ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

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ROCK
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#581 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 24, 2011 10:03 pm

my thoughts on the NAM are its hit or miss...and it misses a lot but sometimes it gets one right. I look at the NAM really for whats going on in the upper air environment not for TC genisis....

I do however like to look at it for fun..... :D
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Re:

#582 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 24, 2011 10:05 pm

NDG wrote:If tonight's NAM verifies it will be the first this year it develops a storm with no global model support, I lost count of how many ghost storms it has try to develop this year, lol.


show me the global who sniffed out Bret..... :lol: wasnt the jacked up GFS thats for sure....
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#583 Postby fci » Sun Jul 24, 2011 10:06 pm

Is this still an Invest?
I don't see it on the S2K map which usually means one of two things:
- a named system or TD
- poof.
I know it has not strengthened so I guess it has been "poofed"?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#584 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 24, 2011 10:10 pm

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... m=&time=-1

700MB vorticity.....850 still there but not as defined...mostly likely land interaction....
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Re:

#585 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 24, 2011 10:12 pm

fci wrote:Is this still an Invest?
I don't see it on the S2K map which usually means one of two things:
- a named system or TD
- poof.
I know it has not strengthened so I guess it has been "poofed"?


As of the time I am making this post,even though, 90L is not at the graphic at top of forum, is still active.Is not at the graphic because since 18z of Saturday,no runs of the tropical models have been out and that graphic is automated with what ATCF does.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#586 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 24, 2011 10:17 pm

Cuban radar.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#587 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 24, 2011 10:21 pm

90L needs to slow down and I think that is what is expect once it passes under Cuba...at this clip it will almost be entering the GOM tomorrow at noon....
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#588 Postby HurricaneBrain » Sun Jul 24, 2011 10:30 pm

Should definitely avoid land tonight.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#589 Postby TexasF6 » Sun Jul 24, 2011 10:32 pm

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Re: Re:

#590 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sun Jul 24, 2011 10:36 pm

ROCK wrote:
NDG wrote:If tonight's NAM verifies it will be the first this year it develops a storm with no global model support, I lost count of how many ghost storms it has try to develop this year, lol.


show me the global who sniffed out Bret..... :lol: wasnt the jacked up GFS thats for sure....


or Cindy for that matter.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#591 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 24, 2011 10:39 pm

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#592 Postby HurricaneBrain » Sun Jul 24, 2011 10:47 pm

NAM brings it pretty far north...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#593 Postby TexasF6 » Sun Jul 24, 2011 10:48 pm

Love it cycloneye!!! :uarrow: I think I sawr a mid-level circulation in the Dvorak animation....could be just my drought stricken eyes.....IMO... :double:
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Re:

#594 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Jul 24, 2011 10:57 pm

HurricaneBrain wrote:Should definitely avoid land tonight.



Yeah I think 90L is just south of Cuba moving WNW. On that track, it should stay mostly over open waters tonight and tomorrow.

Btw it's convection hasn't diminished much compared to the last few nights at this time.
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Re:

#595 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 24, 2011 11:11 pm

HurricaneBrain wrote:NAM brings it pretty far north...


yes it does....more so than any prior runs...

0z GFS doesnt see sqat,,,, :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#596 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Jul 24, 2011 11:14 pm

Does the 0z NAM show a tropical storm heading on a general path towards the LA/TX coastline?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#597 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 24, 2011 11:16 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:Does the 0z NAM show a tropical storm heading on a general path towards the LA/TX coastline?



the 0z GFS shows 90L into the FL panhandle.
.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#598 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Jul 24, 2011 11:20 pm

It does? I don't see that on the 0z GFS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#599 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 24, 2011 11:23 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:It does? I don't see that on the 0z GFS.


follow the moisture....its not a closed low........
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#600 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Jul 24, 2011 11:25 pm

I don't trust the GFS at all right now. It didn't initialize its vorticity or current precip right at all. The NAM initialized 90L much better tonight imo.
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