ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[nicole]

When are the models going to start picking up on this system?

What are they seeing that is not causing them to develop it?

Maybe it is a 2011 thing, but so far the models are having a tough time even detecting development on these smaller systems.

IMO...this has been an ALL AROUND unpredictable year for weather...snow,tornados,flooding,this god-awful HEAT and drought! I completely expect this to be an exciting and unpredictable summer for hurricanes also! Things are so nuts with the weather that its probably confusing the models...or something like that..

[TheDreamTraveler]

Given the conditions, the storm should reach minimal hurricane strength by the time it reaches the Gulf coast. I don't expect it to get any stronger than that unless it goes through a period of rapid intensification, which isn't out of the question given how horrible computer models are with predicting intensity. Though my observations are just opinion.

I'm really hoping that the storm makes a pass at Texas, not to wishcast obviously, but because of the drought they've been enduring. I've been looking at it a lot, and all they need is a tropical storm or hurricane to help repair some of the moisture they've lost. So I'll be hoping for all of you.

[wxman57]

12z NOGAPs - Tx/La Border area.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=prp&dtg=2011072612&set=Tropical

We know where it's NOT going, then.

[RachelAnna]

Models are giving me some hope that *maybe* we can at least get a bit of rain here--don't need a TS or a hurricane, but good soaking rains would be awesome. Got a nice downpour yesterday, but I think it just made my lawn thirstier! C'mon 90L, at least be a rainmaker for most of Texas!

Our cattle and wildlife are dying out here, our lawns are long since dead.

http://www.woai.com/content/news/beamer/story/Beamer-Looks-at-Drought-Around-Del-Rio/yEEOk_g5bECUHVIFzpYWbA.cspx

That's terrible--it really is, I feel for the residents as well as the animals! My lawn would be dead if I didn't water like crazy under the threats of my homeowners association! It would be nice if we could get some widespread rain from this storm! Doesn't look like it will be all that big, but even if it isn't a huge event it would be nice for somewhere that is in need of the water gets it!

[StormClouds63]

Thankfully in 1999, Bret made landfall in Kenedy county, where the cows outnumber people. Bret was a small system so the impacts to populated areas was not so bad. Maybe future Don will follow the same scenario.

[KWT]

When are the models going to start picking up on this system?

What are they seeing that is not causing them to develop it?

Well it may well be a small system and its in a fairly complex upper pattern with several ULLs/TUTTs not being that far away, I'm just guessing they think one of those features will end up preventing it from developing.

[Stormcenter]

Well maybe I'm not in the majority here but I don't wish any hurricane on anyone drought or not. JMHO

[Air Force Met]

For you newbies, Air Force Met is one of our fine meteorologists and a longtime Storm2K member. AFM doesn't post a lot ... but when he does, you best listen up and take note!

AFM -- thanks mucho for your thoughts and we look forward to any further comments!

I actually had lunch with AFM today. I respect his opinion very much. Great meteorologist. We're on the same page regarding potential development and track. No reason for a special NHC outlook, unless it's to admit that development chances are better than not. No well-defined LLC yet. In fact, the buoy SW of the "center" now has and ESE wind at 10 kts. You wouldn't expect that if an LLC had become well-established.

Right back at cha!

And agree with you...no LLC yet. It will have to wait for the mid level vorticity to work its way down. That will take several hours of "hot towers." Oooh...that rhymed.

[HURAKAN]

latest visible close-up

[tolakram]

Live 30 frame loop. I love rapid scan.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30


Speed it up for the best effect.

[BeachBumJen]

Any thoughts that this could be a Houston/Galveston area storm at this point?

There is no way to be sure at this point, storms are an act of nature, they tend to go where ever they want to go!
We see this year after year, a storm points one way and last min heads another.

Because your in the Houston area I will use Ike as an example...here is the cone path NHC gave us just 4 days before Ike hit.


Bottom line if you live in the Gulf always be ready!

I myself am not worried about a dirrect Houston/Galveston hit.I am more worried about a much over due Matagorda hit...which would put Houston on the Dirty side.

But IMO if he pulls through the night we could see what I would call a small Storm...it's too early in the season to see something big that's just MO

[ROCK]

When are the models going to start picking up on this system?

What are they seeing that is not causing them to develop it?

Well it may well be a small system and its in a fairly complex upper pattern with several ULLs/TUTTs not being that far away, I'm just guessing they think one of those features will end up preventing it from developing.

really flying blind right now with no models....NAM seems good so far....

[tropicwatch]

Here is some recent buoy data. The distance is from the point of
20.5N 83.4W

ID TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
42056 1950 19.80 -84.86 92 243 100 7.8 9.7 2.3 8 5.1 108 29.83 -0.05
42057 1950 17.00 -81.50 236 152 110 11.7 13.6 4.3 8 5.8 94 29.81 -

Tropicwatch

[KWT]

Nice looking system, still waiting for one solid clump of convection to actually hold and not collapse, I think once that happens thats when you'll get an established LLC. The last burst started off the process, this burst is at least maintaining it, but we aren't quite the full way there yet.

Its got time to become a hurricane, but it'll have to somewhat threat the eye of the needle still when it comes to the shear zone...if it does then it'll have good outflow support.

[Tireman4]

12z NOGAPs - Tx/La Border area.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=prp&dtg=2011072612&set=Tropical

We know where it's NOT going, then.

Model smackdown...woo hoo...I love it...

[tolakram]

Code: Select all

3:50 pm    NE ( 49 deg )    0.4 kts
3:40 pm    W ( 278 deg )    2.5 kts
3:30 pm    WNW ( 295 deg )    2.7 kts
3:20 pm    NW ( 307 deg )    3.9 kts
3:10 pm    ESE ( 104 deg )    1.6 kts
3:00 pm    E ( 80 deg )    6.0 kts

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[tropicwatch]

I don't know how accurate it is but Pinar del Rio, CU is reporting a pressure of 29.70.

[NDG]

For you newbies, Air Force Met is one of our fine meteorologists and a longtime Storm2K member. AFM doesn't post a lot ... but when he does, you best listen up and take note!

AFM -- thanks mucho for your thoughts and we look forward to any further comments!

I actually had lunch with AFM today. I respect his opinion very much. Great meteorologist. We're on the same page regarding potential development and track. No reason for a special NHC outlook, unless it's to admit that development chances are better than not. No well-defined LLC yet. In fact, the buoy SW of the "center" now has and ESE wind at 10 kts. You wouldn't expect that if an LLC had become well-established.

Buoy 42056 now reporting calm winds, in the last hour it has gone light and variable, even one point in the last hour of a very light W and or NW winds for a period of 20 minutes. That's good enough for me of an indication that to the NE of it there might be a closed circulation trying to get going knowing that the SW quadrant of a developing LLC is the weakest quadrant when it comes to winds, most times. IMO.

Conditions at 42056 as of
(3:50 pm CDT)
2050 GMT on 07/26/2011:
Wind Speed (WSPD): 0.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 1.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.0 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 80 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.82 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 84.4 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 87.6 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.4 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 92.8 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Continuous Winds TIME
(CDT) WDIR WSPD
3:50 pm NE ( 49 deg ) 0.4 kts
3:40 pm W ( 278 deg ) 2.5 kts
3:30 pm WNW ( 295 deg ) 2.7 kts
3:20 pm NW ( 307 deg ) 3.9 kts
3:10 pm ESE ( 104 deg ) 1.6 kts
3:00 pm E ( 80 deg ) 6.0 kts
Supplemental Measurements Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (CDT) WSPD WDIR
3:50 pm 7.8 kts E ( 90 deg true )

[Stormcenter]

Sorry but I don't trust any of the models this far out anyway. I've never have and never will. JMHO

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I don't know how accurate it is but Pinar del Rio, CU is reporting a pressure of 29.70.

Do you have something that shows that?