ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[MGC]

I can't believe the NHC is going to upgrade this piece of junk. The forecasters over at the NHC are most probably trying to talk the forecaster with the least seniority to write the first advisory....MGC

[KWT]

Yep its a TC, just waiting for an offical update now, but its nearly 100% certain...

[Ivanhater]

I would caution some of you thinking a storm cannot ramp up quickly aftrer being knocked down over the mountains. Hurricane Dennis in 2005 that hit the Pensacola metro was a Catagory 4 before traversing Cuba, knocked down to a Cat 1, then in less than 1 day ramped back up to a Catagory 4 in the Gulf.

[shaggy]

I think its the jump NNW from Hispaniola that causes the system to get taken up further east then previous runs...not going to be able to say either way whats likely in that respect...given mountions can do interesting things to storms...

nopte the ridging is a good deal weaker...

Gatorcane, interesting but previous runs have seen this system bomb and still head WNW/NW close to Florida...so not sure its all because of strength, I think its highly likely just a case that the upper ridging is quite ALOT weaker this run eyeballing it...

Theres almost no ridging and I would think a full sharp recurve like the GFDL showed if the GFS is correct.

Anyone know how much data from the gulfstream flights are being ingested now?

[Extratropical94]

Now the waiting is actually over, I still can't believe it.
Four days of pure fun, thank you 91L.

[JPmia]

GFS appears to ramp her/it up quickly.. do we really believe this will happen considering what we've gone through today? lol

simple answer is yes...probably will be able to develop at a decent clip from now on...

I have my doubts for now, but that would explain that run.. stonger storm feels that weakness to the north along with a weaker ridge. I wonder if they'll keep doing the G-IV missions to continue getting data on the surrounding environment to feed into the models.

[Recurve]

Renumbered from an invest AL91 to the fifth tropical cyclone: AL05 2011
The message had 40 knots as windspeed, so that would make it a tropical storm that would be named Emily. But no advisory on the NHC site yet.

Correct?

[Aric Dunn]

I think its the jump NNW from Hispaniola that causes the system to get taken up further east then previous runs...not going to be able to say either way whats likely in that respect...given mountions can do interesting things to storms...

nopte the ridging is a good deal weaker...

Gatorcane, interesting but previous runs have seen this system bomb and still head WNW/NW close to Florida...so not sure its all because of strength, I think its highly likely just a case that the upper ridging is quite ALOT weaker this run eyeballing it...

Theres almost no ridging and I would think a full sharp recurve like the GFDL showed if the GFS is correct.

Anyone know how much data from the gulfstream flights are being ingested now?

there is quite a bit of ridging that build in.. and all the other models have strong ridging..

[cheezyWXguy]

im still not sold on the recurve. i still expect this thing to go in eastern gulf or even possibly the central gulf. JMO

Me neither, but Im starting to doubt a gulf hit now. I sort of had a feeling the models would shift west, but eventually reach an extreme and start heading back the other way, eventually compromising between the western solution and the eastern one seen a few days ago. If I had to guess right now, Id think this storm would move along the north side of the DR and then up the east coast of florida, but thats just my take on the situation. Lots of variables at play right now, and new info coming in for the 0z model suite will likely make or break my prediction.

[KWT]

I can't believe the NHC is going to upgrade this piece of junk. The forecasters over at the NHC are most probably trying to talk the forecaster with the least seniority to write the first advisory....MGC

wow really?

Its looking much better now, take a look at the Vis imagery, its rapidly pulled itself together.

[Extratropical94]

Observation 39


000
URNT15 KNHC 012236
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 39 20110801
222600 1342N 06017W 9760 00288 0085 +239 +216 156013 014 007 002 00
222630 1343N 06015W 9761 00287 0085 +238 +216 155013 013 011 002 00
222700 1343N 06014W 9761 00286 0085 +240 +216 161013 013 010 002 00
222730 1344N 06013W 9764 00284 0085 +240 +216 161014 015 004 003 00
222800 1345N 06011W 9764 00285 0085 +239 +217 164015 016 009 002 00
222830 1346N 06010W 9765 00283 0085 +239 +217 164015 016 010 001 00
222900 1347N 06009W 9764 00283 0084 +240 +217 164015 015 007 003 00
222930 1347N 06007W 9762 00284 0084 +238 +217 165016 016 013 001 00
223000 1348N 06006W 9759 00288 0085 +235 +218 165016 016 014 002 00
223030 1349N 06004W 9772 00277 0085 +235 +218 166018 018 016 001 00
223100 1350N 06003W 9761 00286 0085 +236 +218 165018 019 017 001 00
223130 1351N 06002W 9766 00282 0085 +236 +217 165019 020 015 002 00
223200 1352N 06000W 9762 00285 0084 +240 +217 164019 020 016 001 00
223230 1353N 05959W 9762 00285 0084 +240 +216 161019 019 017 000 00
223300 1353N 05958W 9765 00282 0085 +239 +217 163019 019 018 002 00
223330 1354N 05957W 9764 00285 0085 +235 +217 165022 023 012 003 03
223400 1356N 05956W 9765 00283 0085 +237 +216 162023 024 018 003 03
223430 1357N 05957W 9768 00280 0085 +235 +215 157019 021 018 003 00
223500 1358N 05958W 9759 00288 0084 +236 +215 152019 020 018 003 00
223530 1400N 06000W 9764 00283 0084 +235 +215 152018 018 012 003 00
$$
;

[AdamFirst]

Renumbered from an invest AL91 to the fifth tropical cyclone: AL05 2011
The message had 40 knots as windspeed, so that would make it a tropical storm that would be named Emily. But no advisory on the NHC site yet.

Correct?

Sounds about right.

[Dean4Storms]

No matter its appearance right now, all that does matter is a closed LL circulation, warm core and winds greater than 34mph. It fits all this!

[Hylian Auree]

Junk???? I'm not sure you're looking at the same system as us, lol

[KWT]

Welcome Emily. You kept us waiting long enough, I'd say

Talk about some labor pains getting her here...Geez! I'm thinking everyone on S2K should go and have a pink cigar now.

SFT

Whats quite interesting is hiow the convection exploded at EXACTLY the same point as the convection I mentioned earlier to the south-west of the system...

I said it was backbuilding and that was probably a hint that there was where the convergence was located...seems like that is exactly what has happened here...

[shaggy]

I think its the jump NNW from Hispaniola that causes the system to get taken up further east then previous runs...not going to be able to say either way whats likely in that respect...given mountions can do interesting things to storms...

nopte the ridging is a good deal weaker...

Gatorcane, interesting but previous runs have seen this system bomb and still head WNW/NW close to Florida...so not sure its all because of strength, I think its highly likely just a case that the upper ridging is quite ALOT weaker this run eyeballing it...

Theres almost no ridging and I would think a full sharp recurve like the GFDL showed if the GFS is correct.

Anyone know how much data from the gulfstream flights are being ingested now?

there is quite a bit of ridging that build in.. and all the other models have strong ridging..

I am looking at the 162 hour GFS and all I see are westerly winds from SC up through the mid atlantic?

[HurricaneWarning92]

I can't believe the NHC is going to upgrade this piece of junk. The forecasters over at the NHC are most probably trying to talk the forecaster with the least seniority to write the first advisory....MGC

wow really?

Its looking much better now, take a look at the Vis imagery, its rapidly pulled itself together.

I agree with KWT. Besides even if it looked "like a piece of junk", they have still found the missing pieces to declare it a TC.

[jonj2040]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[SouthFLTropics]

91L is gone from the S2K map...It's only a matter of time now and we should get the official word. I would expect a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement from the NHC by no later than 8:00PM

SFT

[artist]

according to NRL it is TD5
http://tiny.cc/2uqxr