ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[jlauderdal]

From Joe Bastardi Twitter:

BigJoeBastardiJoe Bastardi

Emily starting to intensify. pressure is falling in storm.. awaiting next recon

21 minutes ago

he is consistently optimistic in terms of developement of tropical systems

[HurricaneWarning92]

Wow i really hope future systems dont struggle as much as this one. At first we can say it was rather interesting but now it just irritates you and gives you a head ache.

[AdamFirst]

From Joe Bastardi Twitter:

BigJoeBastardiJoe Bastardi

Emily starting to intensify. pressure is falling in storm.. awaiting next recon

21 minutes ago

he is consistently optimistic in terms of developement of tropical systems

"Optimistic" is an understatement...sheesh

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Good question sunny?

[Airboy]

Looking at the last couple of visible sat pictures i get the impression that the rotation is getting a bit better (improved W winds) on the south part of the storm.

[KWT]

last two fixes show 265 or so motion ..

You can't count that first fix as the plane clearly missed the center.

but its extrapolated.. VDM came out for it.

Yeah, but quite clearly that weren't the center, you can tell just by looking at the wind direction reported at the time and the fact pressure was higher then the *true* second pass...

I would not be surprised if Emily becomes a hurricane as its being swept out to sea, should be good forcing and struggling systems tend to find it easy getting thier act on when they go NE I've found.

[Evil Jeremy]

Aric, how has the NAM's setup translated to other models of the same run so far? Has the NAM been a good preview so far?

[maxx9512]

Local TV met just mentioned Fl. not out of the woods and tonights models might show a shift back
to the west. Seeing what has gone on today this COULD be correct. Is he right or will the models stick to their
eastward trend? I don't see how they can, but I'm not a pro. I guess it's just a wait and see.

[KWT]

Doesn't give confidence when the NAM takes this pretty much NW into W.PR...which is pretty unlikely at this stage!

[Aric Dunn]

well theya re not going to released VDM's if they were not sure.. extrapolated pressure and center is done quite often.

[jlauderdal]

Wow i really hope future systems dont struggle as much as this one. At first we can say it was rather interesting but now it just irritates you and gives you a head ache.

would you rather have clean systems heading towards west broward?

[Aric Dunn]

Doesn't give confidence when the NAM takes this pretty much NW into W.PR...which is pretty unlikely at this stage!

but again this run the ridging has increased off the SE coast.

check 54 hours out... see the ridging .. quite pronounced.. dont care what NAM does with the storm.. look at the synoptics..

[ConvergenceZone]

Let's face it, the conditions out in the Atlantic/Carib are just horrible for anything to get going at this time. So it's the same old story.
I think in the next 2 to 3 weeks the tropics will get rockin as the conditions vastly improve....

[Cainer]

In the event Emily does not attain hurricane status, that would make 5/5 named systems to start the season ... all w/o reaching hurricane strength. Does anyone know if that has happened before to start an Atlantic tropical season? Just wondering.

Happened in 2002 - first 6 named storms failed to become hurricanes.

[KWT]

well theya re not going to released VDM's if they were not sure.. extrapolated pressure and center is done quite often.

Well fair enough but I think as Wxman57 said the center was not where the VDM message was, you can tell by the wind motion and the pressure...

[mf_dolphin]

If it does here's a good pretty topo map of Hispaniola.



Fairly high mountains to welcome her on the current NHC track

[Kory]

Well I am new to the forum here. After looking at hurricane hunters and at satelitte, it looks like it maybe starting to move slightly north of west. Also, I think the East Coast of Florida all the way to North Carolina needs to watch this, but don't expect a big swing with the track.

[SouthFLTropics]

Um, is that 54 hour image of the NAM showing two storms???

SFT

[Ivanhater]

Let's face it, the conditions out in the Atlantic/Carib are just horrible for anything to get going at this time. So it's the same old story.
I think in the next 2 to 3 weeks the tropics will get rockin as the conditions vastly improve....

Please know what you are talking about before you post. What are the "horrible" conditions in the Caribbean right now. Conditions are actually really good and that is why this could be a hurricane. The issue has to do with the inner dynamics within the storm not allowing a solid center.

[Gustywind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/1745 UTC 15.4N 64.2W T3.0/3.0 EMILY