ATL: EMILY - Remnants
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Hi,
First, sorry for my bad english...
So, this system will not cross Martinique?
I hope so, because here, nobody is ready...
We are working normally...
Thanks you for yours analyses since yesterday.
First, sorry for my bad english...
So, this system will not cross Martinique?
I hope so, because here, nobody is ready...
We are working normally...
Thanks you for yours analyses since yesterday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES EASTWARD
FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
THIS MORNING. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM LATER TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A
TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
clock reset-100% out the window, going with 80% until 2 pm weds
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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
ROCK wrote:http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP072.gif
72 hr still trekking under Hispa....
Eh..circulation disrupted by Haiti
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Michael
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
ROCK wrote:http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP072.gif
72 hr still trekking under Hispa....
Looks like it is headed for the Windward Passage between Eastern Cuba and Haiti
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Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 2 PM (18) Aug 01 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.80 (1009) W 3 rain showers
1 PM (17) Aug 01 89 (32) 77 (25) 29.80 (1009) NE 3
Noon (16) Aug 01 84 (29) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) NNW 10 light rain showers
11 AM (15) Aug 01 86 (30) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) NW 12
10 AM (14) Aug 01 86 (30) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) NNW 8
9 AM (13) Aug 01 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.85 (1011) NNW 8
8 AM (12) Aug 01 84 (29) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) NW 3
7 AM (11) Aug 01 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.83 (1010) SSE 6
6 AM (10) Aug 01 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) S 3
if this is right, there has been somewhat of a westerly component for the last 6 hours.
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 2 PM (18) Aug 01 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.80 (1009) W 3 rain showers
1 PM (17) Aug 01 89 (32) 77 (25) 29.80 (1009) NE 3
Noon (16) Aug 01 84 (29) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) NNW 10 light rain showers
11 AM (15) Aug 01 86 (30) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) NW 12
10 AM (14) Aug 01 86 (30) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) NNW 8
9 AM (13) Aug 01 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.85 (1011) NNW 8
8 AM (12) Aug 01 84 (29) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) NW 3
7 AM (11) Aug 01 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.83 (1010) SSE 6
6 AM (10) Aug 01 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) S 3
if this is right, there has been somewhat of a westerly component for the last 6 hours.
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System is disrputed by Hispaniola at 72hrs and so weakens, but the track looks further south and maybe also a threat to Cuba/Florida again.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Ivanhater wrote:ROCK wrote:http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP072.gif
72 hr still trekking under Hispa....
Eh..circulation disrupted by Haiti
hard to tell but to me it looks like the core is still wet...to the south....maybe your right....
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- Blown Away
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Re:
Hylian Auree wrote:This multi-vortice beast has led us into believing it was in the process of developing many times before. Wouldn't surprise me if it falls apart again soon ):
Got to remember many of us have Storm2k OCD, and even slight improvements in development get many of us very excited, but we realize it's still just a unorganized mess.
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Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05… Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif
if it wasn't for Hispainola South FL would be one dangerous place to live.
if it wasn't for Hispainola South FL would be one dangerous place to live.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
That could be the normal for them at that reporting station (perhaps a hill nearby, etc.) - a very weak wind like that really doesn't mean much...
Frank
Frank
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Latest 2 PM (18) Aug 01 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.80 (1009) W 3 rain showers
1 PM (17) Aug 01 89 (32) 77 (25) 29.80 (1009) NE 3
Noon (16) Aug 01 84 (29) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) NNW 10 light rain showers
11 AM (15) Aug 01 86 (30) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) NW 12
10 AM (14) Aug 01 86 (30) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) NNW 8
9 AM (13) Aug 01 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.85 (1011) NNW 8
8 AM (12) Aug 01 84 (29) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) NW 3
7 AM (11) Aug 01 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.83 (1010) SSE 6
6 AM (10) Aug 01 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) S 3
Actually in the weather business that's called "light and variable" - I wouldn't get in a cyclonic spin over it (lol)...
Frank
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Interesting west wind report, I doubt its enough on its own for an upgrade but if the NHC are looking at it it may well force them to shift thier focus to the area further west when it comes to developmental area.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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we will see.. the latest visible clearly shows a well defined LLC.. the surface winds probably still need to come up some but with the convection developing it wont take long now.. the circ is quickly becoming more defined.
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If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re:
KWT wrote:System is disrputed by Hispaniola at 72hrs and so weakens, but the track looks further south and maybe also a threat to Cuba/Florida again.
Everytime I look at this possible storm path based on the models, I keep thinking Cleo from 1964 where her disruption with Haiti caused her to drop to Category 1 when she entered Cuba, and then exited as a tropical storm and made landfall here in Miami as a Cat 2..I'm always wary of that little gap north of the islands between Bahamas and Florida
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- Hylian Auree
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Re: Re:
Blown Away wrote:Hylian Auree wrote:This multi-vortice beast has led us into believing it was in the process of developing many times before. Wouldn't surprise me if it falls apart again soon ):
Got to remember many of us have Storm2k OCD, and even slight improvements in development get many of us very excited, but we realize it's still just a unorganized mess.
I agree. This system is toying with our minds. It got me excited enough to pull an allnighter; it certainly has been an interesting track
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- SouthDadeFish
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Definitely looks like and LLC just east of Dominica to me....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html
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