ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Recon

#1361 Postby JTE50 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 9:41 am

cycloneye wrote:
can anyone explain what Flight Two is about?



That flight (Gulfstream Jet) goes to check the upper enviroment.


yes, NOAA 49 G4 jet (Gonzo) left the NOAA hanger at McDill AFB in Tampa yesterday for St. Croix http://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA49

I was on the G4 during a Katrina mission back in 2005. It was when Katrina was in the SE Gulf of Mexico - the day after it crossed FL. We flew 9 hours all around Katrina - careful not to drop any dropsondes too close to Katrina. The mission is to sample around the storm from about 40,000 feet. Here are a couple of photos of the aircraft in case you are interested. http://www.extremestorms.com/noaa_gulfstream_iv_high_altitude.htm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#1362 Postby dwsqos2 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 9:41 am

It doesn't look like a TS to me; T numbers aren't high enough, and there likely isn't a well-defined circulation. Where in association to the eastern blob are the northerly winds?
Last edited by dwsqos2 on Sun Jul 31, 2011 9:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1363 Postby hipshot » Sun Jul 31, 2011 9:41 am

What's the chance this could turn into 2 storms and if so what interaction might we expect?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#1364 Postby canes04 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 9:43 am

typo, i meant 13.5 / 51.5
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#1365 Postby Mouton » Sun Jul 31, 2011 9:43 am

Does that show a circulation around 13.75NL and 57.5WLat?
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Re:

#1366 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 9:44 am

hipshot wrote:What's the chance this could turn into 2 storms and if so what interaction might we expect?


id say the stronger system would just suck up the weaker one making it just one system. its unlikely two systems form and they are so close together, one would get sucked into the other one.
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#1367 Postby Tstormwatcher » Sun Jul 31, 2011 9:45 am

The eastern most blob does look like it has a circulation and some good flareup in the last few frames. Will be surprised if we don't have a depression by the end of the day. The western blob has nothing as of yet.
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Re:

#1368 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Jul 31, 2011 9:45 am

hipshot wrote:What's the chance this could turn into 2 storms and if so what interaction might we expect?


.001
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#1369 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 31, 2011 9:47 am

Eventually,in 3 hours we will know for sure if the system has or not a closed circulation. That ASCAT if it gets the whole system would have been very important for NHC to decide before recon arrives.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#1370 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Jul 31, 2011 9:47 am

dwsqos2 wrote:Yeah, there really isn't a well-defined circulation no shock given the low-level flow. Good low-level convergence isn't possible. I see SW low-level winds to the south of the disturbance, but that really isn't enough. It honestly looks rather messy.

As much convection as there is I am somewhat surprised by this. I do not see a well defined circulation at the surface either. To me there appears to be a good MLC on the Eastern area. I understand why the NHC has it at 100%, but I do think this has some work to do to really get going. I have no doubt it will develop, but I'm still not positive HH will find a closed low. Whether or not the trigger is pulled on this our Islander friends need to be prepared for some very squally weather at an absolute minimum.
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Re:

#1371 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 9:48 am

Tstormwatcher wrote:The eastern most blob does look like it has a circulation and some good flareup in the last few frames. Will be surprised if we don't have a depression by the end of the day. The western blob has nothing as of yet.


that what im thinking too. the eastern blob does have a circulation. At least to my eyes. it looks better than the western one
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#1372 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 31, 2011 9:49 am

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Re: Re:

#1373 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 31, 2011 9:49 am

jlauderdal wrote:
hipshot wrote:What's the chance this could turn into 2 storms and if so what interaction might we expect?


.001


You're such a generous person!! lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#1374 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 9:52 am

'CaneFreak wrote:What makes you so sure this is a recurve? I really don't see a large sweeping trough to pick this thing up. All I see is a very weak shortwave trough that *may* allow for the cyclone to sit and stall for a while before before bending back west as the ridge builds back in. Thanks :)


Projected steering currents across the Caribbean and Gulf next week would suggest it either recurves or begins moving south of west and hits Nicaragua. Massive ridge over the south-central U.S. extending across the Gulf to the NW Caribbean and across the SE U.S. for all of next week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#1375 Postby Portastorm » Sun Jul 31, 2011 9:55 am

wxman57 wrote:
'CaneFreak wrote:What makes you so sure this is a recurve? I really don't see a large sweeping trough to pick this thing up. All I see is a very weak shortwave trough that *may* allow for the cyclone to sit and stall for a while before before bending back west as the ridge builds back in. Thanks :)


Projected steering currents across the Caribbean and Gulf next week would suggest it either recurves or begins moving south of west and hits Nicaragua. Massive ridge over the south-central U.S. extending across the Gulf to the NW Caribbean and across the SE U.S. for all of next week.


It is what we in Texas affectionately call the Cockroach Ridge of Death. It has been large and in charge all summer long.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#1376 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Jul 31, 2011 9:55 am

This one is a toughie. After looking at the new floater I think there may be a LLC trying to form around 13.5N, 52W or close to there. I do think the trailing(East) area of convection is the one which will become the TD/TS when the data comes back from the HH. However, I think they are going to have to do some creative flying to tie down the LLC if it does exist.
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#1377 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 31, 2011 9:55 am

I do see a weak LLC at the southern portion of the west area. around 13.8n 57.2W

I can see some east moving clouds there. cant find any indications anywhere else within the system of a circ except there..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Recon

#1378 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 31, 2011 9:58 am

Here is the TCPOD for Monday and Tuesday.

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 311500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 31 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z AUGUST 2011
         TCPOD NUMBER.....11-061

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR LESSER ANTILLES)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
       A. 01/1800Z, 02/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 0405A CYCLONE
       C. 01/1600Z
       D. 14.7N 57.5W
       E. 01/1730Z TO 02/0000Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
       A. 02/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 0505A CYCLONE
       C. 01/1730Z
       D. NA
       E. NA
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70
       A. 02/0600Z,1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE
       C. 02/0430Z
       D. 15.4N 60.0W
       E. 02/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY
       FIXES IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#1379 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Jul 31, 2011 10:00 am

Portastorm wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
'CaneFreak wrote:What makes you so sure this is a recurve? I really don't see a large sweeping trough to pick this thing up. All I see is a very weak shortwave trough that *may* allow for the cyclone to sit and stall for a while before before bending back west as the ridge builds back in. Thanks :)


Projected steering currents across the Caribbean and Gulf next week would suggest it either recurves or begins moving south of west and hits Nicaragua. Massive ridge over the south-central U.S. extending across the Gulf to the NW Caribbean and across the SE U.S. for all of next week.


It is what we in Texas affectionately call the Cockroach Ridge of Death. It has been large and in charge all summer long.

Even though I am not totally sold on a recurve, I think wxma57s graphic several pages back showed it quite well. Unless something moves the ridge back East to close off the weakness which should be caused by the trough it sure seems like it is a probability as opposed to a possibility. However this happens, our friends in the Islands are going to be dealing with a developing TC for the next few days and need to be prepared.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#1380 Postby bella_may » Sun Jul 31, 2011 10:00 am

Im seriously worried now that this might be a gom storm most all the spaghetti models have shifted south an west aiming towards the gom
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