ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#701 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Jul 25, 2011 2:42 pm

I think one thing can be said for certain...The forward progress of this system, which was clipping to the west at a good pace, has seemed to surely hit the brakes and wants to hang out around Jamaica for a while.

SFT
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#702 Postby red herring » Mon Jul 25, 2011 2:42 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Definitely seeing spin just SW of Jamaica

Image



:uarrow: just needs the convection
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#703 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 25, 2011 2:44 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:I think one thing can be said for certain...The forward progress of this system, which was clipping to the west at a good pace, has seemed to surely hit the brakes and wants to hang out around Jamaica for a while.

SFT


Slowed way down now that the surface winds have slowed in the Western Caribbean.

Looking halfway decent now :D

Image
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#704 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 25, 2011 2:46 pm

Image

nothing at the surface but a wave
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#705 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Jul 25, 2011 2:47 pm

I don't understand the "unfavorable conditions." Shear is only 5-10 knots.... that's very favorable.. Combine that with extremely warm SST's.... You get cyclogenesis if something sits there long enough.

Wind shear:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#706 Postby sunnyday » Mon Jul 25, 2011 2:50 pm

I hear the fat lady singing so loudly that I know this pitiful excuse for a weather system is done! 8-)
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#707 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 25, 2011 2:54 pm

red herring wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Definitely seeing spin just SW of Jamaica

Image



:uarrow: just needs the convection

SW of Jamaica is a weak ULL.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#708 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Jul 25, 2011 2:59 pm

More convection is beginning to fire in the area.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#709 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:02 pm

that is not a ULL....this thing has multiple vortexs rotating around the main MLC...

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


go to water vapor loop.....and animate
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#710 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:05 pm

Looks good to me....

Image
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#711 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:10 pm

Still only spotty convection. no large complexes. till that changes we will not see development
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#712 Postby lester » Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:11 pm

It's not gonna develop, next

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Edited by Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#713 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:12 pm

Looking more impressive to me by the hour. Rotation is increasing, as is convection. Shear will be on the decrease in the next 24 hours. I expect development potential to increase significantly in 24-36 hours once in the southern Gulf.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#714 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:14 pm

You know better than that Lester. When making absolute statements on a forecast, use the S2K disclaimer.


Now that it has slowed in the Western Caribbean we are getting a much sharper wave and the outflow is improving.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#715 Postby GCANE » Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:16 pm

Buoy to the west taking a little dip in pressure.


Image
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#716 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:21 pm

GCANE wrote:Buoy to the west taking a little dip in pressure.


Image



well both nearby buoys have a higher afternoon pressure drop than the last couple days.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=CDT

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=EST
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#717 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:24 pm

Mid-level turning continues to improve in the area of greatest vorticity. Starting to slowly come together it seems....
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#718 Postby sunnyday » Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:25 pm

Maybe, that wasn't the fat lady I heard, after all. lol 8-)
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#719 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:27 pm

If trends continues,reactivation of 90L is increasing.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

#720 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:If trends continues,reactivation of 90L is increasing.


How long do you think they will wait for persistence? I'm guessing if it is like this for another 12 hours, 90L will be back. Maybe sooner at the current rate?
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