ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Air Force Met]

I think the center relocated south some, deeper into the convection.

Yep...Down near 24.2 now. It's right under that convection. To me...it looks like the outflow is now becoming well established. I think we will start to see a run towards intensification now.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282204
NOAA2 0304A DON HDOB 13 20110728
215430 2411N 09128W 7493 02558 //// +136 //// 300016 021 /// /// 25
215500 2410N 09130W 7514 02533 //// +136 //// 296016 023 055 065 25
215530 2409N 09132W 7496 02549 //// +134 //// 314022 033 049 071 25
215600 2408N 09134W 7503 02549 //// +137 //// 325033 035 057 044 21
215630 2407N 09136W 7550 02500 //// +141 //// 340026 029 052 024 21
215700 2406N 09138W 7543 02510 0060 +142 +143 343020 023 051 021 00
215730 2405N 09140W 7521 02535 0054 +147 +143 305017 019 050 024 00
215800 2404N 09141W 7527 02529 0055 +148 +137 299015 016 047 025 00
215830 2403N 09143W 7518 02542 0068 +139 +136 306016 018 041 014 00
215900 2402N 09145W 7518 02544 0073 +134 +135 319020 022 042 018 00
215930 2401N 09147W 7491 02575 //// +139 //// 316023 025 047 023 21
220000 2400N 09149W 7517 02543 0061 +144 +140 321023 026 042 018 00
220030 2359N 09151W 7530 02532 0063 +147 +134 335020 021 037 007 00
220100 2358N 09152W 7531 02533 0066 +145 +138 341022 022 036 006 00
220130 2357N 09154W 7529 02535 0068 +144 +139 346022 024 036 007 00
220200 2356N 09156W 7528 02536 0076 +136 +141 344022 023 034 008 00
220230 2355N 09158W 7521 02543 //// +133 //// 334022 023 033 009 21
220300 2354N 09200W 7510 02556 //// +130 //// 333023 025 030 005 21
220330 2353N 09202W 7518 02549 0081 +133 +127 336021 022 025 003 00
220400 2352N 09204W 7513 02553 0079 +134 +134 335021 023 025 004 00

[JtSmarts]

Is there any chance we could see Don expand from a tiny sized storm into an average size storm?

[South Texas Storms]

I think the center relocated south some, deeper into the convection.

Yep...Down near 24.2 now. It's right under that convection. To me...it looks like the outflow is now becoming well established. I think we will start to see a run towards intensification now.

AFM what do you think I can expect to see from Don in San Antonio? Over 2 inches of rain and maybe some wind? I hope it doesn't go too far south so that we don't get much. Where do you think it will make landfall? I'm getting kind of worried we may miss out here...

[JGrin87]

What do all the numbers on the recon mean? Can anyone classify them?

[JGrin87]

Can anyone classify what these numbers mean?

[KWT]

I think the center relocated south some, deeper into the convection.

Yep...Down near 24.2 now. It's right under that convection. To me...it looks like the outflow is now becoming well established. I think we will start to see a run towards intensification now.

Agreed, its tucked in quite nicely and the deep convection is throwing out some VERY impressive rainfall rates according to the recon estimates.

We should all remember these systems can strengthen and weaken at quick rates.

[tolakram]

jGrin, you can see the thread titles, this is the recon discussion thread.

Here is the key for the decoding, hidden in the tropical analysis forum

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=85603

[TheEuropean]

What do all the numbers on the recon mean? Can anyone classify them?

Here is all about these numbers:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouthdobs_2007.shtml

[SouthDadeFish]

Well it looks like a hot tower is going off in that location, justifying those rain rates.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Center is also very close to the hot tower as well...looks like the circulation has relocated right into the center of the convection, shear does seem to have eased off for now, just as it goes over the higher heat content.

No denying its on another strengthening phase.

[SouthDadeFish]

Center is also very close to the hot tower as well...looks like the circulation has relocated right into the center of the convection, shear does seem to have eased off for now, just as it goes over the higher heat content.

No denying its on another strengthening phase.

And this is why I love tropical meteorology. Oh how quickly things change. Hopefully this strengthening phase makes the storm larger and not too strong, to bring more rains to Texas.

[HURAKAN]

Can anyone classify what these numbers mean?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouthdobs_2007.shtml

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282214
NOAA2 0304A DON HDOB 14 20110728
220430 2351N 09206W 7509 02559 0080 +134 +127 337019 020 022 000 00
220500 2350N 09208W 7507 02561 0078 +135 +125 333018 018 021 000 00
220530 2349N 09210W 7508 02560 0082 +132 +126 337018 018 022 000 00
220600 2348N 09212W 7503 02565 0081 +133 +123 338018 019 024 001 00
220630 2347N 09214W 7508 02560 0081 +134 +120 340018 018 023 001 00
220700 2346N 09216W 7505 02564 0083 +131 +119 341017 018 020 000 00
220730 2345N 09217W 7505 02560 0082 +129 +120 343018 020 020 000 00
220800 2344N 09219W 7505 02559 0080 +129 +123 338017 018 019 000 00
220830 2343N 09221W 7506 02560 0082 +129 +123 337019 020 021 000 00
220900 2342N 09223W 7507 02560 0083 +129 +121 338020 021 021 000 00
220930 2341N 09225W 7508 02559 0084 +129 +116 334022 022 021 000 00
221000 2340N 09227W 7507 02561 0083 +133 +102 331019 021 021 000 00
221030 2339N 09229W 7515 02552 0080 +137 +099 340018 020 022 001 00
221100 2338N 09231W 7507 02561 0081 +133 +125 340020 022 026 004 00
221130 2338N 09233W 7514 02556 0088 +130 +117 335018 018 021 002 00
221200 2337N 09235W 7510 02562 0092 +130 +103 336017 019 019 000 00
221230 2336N 09237W 7510 02560 0090 +131 +090 338016 016 023 000 00
221300 2335N 09239W 7513 02558 0093 +129 +099 341016 017 024 000 00
221330 2334N 09241W 7510 02560 0090 +134 +083 340015 015 021 001 00
221400 2333N 09243W 7511 02561 0094 +130 +094 342016 017 022 001 00

[Air Force Met]

AFM what do you think I can expect to see from Don in San Antonio? Over 2 inches of rain and maybe some wind? I hope it doesn't go too far south so that we don't get much. Where do you think it will make landfall? I'm getting kind of worried we may miss out here...

I doubt you will see much in the way of wind...but 2" sounds about right...maybe more.Landfall is tricky now that it decided to reform a little to the south. Since I've been sticking with landfall around Port Lavaca...I guess I will now pull it down Corpus/Brownsville...but will have to wait and see what it decides to do now that it has some convection wrapped all the way around.

[South Texas Storms]

AFM what do you think I can expect to see from Don in San Antonio? Over 2 inches of rain and maybe some wind? I hope it doesn't go too far south so that we don't get much. Where do you think it will make landfall? I'm getting kind of worried we may miss out here...

I doubt you will see much in the way of wind...but 2" sounds about right...maybe more.Landfall is tricky now that it decided to reform a little to the south. Since I've been sticking with landfall around Port Lavaca...I guess I will now pull it down Corpus/Brownsville...but will have to wait and see what it decides to do now that it has some convection wrapped all the way around.

Alright thanks. I just hope it doesn't track too far to our south now so that we don't miss out here in central TX.

[HURAKAN]

[lebron23]

AFM, Do you agree with 1-2 inches of rain here in Sugar Land, Fort bend county?

[Air Force Met]

Center is also very close to the hot tower as well...looks like the circulation has relocated right into the center of the convection, shear does seem to have eased off for now, just as it goes over the higher heat content.

No denying its on another strengthening phase.

This is about where and when I expected this to start happening. This afternoon...as it approached 25N near that eddy of higher TCHP.

If you look at a water vapor loop of the Gulf...he is actually starting to take the shape of a tropical cyclone for the first time in his life...if you can ignore all the garbage north of him.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html