ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

#781 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:27 pm

While I'm sure many of us have our personal opinions about The Weather Channel and the National Hurricane Center (among others), I feel a need to provide a friendly reminder to all that we do have a rule against attacks/insults on professional meteorological organizations.

We haven't crossed that line this afternoon but I just wanted to remind folks of this rule.

Now, carry on about 90L! :wink:

#782 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:28 pm

The NHC is an official source Lester, you are not. If you wish to discuss this further feel free to PM me. Until then, use the S2K disclaimer.

KWT · #783 Postby **KWT** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:34 pm

lester wrote:
It's in the NHC's opinion too..for now

Sent from my ADR6300 using Tapatalk

I think thats the key there, "for now"...

gatorcane, true but it could also be the case that the convection that did form is helping to kick the system off, and I've seen numerous occasions where that has been enough to at least start the formtation of a system...

I do think as you probably do as well that still more chance it doesn't form, but at least the odds are a little better for formation as of now.

#784 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:36 pm

18z GFS is much stronger with the 850mb Vort taking it into Texas/Louisiana border

#785 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:40 pm

A drought buster for SE Texas? 18z GFS.

#786 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:41 pm

IMO, we are going to see a surface circulation get going near or just NW of the Cayman Islands once the mid level circulation gets over that area, that's where we are seeing the largest surface pressure falls.

#787 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:41 pm

That's a big 'ol drop in pressure

KWT · #788 Postby **KWT** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:43 pm

Interesting that the 18z develops a different area to what we are looking at, looks like it tries to develop the orginal area we were watching a few days ago.

#789 Postby **lester** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:43 pm

Ivanhater wrote:18z GFS is much stronger with the 850mb Vort taking it into Texas/Louisiana border

The 18z isn't a reliable model cycle, imo

- לסטר

KWT · #790 Postby **KWT** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:45 pm

To be fair thats both the GFS and the ECM that now at least try to restrengthen the vort again.

#791 Postby **lrak** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:52 pm

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

sure looks like its taking shape

#792 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 5:57 pm

KWT wrote:Interesting that the 18z develops a different area to what we are looking at, looks like it tries to develop the orginal area we were watching a few days ago.

What area is that?
I see that it starts with a vorticity on the northern coast of Cuba but then it dies before developing the area that we are looking at between the Cayman Islands and Cuba.

#793 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:02 pm

850mb Vorticity has increased a lot today

Florida1118 · #794 Postby **Florida1118** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:05 pm

If he doesnt wane convection tonight, I'll be impressed. But Im assuming it will...

KWT · #795 Postby **KWT** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:10 pm

NDG wrote:What area is that?
I see that it starts with a vorticity on the northern coast of Cuba but then it dies before developing the area that we are looking at between the Cayman Islands and Cuba.

I didn't actually notice quite how far west the Vort is, so fair enough probably is that area the GFS is focusing in on!

#796 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:12 pm

I think this system is getting better organized due in some part to that it is sitting over the warmest SSTs in the Atlantic right now.

HurricaneWarning92 · #797 Postby **HurricaneWarning92** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:16 pm

hmm there is still a possibility that we could see the 4th storm of the season before the end of the month. 8-)

#798 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:17 pm

There isn't much precip associated with this system according to the 18z GFS. Oh well. It is better than it showed on its 12z run (nothing).

#799 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:21 pm

OK, with a better satellite presentation, good H85 vortcity, low windshear, falling surface pressures along with a little better global model support with the 12z euro showing a stronger vorticity and lower surface pressures and the 18z gfs showing a strong vorticity with an almost closed surface circulation, will this be good enough for the NHC to re-active 90L at 0z?
I am 50/50.

CYCLONE MIKE · #800 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:23 pm

Just catching up on the latest. I called this dead earlier and said it was time to look elsewhere. It is looking somewhat better and I do see the mid level rotation. However as others have mentioned think most of the storms popping over cuba are the typical late afternoon summer storms that fire off everyday. If those were not there looking pretty on satellite there would not to be much to look at. Lets give this another 4-5 hours and see what the storms due. My personal thinking is they will die off tonight and a naked swirl with just scattered storms around it will be left in the morning. If it moves slow enough in the gulf could strengthen into a quick depression just before landfall. Has a long ways to go. Of course this is all just a matter of opinion as there is nothing else to look at.

ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

Re: Re: Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Models

Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

Re: Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

Re:

Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

Re: Re:

Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Models

Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

Who is online