ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[cycloneye]

Hehe, yea all of this talk of where the storm may or may not go, and for all we know, based on present conditions,
we may not end up with a storm at all.....

I said almost the same way back in the thread. If it not develops at all,for sure there will be many studys and papers about all this monsoon proccess that is a very slow one.

[Aric Dunn]

I think the models will continue to shift to the left until a defined low level center forms. Have observed this many times.....MGC

exactly.. because without a defined low that is intensifying its not going to feel the weakness and stay more west. and eventually if it take stoo long will miss the weakness completely and get stuck under the stronger ridge over the gulf and western carrib affecting central america... unless a trough can move the large ridge over the southern us out making another weakness. but no signs thats going to happen

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Unfortunatly, there is no doubt now that Florida is in play:

Don't post misinformation like that bro, it's VERY much in DOUBT that SFL will get anything more like some bands from this. If it doesn't get tangled up in the islands long enough for ridging to build in, still recurve IMHO.

I actually prefer being under the gun at the 4-5 day point. If she doesn't pull together soon - invariably the models will shift west.

[Aric Dunn]

Hehe, yea all of this talk of where the storm may or may not go, and for all we know, based on present conditions,
we may not end up with a storm at all.....

I said almost the same way back in the thread. If it not develops at all,for sure there will be many studys and papers about all this monsoon proccess that is a very slow one.

well you would hope there would be...

[Weatherfreak000]

Looking increasingly more likely this doesn't develop until central Caribbean, and thereafter the ridge would build in and force Emily perhaps into Central America. If Emily can't get going before it reaches the western Caribbean it will likely never get pulled North.

Chances of U.S. strike went from very low, to increasing, now falling again.

[Frank2]

After studying the visible loops this morning, it appears the main low level vorticity is centered right on the south coast of Barbados...with the mid-level circulation tilted to the northeast...I anticipate that these competing centers will "meet in the middle" later today. Here is a rough drawing of my idea:

When you need a football-play graphic to determine what a disturbance is doing, well, that's usually not a sign of a strong disturbance - when a system takes off it only requires a look of less than 2 seconds to see that it's a developing tropical cyclone...

Frank

[Weatherfreak000]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Unfortunatly, there is no doubt now that Florida is in play:

Don't post misinformation like that bro, it's VERY much in DOUBT that SFL will get anything more like some bands from this. If it doesn't get tangled up in the islands long enough for ridging to build in, still recurve IMHO.

I actually prefer being under the gun at the 4-5 day point. If she doesn't pull together soon - invariably the models will shift west.

Great point, members typically forget that in their excitement. An old joke between me and my father is if your in the 4-5 day cone you can pretty much feel good about the center ending up very far away from you.


Addendum: The majority of the models STILL showing recurve in that plot.

[stormreader]

Pressure center is displaced SW of the convection, as verified by recon. Maybe 14N/58.3W. Convection does appear to be building closer to the weak LLC. If that happens, then it will become Emily. But it's very disorganized presently.

I think WXMAN is right about convection building over what does appear to be a llc. I'm a little more optimistic about an upgrade than many of you seem to be this morning. I think we have a small system brewing here just east of the islands. And as wxman notes the pressure center is now a little further SW than originally expected, so I think when the upgrade to cyclone comes (sooner rather than later I think) initialization will be a little further south. We'll see if models react with a somewhat later than expected tug north (and a further west trend) because of the smaller size of the system. Just the opinion of an amateur.

[rockyman]

After studying the visible loops this morning, it appears the main low level vorticity is centered right on the south coast of Barbados...with the mid-level circulation tilted to the northeast...I anticipate that these competing centers will "meet in the middle" later today. Here is a rough drawing of my idea:

When you need a football-play graphic to determine what a disturbance is doing, well, that's usually not a sign of a strong disturbance - when a system takes off it only requires a look of less than 2 seconds to see that it's a developing tropical cyclone...

Frank

Very true! The last time I drew a map similar to this was in August of 2005, near the Bahamas

[SouthFLTropics]

After studying the visible loops this morning, it appears the main low level vorticity is centered right on the south coast of Barbados...with the mid-level circulation tilted to the northeast...I anticipate that these competing centers will "meet in the middle" later today. Here is a rough drawing of my idea:

When you need a football-play graphic to determine what a disturbance is doing, well, that's usually not a sign of a strong disturbance - when a system takes off it only requires a look of less than 2 seconds to see that it's a developing tropical cyclone...

Frank

Very true! The last time I drew a map similar to this was in August of 2005, near the Bahamas

OUCH Dare I say that was for an infamous "K" storm?

[Aric Dunn]

Pressure center is displaced SW of the convection, as verified by recon. Maybe 14N/58.3W. Convection does appear to be building closer to the weak LLC. If that happens, then it will become Emily. But it's very disorganized presently.

I think WXMAN is right about convection building over what does appear to be a llc. I'm a little more optimistic about an upgrade than many of you seem to be this morning. I think we have a small system brewing here just east of the islands. And as wxman notes the pressure center is now a little further SW than originally expected, so I think when the upgrade to cyclone comes (sooner rather than later I think) initialization will be a little further south. We'll see if models react with a somewhat later than expected tug north (and a further west trend) because of the smaller size of the system. Just the opinion of an amateur.

This is the same location and "pressure center" as I and many were following yesterday. it is again not moving much do to the motion of the gyre.

[underthwx]

EXTENDED PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL STAY WITH CLIMO
ON POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT IT WILL ALSO REMAIN HOT AND HUMID.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRES E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...A HUGE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE PER THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM WILL VARY DEPENDING UPON DEVELOPMENT WITH MODELS VARYING THE
LOCATION SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM E OF THE BAHAMAS CHAIN...TO ALONG THE
BAHAMAS CHAIN...TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND OFF THE NE COAST OF CUBA.
NON-DEVELOPMENT BY SOME MODELS LEAD TOWARD A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES
MOVING W ACROSS THE CARIB. A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AND
THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE MONITORED

9am Forecast discussion...Miami Fl.

[Evil Jeremy]

That plot is from last night. Current plot is less recurvy. Eirher way, recurve or not, florida is part of this now.

[stormreader]

I think the models will continue to shift to the left until a defined low level center forms. Have observed this many times.....MGC

exactly.. because without a defined low that is intensifying its not going to feel the weakness and stay more west. and eventually if it take stoo long will miss the weakness completely and get stuck under the stronger ridge over the gulf and western carrib affecting central america... unless a trough can move the large ridge over the southern us out making another weakness. but no signs thats going to happen

Also Aric, It's looking to me like this might be a small storm (size-wise) in the offing. Just look at latest sat pics. I think a definite llc is becoming better organized east of the islands (but its very small). Wondering if that will make it a little more difficult to feel the north tug in the short term thus allowing for a further west trend.

[Aric Dunn]

although its the nam... that is not a good track for south florida.. going the straights between cuba.. being over more water less mountains.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Weatherfreak000]

That plot is from last night. Current plot is less recurvy. Eirher way, recurve or not, florida is part of this now.

That's because it hasn't developed. Now..assuming you wanna see how this whole thing turns out (like me) you need to be getting VERY worried because if this doesn't start getting it's act together, and soon, SFL will likely be out of the ballgame.

It has now become a matter of timing. Very exciting time to be a weather enthusiast.

[artist]

communication problems again? No obs since 10:15

[Aric Dunn]

haha.. look at the cimss site.. there are 2 invests up... funny

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

[JPmia]

although its the nam... that is not a good track for south florida.. going the straights between cuba.. being over more water less mountains.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Oh wow even worse for Haiti.. I don't want to think of what that would do to them.

[Bocadude85]

That plot is from last night. Current plot is less recurvy. Eirher way, recurve or not, florida is part of this now.

For now.. the longer this system takes to pull together the further west it will go. Could just continue west and slam into Central America.