ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Hylian Auree]

Bets on 5 PM classification? I say 40%

[JonathanBelles]

This is not a Tropical Storm. It may have winds between 45 and 50 mph, but it does not have a closed center, the definition of a tropical cyclone.

I think this may be a case where the NHC needs to put out some sort of product similar to a gale warning with tropical information. NWS PR is doing the right think by posting information about the what if this thing does not develop with strong wording.

[SouthFLTropics]

Cyclone1...Now that's funny but probably shows how we all feel right about now...

[Evil Jeremy]

If they choose to upgrade, the renumber can come at any moment now. I wouldn't put it past them to issue a special advisory later tonight, before 11pm.

[SouthDadeFish]

We don't know if the circulation center is closed or not because they never flew south of it....

[Ivanhater]

This is not a Tropical Storm. It may have winds between 45 and 50 mph, but it does not have a closed center, the definition of a tropical cyclone.

I think this may be a case where the NHC needs to put out some sort of product similar to a gale warning with tropical information. NWS PR is doing the right think by posting information about the what if this thing does not develop with strong wording.

You realize Recon has not sampled the southern side of the circulation right?

[Gustywind]

THAT'S RIGHT: THERE IS AN EVIDENT LLC NEAR 15,5n AND 60,5 OUEST JUST EAST OF DOMINICA.vISIBLE IN THE FLOATER LOOP.
Here in the soutern tip of Guadeloupe( where i can see Dominica),the sky are cloudy the wind ENE and i registered 12m/s wind in my official anemometer during a breaf squall. So this is a sheared system like a lot in this area; but seems that naer 15N 58O there is some circulation( mid level???). Stay tuned,i will go again in two hours to recorded the wind and confirmed the plane observations in the area east of Dominica...

Thanks for these so precious observations HUC Nothing special in my area... with briefs and modests squalls sometimes strong, wind is relatively calm and weather is very cloudy, grey.

[Extratropical94]

Observation 24...why, with the variety of stuff they can do, don't they just fly around the spot where wind direction changes and see if it is closed.



000
URNT15 KNHC 012006
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 24 20110801
195600 1556N 05936W 9761 00293 0094 +228 +203 136037 038 027 002 00
195630 1557N 05934W 9758 00298 0095 +228 +204 135036 037 030 003 00
195700 1558N 05933W 9758 00297 0095 +229 +204 133033 035 026 003 00
195730 1559N 05932W 9761 00295 0095 +235 +205 130036 037 027 002 03
195800 1600N 05931W 9757 00299 0096 +236 +206 124034 035 /// /// 03
195830 1601N 05933W 9758 00297 0095 +236 +209 122034 034 025 002 03
195900 1601N 05934W 9763 00293 0095 +233 +211 127034 036 029 002 03
195930 1601N 05936W 9761 00294 0095 +230 +213 128033 034 027 004 00
200000 1601N 05938W 9761 00294 0094 +230 +213 128034 036 029 002 00
200030 1601N 05940W 9760 00295 0095 +228 +213 128033 035 029 001 00
200100 1601N 05942W 9759 00296 0095 +225 +212 128033 034 029 003 00
200130 1601N 05944W 9763 00292 0095 +226 +212 126032 034 027 004 00
200200 1601N 05945W 9757 00297 0095 +225 +211 125034 035 031 003 00
200230 1601N 05947W 9759 00295 0095 +225 +210 125033 034 029 002 00
200300 1601N 05949W 9757 00298 0095 +225 +210 124033 034 032 000 00
200330 1601N 05951W 9760 00295 0094 +225 +209 124036 037 033 002 00
200400 1601N 05953W 9760 00293 0094 +227 +208 122037 039 034 001 00
200430 1601N 05955W 9759 00294 0093 +227 +208 121036 038 034 002 00
200500 1601N 05956W 9760 00294 0093 +228 +208 119038 039 032 003 00
200530 1601N 05958W 9759 00294 0094 +229 +207 122037 037 035 002 00
$$
;

[northjaxpro]

The NHC usually errors on the side of caution. If they have evidence that causes them to believe there is a LLC I think they will classify it since it its literally over the Lesser Antilles right now. Just my opinion.

I agree. If Recon is sending them info which leads to enough credence that a LLC has closed off, they will initiate advisories. My guess we will probably have a special advisory sometime later this evening if they don't do this at 5 p.m.

[JonathanBelles]

This is not a Tropical Storm. It may have winds between 45 and 50 mph, but it does not have a closed center, the definition of a tropical cyclone.

I think this may be a case where the NHC needs to put out some sort of product similar to a gale warning with tropical information. NWS PR is doing the right think by posting information about the what if this thing does not develop with strong wording.

You realize Recon has not sampled the southern side of the circulation right?

They did an alpha pattern around what their instruments showed as a circulation..which did not include west winds. I would like to see the area just south of where those winds went nearly calm, but with what recon gave them the NHC doesn't have undeniable evidence of a cyclone.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm suspecting they are sampling the wind profile for a classification at 5pm... Just my own thoughts. Satellite imagery strongly suggests we have a closed LLC along with some Lesser Antilles wind reports and recon data.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Can't they also use ship reports and ground reports to establish that west wind?

[Sanibel]

The current LLC was what was causing the eastern disturbance yesterday. It has tracked west and is now in its present position. I don't think this is anything near what Aric was suggesting was the main center yesterday, if I understand correctly. With the strong westerly shear you are currently seeing the eastern convection was the reflection of this present LLC.

[jonj2040]

Disregard the icon that says Emily for the next few posts it was a mistake and is incorrect it is still 91L


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[SouthDadeFish]

This is not a Tropical Storm. It may have winds between 45 and 50 mph, but it does not have a closed center, the definition of a tropical cyclone.

I think this may be a case where the NHC needs to put out some sort of product similar to a gale warning with tropical information. NWS PR is doing the right think by posting information about the what if this thing does not develop with strong wording.

You realize Recon has not sampled the southern side of the circulation right?

They did an alpha pattern around what their instruments showed as a circulation..which did not include west winds. I would like to see the area just south of where those winds went nearly calm, but with what recon gave them the NHC doesn't have undeniable evidence of a cyclone.

They couldn't fly over Martinique to get far enough south, but the wind did shift from NNW to SE, indicative of a weak circulation center....

[Aric Dunn]

finally wind switches NW in Martinique...

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TFFF.html

[Ivanhater]

You made my point...they did not go far enough south to close the center. We will have to wait til they circle back

[beoumont]

Well, I am satisfied. Thank you Vbhoutex. How come no one else can say this?

Ditto.

Yes, at this point in time the visible sat. and surface obs shows a broad, in the clear of the hard convection, surface low passing through the islands. This might very well become dominant.

But, that circulation could also just be running away from the convection of the western blob under which it was located earlier, just above the surface. There certainly have been various centers at various levels with this easterly wave for several days now.

[fci]

This is about as borderline a situation as I've ever seen. It's so close...

I say upgrade. It already in the islands, so Warnings would neeed to go up asap. But then again, Id wait so it doesnt poof and they look like fools, so...yeah borderline

It was brought up earlier but I don't understand why watches can't be issued even if an area is just an Invest. Watch indicates TS Conditions are "possible" and surely that would be true here.

[RL3AO]

Winds should start becoming more easterly in Dominica and westerly in Martinique.