ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

Convection is surging toward the possible LLC

yeah all the low level clouds are thickening around the LLC .. convection should really fire soon.

[Extratropical94]

Observation 26...heading south towards the LLC


000
URNT15 KNHC 012026
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 26 20110801
201600 1603N 06038W 9756 00290 0087 +232 +189 093038 040 034 003 00
201630 1603N 06040W 9761 00287 0085 +236 +190 090041 043 037 007 00
201700 1602N 06042W 9753 00294 0086 +223 +193 093044 047 037 004 00
201730 1602N 06044W 9757 00289 0086 +225 +193 095043 045 035 007 00
201800 1602N 06046W 9761 00286 0087 +216 +192 096042 043 040 005 00
201830 1602N 06048W 9758 00287 0085 +230 +190 091042 043 036 004 00
201900 1601N 06050W 9763 00284 0084 +231 +190 090039 040 038 003 00
201930 1601N 06052W 9765 00283 0084 +231 +192 091039 040 033 006 00
202000 1601N 06054W 9761 00284 0083 +233 +194 089039 040 035 004 00
202030 1601N 06056W 9760 00285 0083 +235 +197 089041 042 036 002 00
202100 1600N 06058W 9760 00286 0083 +234 +199 087041 042 035 004 00
202130 1600N 06100W 9761 00285 0085 +232 +201 086038 039 032 004 03
202200 1558N 06100W 9757 00289 0083 +233 +203 086034 036 028 006 03
202230 1557N 06100W 9765 00280 0082 +233 +206 084037 038 030 003 00
202300 1555N 06100W 9761 00284 0081 +231 +207 085036 038 026 006 00
202330 1554N 06100W 9758 00284 0080 +233 +208 085034 035 032 005 00
202400 1552N 06100W 9758 00285 0079 +235 +209 083034 035 027 001 00
202430 1551N 06100W 9762 00280 0078 +236 +211 081033 034 028 000 00
202500 1549N 06100W 9761 00281 0078 +235 +212 083033 033 028 002 00
202530 1548N 06100W 9758 00283 0078 +235 +214 081032 033 026 003 00
$$
;

[beoumont]

[
Definitely. My personal nickname for this is the omni-vortice beast for a reason.

I wouldn't designate this as a depression, if I was the NHC forecaster on duty, at 5 pm. But, of course, I am simply playing meteorologist on any internet forum.

My reasoning would be: deep convection not co-located with center for over 6 hrs.

I would say, "A large area -- -- -- ---, accompanied by a broad surface low, (as they have been saying for awhile now)."

It is a fact that some open waves in the past have contained squalls with winds of 60 to even 75 mph, without a closed circulation (the wave that eventually became Camille had such winds near the Lesser Antilles; and there have been others). Watches and warnings for dangerous weather ahead do not have to be accompanied by a named tropical system.

[Sanibel]

The reason you can tell this present LLC has no connection to yesterday's western convection is because the eastern convection formed a center burst that maintained as the center ever since while the western convection area dissipated. In a western shear, with the eastern blob maintaining its form, it is scientifically impossible for this to be related to yesterday's western feature.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

models aren't taking into account a possible cut off low moving across Florida late in the week and along the northern gulf coast, are they? I don't see that indication anywhere, yet a few models are indicating that "in general" if not looking specifically at 91L's future.
-or have they all dropped that possibility today?

[jonj2040]

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[SouthDadeFish]

Look at the huge curved band developing on the SE side, and convection quickly moving towards the LLC. This is a TS in my book. But my book doesn't count for much.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[Stormcenter]

Looks like a jog/wobble to my untrained eyes.

http://bvihurricane.com/files/Invest-91L-Aug-1-28am-sat-anim.gif


movement slightly WNW?.....or just a jog in the loop..........

[Florida1118]

Looks like a no go for 5pm, perhaps a special at 8pm or a wait until 11pm I guess. JMO

[Stormcenter]

Why is this not at least a TD yet?

[Aric Dunn]

clearly waiting on recon to pass or get some sort of reading on south side.

[jonj2040]

south


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[FireRat]

Looking at the satellite, the storm is still broad and slowly organizing. After the islands get dumped on tonight, I think that this system could seriously threaten DR and Haiti with dangerous heavy rain by August 4th. Most models show 91L heading straight for Hispaniola and I really hope that this does not turn into a hurricane three days out...Haiti does not need another disaster. I hope weather officials alert the nation now, so a flood catastrophe can be mitigated in case 91L decides to acquire strength and copious moisture as it nears them.


As for a Florida track, this will all depend on what happens to 91L/soon to be Emily after encountering the mountains of Hispaniola. If the current burst lasts over 6 hours, this thing could finally establish a strong circulation at low levels and be a true tropical storm by tomorrow AM IMO.

[ROCK]

Looks like a jog/wobble to my untrained eyes.

http://bvihurricane.com/files/Invest-91L-Aug-1-28am-sat-anim.gif


movement slightly WNW?.....or just a jog in the loop..........

yeah and that loop is from yesterday.....

[Ivanhater]

Why does it say Emily?

[Ivanhater]

Headed south toward the possible center now

[Tropics Guy]

Much better Satellite presentation in the last few hrs, convection firing near the LLC, Recon probably still awaiting West winds confirm , then you'll have the upgrade .............

TG

[SunnyThoughts]

Why does it say Emily?

Was wondering that too. I noticed the earlier graphics didn't have it named.

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon heading due South towards center. We should know if its closed within the next 30 minutes.

[OURAGAN]

i notice that