ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Macrocane]

Ok, NOAA's plane is leaving so I think I can stop posting the observations.

[TwisterFanatic]

It looks to me like the NW motion has resumed. Does anyone else see this?

Maybe, I can't really tell, might be an illusion.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Model Tracks

[Hurricaneman]

Im thinking this is at 996 pressure as of now

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[Swimdude]

It looks to me like the NW motion has resumed. Does anyone else see this?

Maybe, I can't really tell, might be an illusion.

If that's actually an *eye* forming where it appears to be forming, then the storm is more than a little bit South of the current forecast track, for what it's worth.

[SouthDadeFish]

The 999mb dropsonde measured 29 knots of wind at the surface. Pressure is lower than that... This suggests though that the mid and lower level circulations are still slightly tilted.

That supports a 997mb pressure.

Yeah I agree. I'm really interested to see what recon finds in the next pass. Don might hit a wall for a little until he builds an eyewall. Then strengthening will resume again. Just my opinion.

[Air Force Met]

pressure dropping to 996.1 mb

RI starting? I wouldn't be surprised if we have a hurricane sometimes tomorrow.

That's what I've been forecasting...once it got to Thursday evening and 25N....

Started to feel like I was in the woods all alone...naked. LOL

LOL AFM, I never doubted you for a minute. You are the BEST when it comes to the tropics, and I don't know how we would survive around here at Storm2k without you. Thanks so much for all you do.

Well....I wouldn't go that far guys...I have my fair share of busts that's for certain. But thanks for not remembering them.

[Dave]

985
URNT15 KNHC 290042
AF307 0404A DON HDOB 18 20110729
003200 2333N 09247W 8432 01563 0087 +173 +151 324020 020 017 003 00
003230 2332N 09248W 8429 01564 0089 +170 +159 322018 019 019 005 00
003300 2330N 09249W 8435 01559 0090 +170 +154 319017 017 020 005 00
003330 2329N 09251W 8429 01567 0090 +173 +144 323017 017 016 004 00
003400 2328N 09252W 8429 01567 0090 +175 +141 328017 018 013 004 00
003430 2327N 09253W 8430 01564 0091 +170 +157 330015 016 011 005 00
003500 2326N 09254W 8428 01568 0090 +172 +154 334016 016 014 005 00
003530 2325N 09256W 8429 01567 0089 +172 +158 332015 017 017 006 00
003600 2323N 09257W 8442 01556 0098 +165 //// 332014 020 011 010 01
003630 2322N 09258W 8427 01567 0088 +174 +154 339016 017 011 003 00
003700 2321N 09300W 8433 01565 0090 +175 +149 339015 016 012 002 00
003730 2320N 09301W 8430 01567 0091 +175 +145 341014 014 014 001 00
003800 2319N 09302W 8428 01569 0092 +171 +149 344014 014 015 001 00
003830 2317N 09304W 8432 01565 0091 +174 +150 338015 015 010 003 00
003900 2316N 09305W 8429 01568 0090 +175 +144 339015 015 011 003 00
003930 2315N 09306W 8429 01568 0092 +174 +150 342014 014 013 001 00
004000 2314N 09308W 8432 01565 0090 +175 +146 346013 014 011 001 00
004030 2313N 09309W 8426 01571 0090 +175 +140 347013 013 008 001 00
004100 2311N 09310W 8428 01570 0091 +175 +142 348013 013 006 002 00
004130 2310N 09312W 8430 01567 0092 +175 +144 355012 013 007 000 00
$$
;

[SouthDadeFish]

NOAA VDM says 996 mb. More like it

[Meteorcane]

Is there a possibility Corpus could see some rain from this system? Or is this another Arlene?

[lebron23]

Is there a possibility Corpus could see some rain from this system? Or is this another Arlene?

Corpus will get the most of the rain...

[SouthDadeFish]

Is there a possibility Corpus could see some rain from this system? Or is this another Arlene?

Corpus could see more than a little rain. For now you should be ready for tropical storm conditions. Depending on whether the NHC issues a hurricane watch/warning you may receive even more.

[Dave]

Ok, NOAA's plane is leaving so I think I can stop posting the observations.

Yep...thanks! I didn't see RL's post until I'd hit that last drop. Changing back to black lettering now.

[HURAKAN]

[Meteorcane]

Lol, the radio stations down here are saying Friday night's forecast is Scattered Thunderstorms, I don't think a lot of people know what is going on.

[vbhoutex]

Well if you go look at the WV loop you can see high cloud movement NNW at the TX/LA border being created in part I think by the ULL in Mexico/part of TX.Then we may have a strengthing storm more poleward movement possible coming from that you got to start wondering if Mid/N TX come back into play?just wondering.

here: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

The ULL to the West and the ULL to the East are definitely both working on Don right now, at least as far as steering is concerned. I'm not sure what that steering is going to do, but my instinct tells me that you may be correct in your assessment. That coupled with the obvious strengthening going on troubles me a little for our area as the media in this area is pretty much telling us to write Don off except for a little rain. I will definitely be following him late into the night after seeing that loop and the obvious strengthening going on. When is recon expected in next?(I haven't been following it today)

[SouthDadeFish]

This is a weird storm. A 996 mb "blob." A big ball of convection without any strong bands. It's an annular tropical storm just kidding of course.

[JGrin87]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

you can see a clear NW movement on this longterm stream of Don. From this look, it appears that it is going straight at Houston

[theweatherwatch]

Recon is currently in Don now...

[SouthDadeFish]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html

you can see a clear NW movement on this longterm stream of Don. From this look, it appears that it is going straight at Houston

The ridge will be building west though, allowing a more WNW/NW course.