WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

[supercane]

KMA keeps this as a typhoon:

WTKO20 RKSL 071800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 49
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 071800UTC 35.8N 123.6E
MOVEMENT NNW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 66KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 080600UTC 38.4N 123.0E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 60KT
24HR
POSITION 081800UTC 41.4N 124.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 090600UTC 43.5N 127.1E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 091800UTC 45.1N 130.4E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 43KT
72HR
POSITION 101800UTC 46.3N 135.4E WITHIN 0NM
PRES 998HPA
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

[supercane]

WTPN32 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 054
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 36.0N 123.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.0N 123.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 38.7N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 41.1N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 43.3N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 44.5N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 36.7N 123.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM WEST
OF KUNSAN AIR BASE, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION CONTAINED WITHIN A RAINBAND OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA. A
07/1802Z 89 GHZ AMRE-E IMAGE SHOWS THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC, WHICH
COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE YELLOW SEA, AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON ANIMATED IR AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS DUE TO IT BEING BASED ON THE
MODEL EXPECTED T-NUMBER (MET). THE DATA T-NUMBER (DT) INDICATES
SURFACE WINDS OF 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE CLOSEST DEEP CENTRALIZED
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 15 NM FROM THE LLCC.
THEREFORE, DUE TO THE LARGE EXTENT AND ROBUST NATURE OF THE LLCC,
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KNOTS. RECENT UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS AN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THAT TS 11W CONTINUES
TO BE IN A WEAK (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT
WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS FARTHER TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD.
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS VERY HEALTHY INTO TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THERE CONTINUES TO BE
POLEWARD VENTING FROM A CONNECTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES. TS 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN HONSHU. BY TAU 24 THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL HAVE BROKEN DOWN THE STEERING STR AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ITS
NORTHEASTWARD TURN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH WBAR AND
GFDN INDICATING A MORE SOUTHEASTERN LANDFALL NEAR THE EASTERN NORTH
KOREAN BOARDER. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A MORE NORTHEASTERN TRACK WHICH
IS SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF, AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS, DUE TO KNOWN MODELS
ERRORS IN THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z
IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 12W (MERBOK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 37.3N 123.7E GOOD
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 270NM EAST 160NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 090000UTC 42.7N 124.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 100000UTC 45.8N 129.9E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

WTPN32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 055
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 37.5N 123.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.5N 123.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 40.1N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 42.5N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 44.1N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 38.1N 124.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KUNSAN AIR BASE, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 12W (MERBOK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

WDPN32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (MUIFA)
WARNING NR 55//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KUNSAN AIR BASE, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION FLARING OVER
THE LLCC. A 07/2253Z 91H GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS EXTREMELY FRAGMENTED
SHALLOW CONVECTION WITHIN THE INNER CURVILINEAR RAINBANDS AND A MORE
VIGOROUS RAINBAND WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS HIGHER THAN REPORTING
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30-45 KNOTS DUE TO KNOWN
INTENSITY ERRORS WITH SYSTEMS THAT DISPLAY THESE CHARACTERISTICS.
THE LLCC CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE YELLOW SEA AND MAINTAINS
ITS HEALTHY STRUCTURE EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A LACK OF CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW TS 11W
IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW INTACT INTO
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUED
POLEWARD VENTING FROM A CONNECTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES. TS 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN HONSHU.
3. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. BY TAU 12 THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL HAVE
BROKEN DOWN THE STEERING STR AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ITS
NORTHEASTWARD TURN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA
BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TWO OUTLIERS, WBAR AND GFDN, WHICH TAKE THE SYSTEM
FURTHER EAST OF CONSENSUS AND BACK OVER THE WATERS OF THE SEA OF
JAPAN. THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AS TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION
WILL DISSIPATE THE LLCC. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN
CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR KNOWN MODEL ERRORS.
//
NNNN

TPPN11 PGTW 080030
A. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MUIFA)
B. 07/2330Z
C. 37.1N
D. 124.0E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 32A/PBO CDO/ANMTN. OW EMBEDDED CENTER EXTENDS 80NM
FROM THE WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. DT
YIELDS A 3.5. MET YIELDS A 3.0. PT AGREES. DBO MET.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LANZETTA

[RobWESTPACWX]

And good riddance!!!!!

[euro6208]

probrably one of the strongest tropical cyclones in the world but without recon, muifa is just another powerful storm in the west pacific's uncomplete typhoon record. bye bye muifa...

[supercane]

JMA issues its last advisory on Muifa:

WTPQ21 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 44N 126E
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 996HPA =

[StormingB81]

Typhoon Muifa is now off the NRL site. A storm that I do not think I will ever forgot. Definatly not the strongest storm I have been in but a marathon one it was..I probably will never be in a storm that long ever again.. Though a lot of damage has been done and a clean up that will take some time. especially 41 inches of rain..I think Ican honostly say I don't think I will ever see 41 inches in 48 hours again!

[HURAKAN]

How long was Okinawa under tropical storm force winds? Seemed like forever!

[StormingB81]

It is kind of hard to guage. Becuase if just one base feels the effects the TCCOR Changes..We went into TCCOR 1 caution (winds sustained OR GUSTING over 40 mph) at 1pm on Thursday and didn'tgo into recovery (all bases winds below 58 mph) until 1214 on Saturday Afternoon...But winds where still bllowing so it was defintly over 48 hours.

[phwxenthusiast]

unfortunately, it also killed 4 people in South Korea..:ohno:

[Chacor]

http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2011/201108/ ... 934ee.html

10 dead in North Korea.

[artist]

http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2011/201108/news09/2011080934ee.html

10 dead in North Korea.

I am so sorry to hear that. Thanks for all the info you have posted Chacor.

[underthwx]

what a storm, but I admire yall more who experienced the storm. hope all is well and everyone is safe.