ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[theweatherwatch]

Updated my Blog again with some initial thoughts on what could become of future Emily's Future track based on a new concept I have been introduced to called TeleConnections. You can read the blog here - http://theweatherlookout.blogspot.com/

The teleconnection idea has been used by Joe Bastardi for several years. He has quoted the inventor of that idea but I can't remember who it was. I know when I subscribed to his Accuweather pro site a few years ago he used that method for some of his long range forecast.

I had never heard of it until Mark over at HurricaneTrack.com started talking about it in response to 91L. It's something I would like to research more about.

[Fego]

Structure is there, but convection lacking this evening.

Its D-Min, the convection loss is normal

Where can I get more info about D-Minus and D-Max? What it is and when it ocurrs.

[SouthDadeFish]

Very little convergence going on according to latest CIMSS analysis. No convergence + dry air + diurnal minimum = minimal convection.

[SouthDadeFish]

Structure is there, but convection lacking this evening.

Its D-Min, the convection loss is normal

Where can I get more info about D-Minus and D-Max? What it is and when it ocurrs.

Dirunal minimum occurs at sunset when the atmosphere is at its hottest. As a result warm air evaporated from the ocean has a harder time rising, which limits thunderstorm activity. The opposite occurs at diurnal(nocturnal) maximum, which occurs right before sunrise where the atmosphere is at its coolest. This makes it easier for warm air from the ocean to rise and produce thunderstorms. 91L just went through diurnal minimum, which is at least part of the reason convection is limited at this time.

[Florida1118]

Structure is there, but convection lacking this evening.

Its D-Min, the convection loss is normal

Where can I get more info about D-Minus and D-Max? What it is and when it ocurrs.

You actually asked this on August 10th last year lol

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=42&t=108938

[underthwx]

.I was allowed to join this forum and Ive totally enjoyed it...Im an ametuer(also at spelling ametuer)....I have a ton of respect for what you post here....especially during hurricane days......Im almost afraid to post what I think or feel is going to evolve with a tropical system......but then again thats why I want in.....I love it....kinda feel I know what Im doing here....hope to learn alot from yall.....

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm impressed that you knew that lol!

[Florida1118]

:uarrow: I'm impressed that you knew that lol!

Its the 3rd or 4th link on google when you look up D-min and D-max... Only person I'd expect to remember that is Hurakan...

[SouthDadeFish]

Go ahead and speculate on model runs over 120+ hours out. You'll quickly learn how inaccurate they become. Keep in mind this isn't even a classified system yet.

[wxman57]

have they ever gone 100% chance before classifying a system...I dont recall...

Yes, but THEY'RE the ones making the call to upgrade. They're basically saying they plan to upgrade on the next advisory time when they go 100%. I would like to see a separate agency determine the classification, someone who's not making the development forecast. That would be interesting, but it'll never happen.

90% doesn't mean it'll be classified by 10pm CDT this evening, just by 10PM Monday evening. Wait for it to slow down tomorrow as it reaches the western periphery of the ridge. That's when convergence will increase and it'll take off.

[tailgater]

I think noone is wrong.....I was allowed to join this forum and Ive totally enjoyed it...Im an ametuer(also at spelling ametuer)....I have a ton of respect for what you post here....especially during hurricane days......Im almost afraid to post what I think or feel is going to evolve with a tropical system......but then again thats why I want in.....I love it....kinda feel I know what Im doing here....hope to learn alot from yall.....

Welcome and jump on in, the water is fine. Don't worry we've all eaten a little crow.

[Portastorm]

I agree with Gatorcane. The models actually were furthest west around this time on yesterday. Since then we have learned two things:


1. A track out to sea is inevitable (Even if this track goes through the Caribbean it will still feel the weakness. Unfortunately that means the islands in that region are the target this time around.

2. This is not a U.S. threat. It is an Island threat.


For anyone in that area I would be deeply concerned. Future Emily has for real potential, IMHO.

I'm not a mod or anything, but it is WAAY to early for posts of certainty like this.

Well, I am a mod and yes ... I've seen a number of posts in this thread that need forecast disclaimers. To suggest that "we" know that 91L won't be a U.S. threat and a track to sea is inevitable is nothing more than one member's speculation. And really ... a forecast.

C'mon folks, for many of you this ain't your first rodeo during tropical season. You should know better by now.

I'm not singling out Weatherfreak000 but using the post as a point of reference.

[abajan]

have they ever gone 100% chance before classifying a system...I dont recall...

Yes, but THEY'RE the ones making the call to upgrade. They're basically saying they plan to upgrade on the next advisory time when they go 100%. I would like to see a separate agency determine the classification, someone who's not making the development forecast. That would be interesting, but it'll never happen.

90% doesn't mean it'll be classified by 10pm CDT this evening, just by 10PM Monday evening. Wait for it to slow down tomorrow as it reaches the western periphery of the ridge. That's when convergence will increase and it'll take off.

Just to be precise, they don't actually state 100% - but near 100%

[vbhoutex]

I agree with Gatorcane. The models actually were furthest west around this time on yesterday. Since then we have learned two things:


1. A track out to sea is inevitable (Even if this track goes through the Caribbean it will still feel the weakness. Unfortunately that means the islands in that region are the target this time around.

2. This is not a U.S. threat. It is an Island threat.


For anyone in that area I would be deeply concerned. Future Emily has for real potential, IMHO.

I'm not a mod or anything, but it is WAAY to early for posts of certainty like this.

Well, I am a mod and yes ... I've seen a number of posts in this thread that need forecast disclaimers. To suggest that "we" know that 91L won't be a U.S. threat and a track to sea is inevitable is nothing more than one member's speculation. And really ... a forecast.

C'mon folks, for many of you this ain't your first rodeo during tropical season. You should know better by now.

I'm not singling out Weahtherfreak000 but using the post as a point of reference.

As an admin here I back Portastorm 100%. Anyone that has been on this board for any amount of time knows there are no givens in tropical forecasting. Blanket statements and forecasts do need the S2K disclaimer. Please don't make staff do your job and add the disclaimer for you. If we have to continue that warnings and/or suspensions will follow. This board is getting quite busy and will get busier. Let's all work together to make it easy on everyone.
If you have any comments or concerns about this feel free to contact any of our staff by pm.

[wzrgirl1]

have they ever gone 100% chance before classifying a system...I dont recall...

Yes, but THEY'RE the ones making the call to upgrade. They're basically saying they plan to upgrade on the next advisory time when they go 100%. I would like to see a separate agency determine the classification, someone who's not making the development forecast. That would be interesting, but it'll never happen.

90% doesn't mean it'll be classified by 10pm CDT this evening, just by 10PM Monday evening. Wait for it to slow down tomorrow as it reaches the western periphery of the ridge. That's when convergence will increase and it'll take off.

Just to be precise, they don't actually state 100% - but near 100%

I guess nothing is 100% except death and taxes huh?

[HurricaneWarning92]

http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-david-1979

Hmmmm.....

I feel like the models could shift farther west...

[wzrgirl1]

http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-david-1979

Hmmmm.....

I feel like the models could shift farther west...

Could be a remote possibility based on the latest trends, or it could shift back east. I think realistically we will no more by Tuesday or Wednesday.


edit: That was "know" not "no"

[ozonepete]

Just want to be clear about DMIN and DMAX. I studied this at Penn State. The main reason for stronger thunderstorm intensity at night is that during the day incoming solar radiation heats the tops of the thunderstorms. That makes the difference in temperature between the surface and upper levels smaller - thus weaker thunderstorms. At night, especially late into the night, the lack of incoming solar radiation allows the thunderstorm tops to cool very nicely, and this makes a greater temp difference between the surface and the tops of thunderstorms, encouraging further upward growth in the convection.

[HurricaneWarning92]

we are still like 5 days out until it would "feel" the weakness. its silly that right off the bat, we say this will not affect the U.S.

[cycloneye]

Can you imagine for a moment if 91L doesn't develop at all after all the hype of the models,having a well defined low,warm waters,not a lot of shear and not tons of dry air,how the forum would turn into?