ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[tolakram]

I think Stationary translates into No Clue, wait till next advisory.

[Gustywind]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 63.6W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Not a good scenario for us the Leewards Cycloneye Emily outer bands could bring heavy downpours in vicinity of the islands.

[caneseddy]

No change in forecast track from earlier this morning

[jonj2040]

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[Ivanhater]

Lol..this storm is too much!

[KWT]

Storms very rarely reform centers anti-poleward.

Funnily enough Don attempted it before its landfall but couldn't puill it off...

I'd like to see one more pass through to be sure thats the true center and not just an eddy that is for now preventing the other northern one from closing off...

Still it would make sense given the deep convection...

PS, stationary certainly is an interesting motion!!

[hurricaneCW]

Lol..this storm is too much!

Fay was a lot worse

[KWT]

I will step in with the raw text....

[psyclone]

perhaps center reformations are making it difficult to ascertain a forward motion. last night's speed may have been overestimated and now it may be underestimated. tough to imagine it has really stalled with the high just to the north...center lurching is probably giving the appearance of a brief stop.

[Mouton]

Looks like the NHC has moved the 5 day cone to the east by a degree or so.

Still forecast to cross Hispanola and stay at TS status for most of its trip.

[KWT]

Haha the system has stalled!

Take any forecasts with huge pinch of salt tonight people, not sure the models have all that good a grip on the upper pattern close to Emily right now...and if its slower then expected then that will mean it probably won't gain as much latitutde.

[Aric Dunn]

So no real changes to track forecast or thinking. just have to see how far west she gets before turning.. just have to sit play the waiting game..

[Gustywind]

Interresting info...
A WIND GUST OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...WAS REPORTED ON
ST. THOMAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

[SouthFloridawx]

Aric, look at the end of those runs. Such a sharp curve to the right is surely unrealistic.

[KWT]

Lol..this storm is too much!

Fay was a lot worse

It was, but this storm is pulling out all the stops to be a freak like that storm, I mean its gone from racing to a dead standstill, relocating itself southwards several times, etc and its only being a TS for about 18hrs!

[SouthDadeFish]

To be honest so much of the five-day forecast depends on how Emily interacts with Hispaniola and in what shape she emerges from that landfall. She could easily die from that trek as suggested by some of the global models. Very complicated forecast.

[Gustywind]

[Tropics Guy]

Looking at the Visible Satellite pics, IMO I doubt that she is truly stationary, as the whole system still appears to be moving generally westward, think its more of a center reformation/reorganization.

TG

[KWT]

Hmmm its pretty rare for it to bend that far east at this time of year, even Charley which had a mega deep trough only went off to the NE...

I think the models are probably overdoing the strength and also depth of the upper trough.

[chris_fit]

I wonder what the chances are of Emily pulling a Jeanne