ATL: EMILY - Remnants
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still recurves it.. but its another shift west..
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
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I am just an amateur and a "noob" at that so any speculations that I have made are just that, uneducated speculations. Please refer to the NHC for accurate information.
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ

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hopefully its not a strong hurricane by 96 hours.. because from then till 120 hours maybe a little more its just sitting over the northern bahamas..
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models
So the 00Z GFS poops to the west just a little bit. What do you think the new GFDL and HWRF will do? They should update in about 1 hour?
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recon on its way now we can see whats really going on
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I am just an amateur and a "noob" at that so any speculations that I have made are just that, uneducated speculations. Please refer to the NHC for accurate information.
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ

- AdamFirst
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It's time for Late Night at the Recon...kick back and crunch those numbers folks.
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000
URNT15 KNHC 030420
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 02 20110803
041000 1741N 06500W 8420 01603 0120 +178 +103 115032 032 /// /// 03
041030 1741N 06502W 8427 01592 0120 +180 +102 116032 032 /// /// 03
041100 1741N 06504W 8426 01597 0121 +177 +101 116033 033 /// /// 03
041130 1741N 06506W 8429 01595 0121 +175 +100 116033 033 /// /// 03
041200 1741N 06508W 8429 01594 0122 +175 +099 116033 033 /// /// 03
041230 1742N 06510W 8425 01596 0123 +175 +098 116033 034 /// /// 03
041300 1742N 06512W 8428 01594 0124 +175 +097 115033 034 /// /// 03
041330 1742N 06514W 8427 01596 0124 +175 +097 117034 034 /// /// 03
041400 1742N 06516W 8428 01594 0124 +175 +096 118034 034 /// /// 03
041430 1742N 06518W 8425 01596 0124 +175 +096 119034 034 /// /// 03
041500 1742N 06520W 8433 01590 0125 +175 +095 119034 034 /// /// 03
041530 1742N 06522W 8426 01592 0124 +172 +095 119033 034 /// /// 03
041600 1742N 06524W 8432 01587 0121 +171 +094 118033 034 /// /// 03
041630 1742N 06526W 8426 01589 0121 +170 +094 118032 032 /// /// 03
041700 1742N 06528W 8432 01585 0121 +171 +094 121032 032 /// /// 03
041730 1742N 06530W 8430 01588 0121 +170 +094 122031 031 /// /// 03
041800 1742N 06532W 8425 01595 0123 +170 +093 123031 031 /// /// 03
041830 1742N 06534W 8429 01589 0122 +170 +093 123031 032 /// /// 03
041900 1743N 06536W 8428 01589 0122 +170 +092 125032 032 /// /// 03
041930 1743N 06538W 8429 01589 0122 +169 +092 125033 033 /// /// 03
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 030420
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 02 20110803
041000 1741N 06500W 8420 01603 0120 +178 +103 115032 032 /// /// 03
041030 1741N 06502W 8427 01592 0120 +180 +102 116032 032 /// /// 03
041100 1741N 06504W 8426 01597 0121 +177 +101 116033 033 /// /// 03
041130 1741N 06506W 8429 01595 0121 +175 +100 116033 033 /// /// 03
041200 1741N 06508W 8429 01594 0122 +175 +099 116033 033 /// /// 03
041230 1742N 06510W 8425 01596 0123 +175 +098 116033 034 /// /// 03
041300 1742N 06512W 8428 01594 0124 +175 +097 115033 034 /// /// 03
041330 1742N 06514W 8427 01596 0124 +175 +097 117034 034 /// /// 03
041400 1742N 06516W 8428 01594 0124 +175 +096 118034 034 /// /// 03
041430 1742N 06518W 8425 01596 0124 +175 +096 119034 034 /// /// 03
041500 1742N 06520W 8433 01590 0125 +175 +095 119034 034 /// /// 03
041530 1742N 06522W 8426 01592 0124 +172 +095 119033 034 /// /// 03
041600 1742N 06524W 8432 01587 0121 +171 +094 118033 034 /// /// 03
041630 1742N 06526W 8426 01589 0121 +170 +094 118032 032 /// /// 03
041700 1742N 06528W 8432 01585 0121 +171 +094 121032 032 /// /// 03
041730 1742N 06530W 8430 01588 0121 +170 +094 122031 031 /// /// 03
041800 1742N 06532W 8425 01595 0123 +170 +093 123031 031 /// /// 03
041830 1742N 06534W 8429 01589 0122 +170 +093 123031 032 /// /// 03
041900 1743N 06536W 8428 01589 0122 +170 +092 125032 032 /// /// 03
041930 1743N 06538W 8429 01589 0122 +169 +092 125033 033 /// /// 03
$$
;
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I am just an amateur and a "noob" at that so any speculations that I have made are just that, uneducated speculations. Please refer to the NHC for accurate information.
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ

- SouthDadeFish
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Bruton wrote:This storm is like Ernesto.
actually it's worse. ernesto made it briefly to cane status. so far this has been a convective mass with a transient surface circulation. if it has trouble maintaining a surface circulation in the open sea how is it supposed to traverse hispaniola? to me the florida/bahamas talk, interesting as it may be, could well be all for not...there may not be a trackable entity after this mass gets tangled up on that land mass.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
psyclone wrote:Bruton wrote:This storm is like Ernesto.
actually it's worse. ernesto made it briefly to cane status. so far this has been a convective mass with a transient surface circulation. if it has trouble maintaining a surface circulation in the open sea how is it supposed to traverse hispaniola? to me the florida/bahamas talk, interesting as it may be, could well be all for not...there may not be a trackable entity after this mass gets tangled up on that land mass.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
funny that ernesto had somewhat of a similar track
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000
URNT15 KNHC 030430
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 03 20110803
042000 1743N 06540W 8428 01589 0121 +165 +092 124034 034 /// /// 03
042030 1743N 06542W 8430 01585 0122 +165 +092 121034 034 /// /// 03
042100 1743N 06544W 8427 01589 0124 +165 +091 120033 034 /// /// 03
042130 1743N 06546W 8428 01588 0124 +165 +091 118034 035 /// /// 03
042200 1743N 06548W 8429 01588 0124 +165 +091 118034 035 /// /// 03
042230 1743N 06550W 8428 01588 0124 +164 +090 119035 035 027 001 03
042300 1743N 06552W 8427 01588 0123 +163 +090 118035 036 027 001 00
042330 1743N 06554W 8429 01587 0125 +161 +089 117035 037 027 001 03
042400 1743N 06555W 8420 01598 0127 +163 +089 121033 034 022 000 03
042430 1742N 06557W 8429 01587 0125 +162 +089 123033 034 026 000 00
042500 1740N 06558W 8429 01586 0126 +160 +088 123035 035 025 000 00
042530 1739N 06559W 8426 01592 0127 +160 +088 122034 036 026 000 00
042600 1738N 06600W 8427 01590 0127 +160 +088 124033 033 026 000 00
042630 1737N 06602W 8425 01590 0126 +160 +088 122033 033 027 001 00
042700 1736N 06603W 8429 01586 0124 +160 +088 131035 036 028 000 00
042730 1735N 06604W 8428 01588 0125 +160 +088 129035 036 029 000 00
042800 1733N 06605W 8428 01587 0124 +160 +088 127038 039 028 000 00
042830 1732N 06607W 8428 01585 0124 +160 +088 127038 038 028 000 00
042900 1731N 06608W 8425 01587 0124 +159 +088 127037 038 028 001 00
042930 1730N 06609W 8429 01583 0123 +160 +089 129036 038 028 001 00
$$
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URNT15 KNHC 030430
AF306 0705A EMILY HDOB 03 20110803
042000 1743N 06540W 8428 01589 0121 +165 +092 124034 034 /// /// 03
042030 1743N 06542W 8430 01585 0122 +165 +092 121034 034 /// /// 03
042100 1743N 06544W 8427 01589 0124 +165 +091 120033 034 /// /// 03
042130 1743N 06546W 8428 01588 0124 +165 +091 118034 035 /// /// 03
042200 1743N 06548W 8429 01588 0124 +165 +091 118034 035 /// /// 03
042230 1743N 06550W 8428 01588 0124 +164 +090 119035 035 027 001 03
042300 1743N 06552W 8427 01588 0123 +163 +090 118035 036 027 001 00
042330 1743N 06554W 8429 01587 0125 +161 +089 117035 037 027 001 03
042400 1743N 06555W 8420 01598 0127 +163 +089 121033 034 022 000 03
042430 1742N 06557W 8429 01587 0125 +162 +089 123033 034 026 000 00
042500 1740N 06558W 8429 01586 0126 +160 +088 123035 035 025 000 00
042530 1739N 06559W 8426 01592 0127 +160 +088 122034 036 026 000 00
042600 1738N 06600W 8427 01590 0127 +160 +088 124033 033 026 000 00
042630 1737N 06602W 8425 01590 0126 +160 +088 122033 033 027 001 00
042700 1736N 06603W 8429 01586 0124 +160 +088 131035 036 028 000 00
042730 1735N 06604W 8428 01588 0125 +160 +088 129035 036 029 000 00
042800 1733N 06605W 8428 01587 0124 +160 +088 127038 039 028 000 00
042830 1732N 06607W 8428 01585 0124 +160 +088 127038 038 028 000 00
042900 1731N 06608W 8425 01587 0124 +159 +088 127037 038 028 001 00
042930 1730N 06609W 8429 01583 0123 +160 +089 129036 038 028 001 00
$$
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models
WeatherEmperor wrote:So the 00Z GFS poops to the west just a little bit. What do you think the new GFDL and HWRF will do? They should update in about 1 hour?
HWRF usually at about 1230-1245am CDT
GFDL 1240-1250
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I am just an amateur and a "noob" at that so any speculations that I have made are just that, uneducated speculations. Please refer to the NHC for accurate information.
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ
Thank you all for your thoughts, I've loved reading through this community since '06 and finally decided to post more actively.
-JJ

Re:
SouthDadeFish wrote:Looks like they are flying to cross the center NW to SE
Is not going to give us much clue going in from the NW quadrant if we still have a closed circulation, which I believe we still have.
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- Dave
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000
UZNT13 KNHC 030428
XXAA 53048 99177 70653 04375 99011 28645 13023 00095 27642 12523
92782 22638 12530 85516 18458 12034 88999 77999
31313 09608 80414
61616 AF306 0705A EMILY OB 01
62626 SPL 1771N06533W 0416 MBL WND 12523 AEV 20802 DLM WND 12029
010843 WL150 12523 083 REL 1770N06532W 041444 SPG 1770N06533W 041
626 =
XXBB 53048 99177 70653 04375 00011 28645 11941 22813 22906 23060
33850 18458 44843 17458
21212 00011 13023 11963 12523 22953 12527 33941 11524 44909 12540
55883 11532 66858 11533 77843 12034
31313 09608 80414
61616 AF306 0705A EMILY OB 01
62626 SPL 1771N06533W 0416 MBL WND 12523 AEV 20802 DLM WND 12029
010843 WL150 12523 083 REL 1770N06532W 041444 SPG 1770N06533W 041
626 =
;
UZNT13 KNHC 030428
XXAA 53048 99177 70653 04375 99011 28645 13023 00095 27642 12523
92782 22638 12530 85516 18458 12034 88999 77999
31313 09608 80414
61616 AF306 0705A EMILY OB 01
62626 SPL 1771N06533W 0416 MBL WND 12523 AEV 20802 DLM WND 12029
010843 WL150 12523 083 REL 1770N06532W 041444 SPG 1770N06533W 041
626 =
XXBB 53048 99177 70653 04375 00011 28645 11941 22813 22906 23060
33850 18458 44843 17458
21212 00011 13023 11963 12523 22953 12527 33941 11524 44909 12540
55883 11532 66858 11533 77843 12034
31313 09608 80414
61616 AF306 0705A EMILY OB 01
62626 SPL 1771N06533W 0416 MBL WND 12523 AEV 20802 DLM WND 12029
010843 WL150 12523 083 REL 1770N06532W 041444 SPG 1770N06533W 041
626 =
;
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- Dave
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DECODED DROPSONDE 01
Code: Select all
Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 04:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 05
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 01
Part A...
Date: Near the closest hour of 4Z on the 3rd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 17.7N 65.3W
Location: 70 miles (113 km) to the SE (135°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Marsden Square: 043 (About)
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1011mb (29.85 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 28.6°C (83.5°F) 24.1°C (75.4°F) 130° (from the SE) 23 knots (26 mph)
1000mb 95m (312 ft) 27.6°C (81.7°F) 23.4°C (74.1°F) 125° (from the SE) 23 knots (26 mph)
925mb 782m (2,566 ft) 22.6°C (72.7°F) 18.8°C (65.8°F) 125° (from the SE) 30 knots (35 mph)
850mb 1,516m (4,974 ft) 18.4°C (65.1°F) Approximately 10°C (50°F) 120° (from the ESE) 34 knots (39 mph)
Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 4:14Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.
Remarks Section...
Splash Location: 17.71N 65.33W
Splash Time: 4:16Z
Release Location: 17.7N 65.32W View map)
Release Time: 4:14:44Z
Splash Location: 17.7N 65.33W (
Splash Time: 4:16:26Z
Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 125° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 23 knots (26 mph)
Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 120° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 29 knots (33 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 1010mb
Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 125° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 23 knots (26 mph)
Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802
Part B: Data For Significant Levels...
Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1011mb (Surface) 28.6°C (83.5°F) 24.1°C (75.4°F)
941mb 22.8°C (73.0°F) 21.5°C (70.7°F)
906mb 23.0°C (73.4°F) Approximately 13°C (55°F)
850mb 18.4°C (65.1°F) Approximately 10°C (50°F)
843mb 17.4°C (63.3°F) Approximately 9°C (48°F)
Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1011mb (Surface) 130° (from the SE) 23 knots (26 mph)
963mb 125° (from the SE) 23 knots (26 mph)
953mb 125° (from the SE) 27 knots (31 mph)
941mb 115° (from the ESE) 24 knots (28 mph)
909mb 125° (from the SE) 40 knots (46 mph)
883mb 115° (from the ESE) 32 knots (37 mph)
858mb 115° (from the ESE) 33 knots (38 mph)
843mb 120° (from the ESE) 34 knots (39 mph)
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
To the posters asking about the steering of a less-developed system, generally yes, the lower-level flow is going to have more influence than with a stacked, strong system, which is influenced more by the mean flow through a deeper section of the atmosphere. If you look at CIMMS, they show shallow and deeper steering currents, with the shallower low-level flow -- 700mb to 850mb -- influencing tropical waves and less-developed systems. The more intense the system, the more you start looking at flow from higher levels.
See steering currents here: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time=
See steering currents here: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time=
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Re:
NDG wrote:SouthDadeFish wrote:Looks like they are flying to cross the center NW to SE
Is not going to give us much clue going in from the NW quadrant if we still have a closed circulation, which I believe we still have.
Never mind, is heading now SW towards the estimated position by the NHC.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models
Noticed that as well with gfs slowing to a crawl in the Bahamas area. That's a notorious area for stalling and loops and such. In any case, don't buy nam as it's tracks generally suck, interesting that it builds the ridge back stronger. Would def make a closer call fir fl/carolinas. Also noticed both models seem to weaken the death ridge over ne Tx/Ark.. Or at least shift the axis west with time. Not sure it has any bearing hear other than it seems to be the broad troughiness over the ohio/ms valley areas that seems to but up against it. The western extent of the atlantic ridge will be key. Don't see the trough itself digging that far south this time of year....but it will create a weakness. These subtle nuances really can make 100s of miles of difference 5-6 days out so unfortunately still a waiting game. Should have a better handle on the Atlantic ridge though by say Thursday or Friday.
Edit: just looked at day 7 on gfs and the trough does eventually get fairly south. Like I said though, not sure I buy it this time of year.
Edit: just looked at day 7 on gfs and the trough does eventually get fairly south. Like I said though, not sure I buy it this time of year.
Last edited by PTPatrick on Tue Aug 02, 2011 11:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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