#5 Postby ameriwx2003 » Tue Aug 26, 2003 4:20 pm
Perry agreed.It sure does look like a Wet Labor Day week-end is in store for Florida. The Melbourne AFD really has a nice discussion adressing this issue as well:):)
FXUS62 KMLB 261923
AFDMLB
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003
...POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN SETTING UP FOR THIS WEEKEND AND
BEYOND...
.THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...STORMS WILL CONTINUE A WWD
PROGRESSION THIS EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS ACTIVITY
MAINLY SHIFTS TO THE WEST PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. INFLUENCE OF
RIDGE INVOF AREA WILL REALLY BEGIN TO TAKE EFFECT OVERNIGHT WITH
DEEPER LAYER OF DRY AIR ENVELOPING THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE LIMITED COASTAL ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE TO
MARTIN AND ST LUCIE CO'S EARLY WED AS GRADIENT FLOW ELSEWHERE WILL
REMAIN TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MARINE SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST.
WED-FRI...DLM RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN ATLC AND EXTENDING INTO
NORTH FL THROUGH THU AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY THROUGH
THE NERN CONUS. THE H50 RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY/STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTH
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO CARVE OUT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL PULL THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE NWD AS WELL...RESULTING
IN FRESHENING EASTERLIES AND OVERALL SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE PRECIP
REGIME FOR ECFL. BY FRI...PGRAD WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO WHERE
COASTAL AREAS WILL APPROACH BREEZY CONDS...BUT COVERAGE STILL ON THE
LOW SIDE EARLY ON.
THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE FRI INTO SAT AS THE A T-WAVE OVER
THE NE CARIB/GREATER ANTILLES APPROACHES THE STATE. THE GFS' QUICK
CLOSED LOW SPINUP OVER THE BAHAMAS...ALTHOUGH PSBL...SEEMS THE LEAST
LIKELY OF THE SOLNS SEEN GIVEN IT'S SHEARED/ELONGATED APPEARANCE ON
VIS IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE GFS BIAS...AND IT'S LACK OF CONTINUITY
WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN
THE AMPLITUDE/NWD EXTENT OF THE WAVE APPARENT IN VSBL IMAGERY...
IT'S EFFECTS WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING I'VE
CHOSEN TO GO WITH WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY (PERHAPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL
THE FRI NIGHT) AND WILL TREND FRI GRIDS TWD INCRSG CLDS/POPS LATE.
SAT-TUE...LOOKING AT THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE...MED RANGE GUIDANCE IS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN ERODING/BREAKING DOWN THE STRONG ERN/SERN
CONUS AND WRN ATLC H50 RIDGE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES OFFSHORE THE
ERN CONUS AND COOL CNDN HIGH PRES PUSHES FRONTAL BDRY INTO THE SERN
CONUS. BDRY WILL EVENTUALLY LAY OUT W-E OR WSW-ENE AND STALL TUE
WELL NORTH OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...THE RESULTANT COLLAPSE OF THE
DEEP LAYER FLOW BETWEEN 80W AND 90W WILL BE PROBLEMATIC W/R/T THE
POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF THE E CARIB T-WAVE ON FL.
WHAT IS TROUBLING HERE IS THAT MOST MED RANGE GUIDANCE (SAVE FOR THE
ECM) SHOWS LOW PRES IN THE NE GOMEX MON/TUE...A FUNCTION OF EITHER
LOW PRES FORMING NEAR THE STALLED FRONT/REMNANTS...THE T-WAVE ITSELF
...OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO. WITH THE MEAN LAYER FLOW COLLAPSING
TO THE NORTH...THIS FEATURE (IN WHATEVER FORM) IS LIKELY TO WIND UP
MOVING BY (OR OVER) THE STATE VERY SLOWLY...AND THE WORST (GFS) CASE
WOULD HAVE IT STALL OVER THE ERN GOMEX/FL FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HENCE...
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN COULD LINGER INTO MID WEEK. OBVIOUSLY
THIS IS DEPENDENT UPON WHAT THE FEATURE DOES...BUT IF THE OVERALL
CONTINUITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SUITE HOLDS THEN FLOOD WATCHES MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...PREVIOUS RUN OF WAVE WATCH III INDICATED 10 FT SEAS BY
FRIDAY. WITH A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM PROGGED BY THE GFS...LATEST RUN OF
THE WAVE WATCH ONLY BRINGS THEM UP TO 5 FT. WILL TREND SEAS IN THAT
DIRECTION. OTHERWISE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN CLIMO 2-3 FT
COMBINED SEAS.
...PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB BB 074/087 073/087 075 121
MCO BB 074/090 074/090 074 232
MLB BB 075/088 075/088 076 121
VRB BB 076/088 076/088 076 121 60
.MLB...NONE.
SHORT-TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG-TERM...CRISTALDI
$$
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