ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[ROCK]

well if that is going to verify..Emily better start gaining some lat.....

[weatherSnoop]

And the lowest pressure is on approach to hispanola...not good

[ROCK]

Remains 40mph.

2:00 AM AST Tue Aug 2
Location: 15.5°N 63.5°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb

17 is hauling butt.....that ridge to the north is strong

[HurricaneWarning92]

HWRF is further west.

[dwsqos2]

Erika is actually a relevant mention because this may be having the same issue Erika had, namely strong winds below the 200 mb level undercutting otherwise impressive upper-level outflow.

[WxEnthus]

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY...AND
APPROACH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

[Hurricaneman]

That green spot indicative of intense cloud top temperatures sits right over the proposed redeveloped low-level circulation... if this is indeed the case, it'd be a dangerously favorable set-up for development...

according to the NHC, there is no center relocation as of now

[ROCK]

GFDL is running...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL024.gif


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL030.gif

[WxEnthus]

Waiting on first set of hdobs from this mornings mission.

Do we know if they've taken off as scheduled?

[Hylian Auree]

Well, we'd be more sure with recon in the system, but they seem to have disappeared

[HurricaneBrain]

With all due respect Nicole, it didn't seem like you were "simply going over possibilities" when you make a statement like "Gulf of Mexico it is! " Simply in my opinion, this does not look like a Gulf storm to me as of right now.

[ROCK]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL054.gif

54hr exiting with whats left after Hispa....


96hr

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL096.gif

[WxEnthus]

That green spot indicative of intense cloud top temperatures sits right over the proposed redeveloped low-level circulation... if this is indeed the case, it'd be a dangerously favorable set-up for development...

according to the NHC, there is no center relocation as of now

I'm curious how far in advance they prepare the write-up for an advisory. Considering that this (possibly) just happened in the last little while, perhaps they aren't including it, or at least not until it can be verified. Recon sure would be a help here.

[HurricaneWarning92]

40 mph? it looks stronger than that.

[SFLcane]

GFDL comes westward from its 18z run right of the florida eastcoast.

[dwsqos2]

Actually it doesn't look stronger than that. It's still warrants a T2.5 classification.

[Dave]

Hate to be this way but I have a meeting at 8 am this morning so....I'm gonna go get some sleep. Be back here around noon. Goodnight all...stay safe where ever you are.

[psyclone]

63.5 longitude appears to be west of the convective canopy per the sat pic on the prior page. if that's the case we have a very poorly organized system with the entire convective blob east of the coc.

[ROCK]

GFDL still wants to take this to sea.....what a mess...no model consensus....

[HurricaneBrain]

Nothing indicates this will go into the Gulf. Check out the latest models: https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_05.gif

Nogaps is old on there, Current one is here https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2011080200&prod=z85&tau=120&set=Tropical

Canadian is in the gulf in the image you posted

UKMET is in the gulf in the image you posted

I guess I should've been more careful in how I typed my words. I meant that most models are in general agreement that this will head to the eastern side of Florida. The Gulf is certainly a possibility, I just don't see it happening with the model agreement.