ATL: CINDY - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CINDY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
1100 PM AST WED JUL 20 2011

...CINDY A LITTLE STRONGER AND MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 51.6W
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1355 MI...2180 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.6 WEST. CINDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
BUT CINDY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER
INCREASINGLY COLDER WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
1100 PM AST WED JUL 20 2011

CINDY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE OR SATELLITE PRESENTATION OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A TIMELY 0058 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS
SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 40-45 KT VECTORS IN A GENERALLY CONVECTION-FREE
REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45
KT ON THIS ADVISORY. CINDY IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
20-25 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...AND A 2302 UTC SSMIS PASS INDICATED
THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

CINDY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SAME STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT
WILL BE CAUSING TROPICAL STORM BRET TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/21. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND CINDY WILL
CONTINUE ON A QUICK NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF ITS
LIFE. THE GFDL APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AND SHOWS A SHARP NORTHWARD
TURN JUST AFTER 24 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE GFS. THIS
TRACK IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM AS CINDY REMAINS
OVER WATER OF AT LEAST 24C. THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COLDER WATER. THE GLOBAL MODEL
FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD OPEN UP BY 72
HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PREDICTS DISSIPATION BY THAT
TIME.

THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS LOWERED TO 1004 MB BASED ON DRIFTING BUOY
44943...WHICH CROSSED THE PATH OF CINDY AND REPORTED A WELL-
CALIBRATED PRESSURE OF 1007.3 A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 36.3N 51.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 38.5N 48.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 41.3N 44.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 44.0N 39.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/0000Z 46.8N 33.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

11 pm advisory: 45 kt. Not sure the source of that, maybe ship data.

From 11 PM discussion.

A TIMELY 0058 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS
SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 40-45 KT VECTORS IN A GENERALLY CONVECTION-FREE
REGION SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45
KT ON THIS ADVISORY.

[HurrMark]

Looking through the Hurdat files, I can't find a gap of tropical silence big enough to contain 20 harmless storms.
Some years like 1990 had no landfall and 14 storms but some storms roared onto the US coastline in late 89 and early 91 limiting this "streak".

Yeah, I checked the HURDAT data...this is a record. The next longest streak is 14, from Jerry in 1989 to Marco in 1990 (for TS or greater, the streak continues to Bob the next year, but that is still only 17). After that, the next longest streak is 12, in 1863. There have been 6 streaks of 11+ (interestingly, two were in 2007 and 2008...again showing how lucky we have been in recent years) and 11 streaks of 10+ (six since 2000).

Someone told me the other day that some study showed that if global warming is affecting hurricane activity, it may be beneficial for the US because the long wave patterns would favor tracks away from the US. I wonder if that is what is going on...

[HurrMark]

Here is an interesting factoid...assuming Bret and Cindy don't do something completely unexpected and turn back towards the US (you probably have a better chance winning the lottery and getting struck by lightning the same day), we would have gone 20 consecutive storms, going back to last year, without one making landfall the US mainland (Hermine did impact Texas, but technically it was a Mexican landfall). The last one to do so was Bonnie. I wonder if this is a record...anyone have an idea?

I have some friends who work in reinsurance and they are having a really hard time. When you get a big stretch like this without serious impacts people start to wonder why they are even buying insurance. They forget so quickly and the market gets soft...

I work in the insurance industry...this is definitely a soft market. The tornadoes from the spring might have some impact, but CAT premiums are pretty darn low right now.

[MONTEGUT_LA]

It's weird seeing "Cindy" again. I remember when Cindy went through Louisiana in 2005... Plenty of relatives in the Lafayette/New Orleans area. They talk about Cindy this way: "We went to bed expecting a moderate tropical storm and woke up to a fairly intense, strengthening hurricane." Of course Katrina overshadowed Cindy a few months later.

Yeap, I remember Cindy very well. The news said light rain and a little wind for Terrebonne Parish. So, I stayed at work; on my way home, we seen flying mailboxes and garbage cans everywhere. The second we made it in the door, it got really bad. I though the picture window was gonna come flying out of the wall. My mom swears she will never stay home for the TS (well at the time is was said to be a TS) ever again, no matter what the weather man says.

[somethingfunny]

Here is an interesting factoid...assuming Bret and Cindy don't do something completely unexpected and turn back towards the US (you probably have a better chance winning the lottery and getting struck by lightning the same day), we would have gone 20 consecutive storms, going back to last year, without one making landfall the US mainland (Hermine did impact Texas, but technically it was a Mexican landfall). The last one to do so was Bonnie. I wonder if this is a record...anyone have an idea?

I have some friends who work in reinsurance and they are having a really hard time. When you get a big stretch like this without serious impacts people start to wonder why they are even buying insurance. They forget so quickly and the market gets soft...

I work in the insurance industry...this is definitely a soft market. The tornadoes from the spring might have some impact, but CAT premiums are pretty darn low right now.

Sounds like a good time to buy then.

[somethingfunny]

Hello there who's this?



AL, 03, 2011072106, , BEST, 0, 375N, 501W, 50, 1002, TS

[KWT]

Interesting, looks like Cindy is becoming stronger then quite alot of us were expecting, now upto 50kts and developing a very good presentation with an eye type feature, pretty normal of a strong TS that far north and from cold cored origins.

[AHS2011]

Does anyone think that Cindy will become a hurricane?

[Macrocane]

I don't think so, to far north and it will be running out of "warm" waters soon. Anyway, Cindy has been a fighter and it has done a good job strengthening in a more or less unfavorable environment.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

Remains at 50kts.

AL, 03, 2011072112, , BEST, 0, 394N, 484W, 50, 1002, TS

[HurricaneBelle]

From the 5AM Discussion:

CINDY HAS DEVELOPED A DOUGHNUT HOLE IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTION.

Mmmm...Doughnut.

[HURAKAN]

Eye feature resurfaces

[HURAKAN]

21/1145 UTC 39.3N 48.0W T2.5/2.5 CINDY

tropical and 35 knots

[hurricanefloyd5]

21/1145 UTC 39.3N 48.0W T2.5/2.5 CINDY

tropical and 35 knots

ships and bouys reporting 55kts surface winds

[HURAKAN]

latest visible

[CrazyC83]

Based on the ship and buoy reports and likelihood of stronger winds elsewhere, I would go with 60 kt.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
1100 AM AST THU JUL 21 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CINDY HAS SEVERAL RAGGED CONVECTIVE
BANDS AROUND THE CENTER THIS MORNING. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT FROM TAFB AND REMAIN 35 KT FROM
SAB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE SYSTEM DURING
THE LAST 24 HR...WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/25. CINDY IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND STEER CINDY GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE LEFT SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AS
WELL.

CINDY IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GULF STREAM AND SHOULD
SOON ENCOUNTER STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS
AND THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MOSTLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...CALLING FOR CINDY TO DISSIPATE BY THE 72 HR POINT. ONE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IS TO DELAY THE COMPLETION OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY 12 HR BASED ON THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 40.3N 47.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 42.7N 43.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 45.9N 38.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 49.8N 32.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 23/1200Z 52.0N 26.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

latest visible

Cindy looks like she is becoming extratropical in that pic, for example note the increasingly coma like structure of the system & and a developing feature on the southern flake that looks like a proto-cold front. Cindy certainly looks more subtropical than purely tropical now.