
WTPN31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (MERBOK) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 30.3N 153.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.3N 153.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 32.0N 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 33.7N 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 35.6N 157.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 38.2N 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 44.3N 165.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 53.4N 172.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 30.7N 154.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST EAST OF NORTHWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TY 12W HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG
ITS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES AS IT BEGAN TO ROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 061618Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A
NOTCH OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
77 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 12W LIES NORTHEAST OF
A CYCLONE AND NORTHWEST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TY 12W HAS MAINTAINED GOOD POLEWARD AND EASTWARD
OUTFLOW. TY MERBOK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RECURVING AROUND THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE DURING
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN HIGH, UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS
FAVORABLE, AND VWS REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS SST'S DECREASE AND VWS INCREASES WITH THE
ONSET OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 72, TY 12W IS EXPECTED
TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AND COMPLETE ET BY TAU 96.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH ONE MINOR
DEVIATION - GFS ABRUPTLY DEFLECTS THE VORTEX 30 DEGREES LEFT OF THE
ENVELOPE AT TAU 72. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS DIRECTLY OVER BUT FASTER
THAN CONSENSUS AND THEN SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFS'S
UNLIKELY DEVIATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS
27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (MUIFA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
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