ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[HurricaneWarning92]

Well, we're getting to that time of year....hope Emily keeps weak and doesn't cause much destruction, and pain for people. Fingers crossed that we're looking at a fish storm. It's exciting to watch them blow up over water and away from land.

Its not a fish storm as it has affected the Lesser Antilles in some way.

[Aric Dunn]

by 105 hours.. really starts losing it..

I didnt even know the gfs had 81, 93, or 105 hr displays on it... all ive ever seen is the generic 6 hr intervals on the ncep sight.

its new site..

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... magesurls=[mag.domain.fhrImage%4014922dd%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%408fdbd3%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%40a92f46%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%4015ebbc7%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%407a0998%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%40c0996%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%40497fe8%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%4016c7c65%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%4015acca4%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%40314795%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%4015294a2%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%409c24aa%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%4012b54cf%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%401cd1b0e%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%40ab371b%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%40aefd24%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%406d7e3a%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%407a3d23%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%40143f650%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%40e03c62%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%4019c7591%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%40ea8577%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%40e07a5d%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%401817959%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%40145ead6%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%4013ca707%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%40f9d9ec%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%40152343a%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%401e2e835%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%401fb2c0a%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%401084690%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%4050c8ae%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%401a723fa%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%402b2325%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%40107e55%2C+mag.domain.fhrImage%40d61406]&cycle=08%2F02%2F2011+00UTC&storm=&prevPage=Param&page=Param&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&imageSize=M&currKey=region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&page=Param&prevPage=Param

[TheDreamTraveler]

Well, we're getting to that time of year....hope Emily keeps weak and doesn't cause much destruction, and pain for people. Fingers crossed that we're looking at a fish storm. It's exciting to watch them blow up over water and away from land. It's not exciting when they come close to people.

Emily's actually around land and is most likely heading directly into the islands which will, and is, effecting people...this isn't a fish storm.

[StormTracker]

After 71 pages of this, all I can say is WOW!!! Good night all!!!

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, we're getting to that time of year....hope Emily keeps weak and doesn't cause much destruction, and pain for people. Fingers crossed that we're looking at a fish storm. It's exciting to watch them blow up over water and away from land.

Its not a fish storm as it has affected the Lesser Antilles in some way.

But, it's weak....just don't wish a hurricane on anyone...right now it's weaker than a Summertime thunderstorm over New Orleans. Just don't want it to cause death in areas that are poor and/or still recovering from an earthquake.

[ROCK]

It does seem the LLC has continued to race forward while the convection is hanging up over the Islands

look at radar.. clearly slight to the south .. may have reformed or migrated to convection..

yep definely a center relocation....we just saw...

[Aric Dunn]

very interesting the nogaps is just like the NAM... heading south of hispanola nearing Jamaica .. a little faster though .. has the trough lifting out real fast..
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ConvergenceZone]

What's up with the models wanting to kill everything this year? Euro has been hesitant on this storm the whole time as well... Hmmm...

Yea, after th latest model runs, I'm really starting to doubt that Emily is going to amount to much. Why? Because of the way that the models have all the sudden turned bearish on development. It would be one thing if only 1 or 2 models were showing it, but when they are start to show it, you've got to start paying attention that they may be on to something....

The models finally have a named storm to work with, which would make me thing they would be more accurate...I think we will know much much more regarding strength 24 hours from now...

[SouthDadeFish]

This is arguably the most confusing storm I've ever seen.

[Aric Dunn]

48 hr nogaps..

[CourierPR]

Even if Emily recurves it would likely affect more of the Antilles and The Bahamas. Hardly a fish storm, in my opinion.

[ROCK]

This is arguably the most confusing storm I've ever seen.

you should have joined in 2004..... this aint nothing...


the NAM,NOGAPS and CMC have been mirroring each other most of the time so far.....got to start weighing those models more IMO....in any case another shift west coming up....

[Annie Oakley]

Heads spinning all around.........Recon will tell us more. Just how much can a human being tell us in advance about an approaching storm? That is why science needs more funding.

[SouthDadeFish]

This is arguably the most confusing storm I've ever seen.

you should have joined in 2004..... this aint nothing...

Which storms in '04? Jeanne was pretty bad...

[HurricaneWarning92]

Well, we're getting to that time of year....hope Emily keeps weak and doesn't cause much destruction, and pain for people. Fingers crossed that we're looking at a fish storm. It's exciting to watch them blow up over water and away from land.

Its not a fish storm as it has affected the Lesser Antilles in some way.

But, it's weak....just don't wish a hurricane on anyone...right now it's weaker than a Summertime thunderstorm over New Orleans. Just don't want it to cause death in areas that are poor and/or still recovering from an earthquake.

I understand that. But nobody wants a hurricane or storm to go to these areas as they have dealt with other tragic disasters in the past, but a weak or strong system could still have devastating results because the wind is not the only factor that causes destruction. In fact, the winds have the least impact on human beings. Its the storm surge and rain that cause it specially over high mountainous areas where mudslides are possible. This is why this is not a fish storm. Fish storms affect only the "fish".

[Aric Dunn]

nogaps landfalling in jamaica.. lol

[ROCK]

Heads spinning all around.........Recon will tell us more. Just how much can a human being tell us in advance about an approaching storm? That is why science needs more funding.

whats bad is RECON did nothing for the 0z GFS with the data it provided....

[Aric Dunn]

Heads spinning all around.........Recon will tell us more. Just how much can a human being tell us in advance about an approaching storm? That is why science needs more funding.

whats bad is RECON did nothing for the 0z GFS with the data it provided....

it did.. just gfs did not know what to do with it..

the nogaps shifted west...

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

This is arguably the most confusing storm I've ever seen.

you should have joined in 2004..... this aint nothing...

Which storms in '04? Jeanne was pretty bad...

use this it will help...

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/index.html