ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

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ROCK
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#441 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 13, 2011 2:08 am

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP216.gif


Yucatan....seems like its slowing down....same position it was at last nights 0z....
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#442 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Aug 13, 2011 2:45 am

Even if it goes down to 0% it doesn't mean this wont become anything. Those percentages are only for 48 hours out. If could develop once it gets further into the Caribbean and that is definitely further than 48 hours out.
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#443 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 13, 2011 3:47 am

What about that ridge over Texas?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#444 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 13, 2011 6:49 am

10%

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ONLY
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN A FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
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#445 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 13, 2011 6:55 am

Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
:rarrow: http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

Aug 13, 2011 4:43 am ET

ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN

* A broad area of low pressure about 650 miles west-southwest of the southern Cape Verde Islands has only a few showers with it, and continues to be poorly organized.

* There is potential for gradual development over the weekend and into early next week with this system.
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#446 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 13, 2011 7:03 am

Tropical Atlantic: Some New Twists, New Concerns

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Aug 13, 2011; 5:30 AM ET

The first three systems we discussed are essentially "round and out" features for North America in that they will re-curve or have already started to do so. However, with the last feature on the list we have a quandary.

:rarrow: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... ccuweather

This little bugger has been organizing significantly farther south than the first Cape Verde wave and is tracking westward, rather than west-northwestward.

As a result there is a big question now as to whether this system will continue to move westward and get into the Caribbean, or steer on the northern side of the Antilles like the first.

Despite fighting dry air at this time, AccuWeather.com meteorologists feel this feature poses the greatest risk of becoming a strong system that could have significant negative impacts to lives and property.

The first area of concern would be the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday into Wednesday, followed by the Greater Antilles spanning Wednesday into Friday.

We will stop the speculation at this point, as from here the possibilities of future track with this disturbance are endless, ranging from the system trying to get into the Gulf of Mexico to perhaps getting too close for comfort along the Atlantic Seaboard next weekend and beyond.
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#447 Postby painkillerr » Sat Aug 13, 2011 7:07 am

Mid August + Four systems in the Atlantic = nothing develops! This sucks!
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#448 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 13, 2011 7:08 am

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#449 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 13, 2011 7:09 am

6Z GFS serious flood threat for the SE....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif
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#450 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 13, 2011 7:11 am

6Z H+300 Conitues a major flood threat across GA....sure fantasy land right now but if it verified that would be flooding of epic poportions across the SE,,,


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_300l.gif
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#451 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 13, 2011 7:12 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC OVER THE E ATLANTIC ABOUT
650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT
12N34W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO 17N36W. ONLY
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT
13-18 KT.


$$
FORMOSA
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#452 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 13, 2011 7:13 am

Does 06z GFS hit SFL from the S or from the E?
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#453 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 13, 2011 7:17 am

better look on hit on FL :uarrow: from the SSW as it rounds western cuba BA


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal252.gif
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#454 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 13, 2011 7:19 am

rides the west coast of FL before turning NE in GA....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal276.gif
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#455 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 13, 2011 7:20 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#456 Postby Kory » Sat Aug 13, 2011 7:22 am

The New Orleans National Weather Service mentioned 93L in their long term discussion. Here is a piece of it:

AS WE APPROACH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AS THE
BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST INTO THE SE CONUS. THE
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ROUGHLY ALONG 35W
WILL HAVE TRAVERSED THE ATLANTIC AND MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BE A SYSTEM THAT SHOULD CATCH A GOOD
BIT OF ATTENTION OVER THIS NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
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#457 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 13, 2011 7:26 am

6Z Nogaps looks PR bound then likely a FL strike...


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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#458 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 13, 2011 7:30 am

slow developer likely but those are the ones to pay close attention too...Once it pases 50w I expect her organization to increase and the pattern and forecasted synptics long term bode well for a landfall across potions of the carribean than somewhere between the gulf coast and carolinas IMO...
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#459 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 13, 2011 7:34 am

could get deactivated today but shell be back in a few days...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#460 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Aug 13, 2011 7:34 am

Anywhere from Mexico to Virginia imo. :lol:

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