EPAC: DORA - Remnants

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL OF DORA HAS
BECOME MORE INTENSE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE EYE
STAYING MOSTLY CLEAR. VISIBLE PICTURES ARE RATHER SPECTACULAR WITH
MESOVORTICES NOTED WITHIN THE DISTINCT EYE. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE
BETWEEN 127-140 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 135 KT.
DORA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A DECLINE IN STRENGTH LATER TODAY AS IT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO A BIT COOLER WATERS. THE WEAKENING SHOULD
BECOME RATHER RAPID BY LATE TOMORROW DUE TO MUCH COLDER WATERS AND
SOME MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE LGEM MODEL.

THE LATEST MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/11. DORA SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY LOWER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO RIDGING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE RIDGE
STRENGTH AFTER THAT TIME...AND CONSEQUENTLY THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK CONTINUES OR DORA
BENDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE GUIDANCE HAS MADE ANOTHER SMALL
SHIFT TO THE RIGHT IN THE LONGER-RANGE...THOUGH EVERY RELIABLE
MODEL STILL KEEPS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WELL AWAY FROM BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE NHC FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH 48
HOURS...AND IS A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER THAT
TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 17.1N 106.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 18.1N 108.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 19.1N 109.2W 115 KT 135 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 20.0N 110.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 20.8N 111.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 22.5N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 24.4N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1200Z 26.0N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[CrazyC83]

135 knts? wow, this is almost a cat 5! Cloud tops are cooling so we will likely have 140 knt winds later today.

Not much time to get there. It will likely start weakening by tonight and the bottom should fall out tomorrow.

[Yellow Evan]

Man, I can't wait for the adv. I am constantly hit the refresh page on my browser.

[Yellow Evan]

Man, I can't wait for the adv. I am constantly hit the refresh page on my browser.

Haha, i was one min too late.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Amazing storm.

This system indeed has beautiful satellite presentation.

[Chacor]

Think 135 kt cat 4 seems about right. Doesn't quite have that cat 5 look you'd expect like we saw with the 2005 or 2007 Atlantic monsters.

[Macrocane]

I also agree with that intensity as it doesn't look as good (almost though) as Celia or Rick.

[plasticup]

Cloud tops are warming. It looks like she missed her Cat5 window.

[x-y-no]

Heh ... Hamweather still has the bug that displays 135 knots as Cat 5.

[RL3AO]

Satellite presentation is starting to degrade. Looks like Dora has peaked.

[RL3AO]

Dora near peak intensity.

[Battlebrick]

EWRC incoming?

[SouthFloridawx]

EWRC incoming?

Kind of looks like that. Also could be taking in some dry air from the east.

[SouthFloridawx]

[RL3AO]

I don't even think its an EWRC. I think its just peaked and will now rapidly weaken.

[cycloneye]

I don't even think its an EWRC. I think its just peaked and will now rapidly weaken.

I agree. It has peaked and that is a dry slot.

[Yellow Evan]

It looks like it is very close to Cat 5.

[RL3AO]

It looks like it is very close to Cat 5.

Recon is 24 hours too late.

Not even sure they need to go anyway now.

[Yellow Evan]

It looks like it is very close to Cat 5.

Recon is 24 hours too late.

Not even sure they need to go anyway now.

I think it will be cancelled. Like Rick 09, they were late for Recon.

[CrazyC83]

Agreed, probably peaked around 1500Z and starting to come down now.