01531 //// +140 //// 104036 036 032 008 01
062030 2743N 07719W 8490 01535 //// +140 //// 105032 033 034 008 01
062100 2742N 07721W 8495 01530 //// +138 //// 106034 036 037 008 01
062130 2741N 07722W 8494 01530 //// +130 //// 103034 036 037 013 05
062200 2740N 07724W 8495 01526 //// +128 //// 102030 032 040 017 01
062230 2738N 07725W 8486 01532 //// +131 //// 096029 031 045 023 05
062300 2737N 07726W 8500 01518 //// +125 //// 095037 047 051 028 05
062330 2736N 07728W 8497 01523 //// +127 //// 103030 037 050 022 01
062400 2735N 07729W 8497 01518 //// +129 //// 108034 036 044 016 01
062430 2734N 07730W 8494 01522 //// +125 //// 113031 035 041 016 01
062500 2732N 07732W 8484 01526 //// +126 //// 108025 034 046 021 01
$$
;

[Ivanhater]

Still dropping south

[Florida1118]

Heres the percentages of what might happen storm going into the gulf 10% and out to sea 70% and the chances of a Carolinas hit is 20% based on current movement

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Close enough lol...According the NHC, Bermuda has the higest chance of TS winds by Saturday, with 11%. US is all 3-6%


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)

CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)

WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

PATRICK AFB 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

$$

[xironman]

0Z Euro sees it and brings it NNE until hr 48. By hr 72 Bret is pummeled by shear and washes out.

[summersquall]

I think I was totally wrong about the BAM being used for weaker systems, so scratch what I said above. LOL.

Re: BAM model

"For a weak hurricane without a well-developed eye wall extending deep into the atmosphere, or for a tropical storm, the shallow version of the model may work well, because storms of this nature tend to be steered by low-level winds. As the storm grows stronger and the eye wall gets deeper the deeper versions become more accurate, for these types of storms are steered more by the winds in the upper-level. "

http://www.hurricanealley.net/hurmdls.htm

Bret may qualify.

I think you were right.

[SouthDadeFish]

Well yes there are three versions of the BAM model, and are very helpful tools since they can be run so quickly. My point was the dynamical models are better

[artist]

Can someone take over posting the obs for me? This ole lady needs to hit the hay!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml?
HDOB obs
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?
Vortex messages

the last HDOB is 24
HDOB 24 20110718
and the last vortex was at
A. 18/05:12:20Z

[Jevo]

This all

[MississippiWx]

Well yes there are three versions of the BAM model, and are very helpful tools since they can be run so quickly. My point was the dynamical models are better

Definitely!

[BigB0882]

Bret sure is a funny little thing, trying to keep all of us on our toes and doing a good job. He seemed to come out of no where, he formed quickly and moved wherever the heck he wanted to so far. Let's see if the models can figure him out. It will be fun to look back when he is gone and see how the models did after he formed, they should be doing better than they are, IMO, but it is like they can't quite catch up with him and he is always one step ahead.

[BigB0882]

Didn't the 0Z Euro initialize all wrong though? I think it had the MB too high.

[artist]

Can someone take over posting the obs for me? This ole lady needs to hit the hay!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml?
HDOB obs
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?
Vortex messages

the last HDOB is 24
HDOB 24 20110718
and the last vortex was at
A. 18/05:12:20Z

[artist]

000

[Florida1118]

000
URNT15 KNHC 180635
AF308 0202A BRET HDOB 25 20110718
062530 2731N 07733W 8512 01502 //// +128 //// 127020 022 045 018 01
062600 2730N 07734W 8494 01520 //// +125 //// 135017 019 042 018 01
062630 2729N 07736W 8489 01520 //// +128 //// 131019 026 045 015 01
062700 2728N 07737W 8493 01513 //// +129 //// 122024 027 044 013 01
062730 2727N 07738W 8489 01513 //// +132 //// 140027 028 043 011 01
062800 2726N 07739W 8498 01503 //// +138 //// 134029 031 041 011 01
062830 2725N 07741W 8491 01507 //// +137 //// 121030 032 040 010 05
062900 2723N 07742W 8500 01497 //// +143 //// 130035 036 043 007 01
062930 2722N 07743W 8491 01501 //// +150 //// 120036 039 045 006 01
063000 2721N 07745W 8491 01495 //// +147 //// 111037 039 046 010 01
063030 2720N 07746W 8492 01489 //// +143 //// 098038 040 052 014 05
063100 2719N 07747W 8491 01484 //// +141 //// 098041 047 054 015 01
063130 2717N 07749W 8499 01474 //// +145 //// 097040 042 056 012 01
063200 2716N 07750W 8480 01485 //// +151 //// 092036 041 052 012 05
063230 2714N 07751W 8510 01446 //// +177 //// 059033 034 052 007 01
063300 2713N 07752W 8501 01458 //// +196 //// 060025 030 044 001 05
063330 2711N 07752W 8494 01461 //// +205 //// 048018 019 032 002 01
063400 2709N 07753W 8496 01452 //// +206 //// 027016 017 027 002 05
063430 2708N 07752W 8497 01453 //// +205 //// 349014 015 021 001 01
063500 2706N 07752W 8492 01454 //// +205 //// 298019 024 016 000 01
$$
;

[Florida1118]

Can someone take over posting the obs for me? This ole lady needs to hit the hay!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml?
HDOB obs
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?
Vortex messages

the last HDOB is 24
HDOB 24 20110718
and the last vortex was at
A. 18/05:12:20Z

I got it for ya

[artist]

thanks Florida! I'm out!

[Florida1118]

No problem

000
URNT15 KNHC 180645
AF308 0202A BRET HDOB 26 20110718
063530 2705N 07751W 8495 01452 //// +202 //// 280028 030 025 000 01
063600 2703N 07750W 8480 01464 //// +201 //// 271031 032 /// /// 05
063630 2704N 07748W 8496 01457 //// +195 //// 255026 029 /// /// 05
063700 2706N 07748W 8499 01448 //// +201 //// 254014 020 025 000 05
063730 2707N 07748W 8494 01451 //// +211 //// 274004 006 025 000 05
063800 2709N 07749W 8498 01447 //// +217 //// 050006 009 018 000 01
063830 2710N 07750W 8491 01456 //// +213 //// 067012 013 /// /// 05
063900 2709N 07751W 8503 01447 //// +211 //// 035014 015 025 001 05
063930 2708N 07753W 8488 01461 //// +209 //// 008018 020 029 001 01
064000 2707N 07754W 8495 01457 //// +206 //// 352021 022 034 001 05
064030 2706N 07755W 8494 01464 //// +206 //// 333025 027 037 000 05
064100 2704N 07756W 8483 01479 //// +199 //// 328031 031 040 002 01
064130 2703N 07757W 8491 01481 //// +181 //// 317033 034 043 007 01
064200 2702N 07759W 8492 01485 //// +182 //// 308043 046 043 005 01
064230 2700N 07800W 8501 01481 //// +179 //// 309046 048 041 003 05
064300 2659N 07801W 8476 01515 //// +167 //// 311041 042 040 005 05
064330 2658N 07802W 8496 01498 //// +158 //// 307040 040 038 003 01
064400 2657N 07803W 8490 01512 //// +157 //// 307038 039 034 002 05
064430 2656N 07805W 8492 01513 //// +155 //// 306036 037 031 002 01
064500 2655N 07806W 8504 01506 //// +157 //// 306035 036 032 003 01
$$
;

[Florida1118]

000
URNT15 KNHC 180655
AF308 0202A BRET HDOB 27 20110718
064530 2654N 07807W 8494 01521 //// +162 //// 302034 034 031 002 05
064600 2653N 07808W 8493 01521 //// +165 //// 296035 036 031 001 05
064630 2652N 07809W 8496 01524 //// +159 //// 294035 036 027 001 05
064700 2651N 07810W 8498 01520 //// +159 //// 290034 034 026 000 05
064730 2650N 07811W 8486 01537 //// +156 //// 295033 034 028 001 05
064800 2649N 07813W 8491 01530 //// +154 //// 298032 033 026 002 01
064830 2648N 07814W 8492 01531 //// +158 //// 299029 030 027 003 05
064900 2647N 07815W 8494 01530 //// +166 //// 303029 029 028 001 05
064930 2645N 07816W 8492 01534 //// +165 //// 306028 029 027 000 05
065000 2644N 07817W 8500 01529 //// +165 //// 307030 031 033 004 05
065030 2643N 07818W 8488 01541 //// +165 //// 304030 031 022 001 05
065100 2642N 07819W 8495 01536 //// +164 //// 303027 028 023 000 05
065130 2641N 07821W 8494 01538 //// +165 //// 307028 028 /// /// 05
065200 2640N 07822W 8491 01541 //// +162 //// 306028 028 /// /// 05
065230 2639N 07823W 8490 01542 //// +163 //// 310029 031 /// /// 05
065300 2637N 07824W 8500 01532 //// +160 //// 308029 030 /// /// 05
065330 2636N 07825W 8491 01542 //// +159 //// 306024 027 /// /// 05
065400 2635N 07827W 8492 01542 //// +162 //// 304025 025 010 000 05
065430 2635N 07827W 8492 01542 //// +166 //// 304024 025 008 000 05
065500 2633N 07829W 8496 01538 //// +164 //// 307023 024 006 001 01
$$

[Florida1118]

000
URNT12 KNHC 180700
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL982011
A. 18/06:37:30Z
B. 27 deg 07 min N
077 deg 48 min W
C. 850 mb 1448 m
D. 45 kt
E. 334 deg 7 nm
F. 101 deg 46 kt
G. 003 deg 11 nm
H. 1001 mb
I. 15 C / 1466 m
J. 22 C / 1462 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF308 0202A BRET OB 08
MAX FL WIND 52 KT SE QUAD 05:16:00Z
Curvature North and East. Heavy rain inbound from NE.
;