ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

well yeah its about to cross the islands in the next 4 to 5 hours..

Don't jump on me, jump on him. I'm just reporting lol[/quote]

I was... on him .. not you.. lol

[AdamFirst]

Best rotation is at 15.4N/60.3W. Could be forming an LLC there. The plane passed about 20-25 miles north of there on the way out.

That's the area I'n putting my money on. Recon will get back to it, no doubt.

[AJC3]

Remember, "the islands" is pretty generic. It could refer to the LA, the GA, the Bahamas or any combination thereof.

[Aric Dunn]

Remember, "the islands" is pretty generic. It could refer to the LA, the GA, the Bahamas or any combination thereof.

haha very true..

[ozonepete]

Aric you continue to amaze me. I honestly never would have bet on that LLC; meanwhile you stuck with it all day and now you are going to be right. It's sure looking like it's taking off now, while that MLC is finally giving up the ghost. Nice job.

[Bocadude85]

Daytona??
http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf ... 2_wind.png

Yea on that run looks to be headed toward the Central Florida Coast

[HurricaneWarning92]

fairly deep convection is increasing. Overall it is increasing...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

[Blown Away]

IMO, a significant bump in latitude to @15.3N from 12z position of 13.9N. This may allow 91L to skim the N coast of Hispaniola rather than going through it.

Blown Away, the significant jump isn't due to the storm suddenly changing forward direction, merely reestimating the center. It will likely happen again as the true low level becomes more obvious (see Aric's posts).

At the moment, with an unclassified system, all the models are fun and games anyway. We need a definitive center to track, with true storm strength input, and then the models will be able to let us know path a bit better. I highly suspect the more northern tracks in the short and mid term are not going to pan out, as the system has remained weak to date. IMHO
(S2K disclaimer)

I was not implying a change in forward direction, I just think a restimation of the center more than @1.5 degrees N of the 12z position may have significant effect on the ultimate track.

[RL3AO]

605
URNT15 KNHC 011746
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 10 20110801
173600 1444N 05849W 9761 00297 0097 +229 +159 145038 039 036 002 00
173630 1443N 05848W 9759 00295 0097 +228 +161 144036 037 035 002 00
173700 1442N 05847W 9760 00297 0097 +231 +164 146036 036 036 001 00
173730 1441N 05846W 9760 00296 0097 +230 +167 148034 035 034 001 00
173800 1441N 05845W 9761 00295 0097 +229 +169 149036 037 035 002 00
173830 1440N 05844W 9761 00294 0096 +231 +171 149038 039 036 002 00
173900 1439N 05843W 9758 00298 0095 +235 +173 148040 040 036 000 00
173930 1438N 05843W 9761 00293 0094 +240 +174 145039 039 038 000 00
174000 1437N 05842W 9760 00295 0093 +244 +176 147041 041 035 000 00
174030 1436N 05841W 9758 00296 0093 +245 +178 149041 041 035 001 00
174100 1435N 05840W 9760 00294 0093 +240 +180 151039 040 032 002 00
174130 1434N 05839W 9758 00296 0094 +240 +182 152037 038 032 002 00
174200 1433N 05838W 9761 00295 0094 +239 +184 152035 035 030 002 00
174230 1432N 05837W 9760 00295 0094 +242 +185 151034 035 028 000 00
174300 1431N 05836W 9759 00297 0095 +240 +186 150033 033 028 001 00
174330 1430N 05836W 9761 00295 0095 +241 +187 148033 033 028 001 00
174400 1429N 05835W 9760 00296 0095 +242 +187 147032 033 027 000 00
174430 1428N 05834W 9761 00296 0095 +245 +188 147032 033 025 001 00
174500 1428N 05833W 9759 00298 0096 +240 +189 147030 030 023 001 00
174530 1427N 05832W 9761 00297 0096 +240 +190 148029 029 024 001 00
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

12z GFDL still a recurve, but a bit more west than the last run:
http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl ... 2_wind.png

[caneseddy]

12z GFDL still a recurve, but a bit more west than the last run:
http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl ... 2_wind.png

The GFDL looks to be the easternmost outlier because it pretty much has the storm shooting NW plus it has it at a higher latitude than where it is currently located, methinks

[Aric Dunn]

There is some much improved SE, E, S inflow... seeing some SW now too.. dont think anything is going to stop it now..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[Bocadude85]

12z GFDL still a recurve, but a bit more west than the last run:
http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl ... 2_wind.png

Seems to be the only model still showing a recurve east of the Bahamas.

[RL3AO]

058
URNT15 KNHC 011756
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 11 20110801
174600 1426N 05831W 9761 00297 0097 +240 +191 148029 030 023 001 00
174630 1425N 05830W 9760 00298 0096 +242 +191 146030 030 026 000 00
174700 1424N 05829W 9761 00296 0096 +245 +191 147031 031 025 000 00
174730 1423N 05828W 9760 00297 0096 +245 +191 146030 030 024 000 00
174800 1422N 05827W 9760 00298 0096 +245 +192 145028 029 021 001 00
174830 1421N 05826W 9761 00296 0096 +245 +193 145028 028 023 001 00
174900 1420N 05825W 9758 00298 0096 +245 +193 144027 029 024 000 00
174930 1419N 05824W 9761 00297 0096 +245 +194 144026 027 026 002 00
175000 1418N 05823W 9761 00297 0097 +245 +195 146027 027 029 001 00
175030 1417N 05823W 9761 00297 0097 +245 +195 151027 028 030 001 00
175100 1416N 05822W 9759 00298 0096 +245 +196 153025 025 027 002 00
175130 1415N 05821W 9764 00294 0096 +245 +196 147026 027 029 001 00
175200 1414N 05820W 9760 00298 0096 +245 +196 145027 027 027 001 00
175230 1413N 05819W 9760 00298 0097 +245 +197 144025 026 027 001 00
175300 1412N 05818W 9761 00298 0097 +245 +197 147023 025 025 002 00
175330 1411N 05817W 9761 00298 0098 +245 +197 148022 022 023 000 00
175400 1410N 05816W 9757 00303 0098 +245 +197 147023 025 023 000 00
175430 1409N 05815W 9763 00298 0098 +247 +197 151026 026 027 002 00
175500 1408N 05814W 9761 00298 0098 +245 +197 151024 025 027 001 00
175530 1407N 05813W 9761 00299 0098 +246 +198 152025 026 027 000 00
$$
;

[beoumont]

Starting to recurve up the western part of Florida, AKA Frances 2004

Still thats mighty close to the Gulf!!

Well, kinda, after a while, north of Tampa; but Frances came WNW into Central Florida and made first landfall at Jensen Beach. I recall distinctly, as I was there and set a record for me by being in the calm eye for 7 1/2 hours.


As far as a trip through the Keys and up the west coast, Donna of 1960 probably better matches that portion of the GFS prog. at the moment.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES EASTWARD
FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
THIS MORNING. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM LATER TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A
TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Aric Dunn]

oh dear....

[RL3AO]

oh dear....

Going to take recon two hours to get back to the area that might have the low. Frustrating.

Clearly nothing where they are going.

[KWT]

Best rotation is at 15.4N/60.3W. Could be forming an LLC there. The plane passed about 20-25 miles north of there on the way out.

Yep thats where most of us have been watching for in the last ferw hours, clear to me the MLC is going no where, it may well reform west at some point...

Down to 80% as i expected, probably will go up again if recon goes through that area, that circulation at the surface is always going to need watching over and above any MLC.

[Frank2]

As the late HRD Director Dr. Rosenthal would say after seeing a photo like this (after my sitting all night nursing the DIFAX machine) - "Go home, Frank!" - it looks pretty weak at this time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg