ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

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Macrocane
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Models

#641 Postby Macrocane » Sun Aug 14, 2011 12:51 pm

I was going to say that, Are you being sarcastic Rock? :wink: Or am I missing something?
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#642 Postby Kory » Sun Aug 14, 2011 12:54 pm

BigB0882 wrote:I don't see much on those maps. Is it at the very bottom of the BOC? Doesn't look like much to me and the moisture it brings, which is better than nothing, looks minimal and I seriously doubt would be so wide spread.

Yes the map shows an open wave in the Bay of Campeche...nothing to get too excited about. May bring a little more moisture to Texas.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Models

#643 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:00 pm

Macrocane wrote:I was going to say that, Are you being sarcastic Rock? :wink: Or am I missing something?


He was sarcastic. :)
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Models

#644 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:05 pm

Macrocane wrote:I was going to say that, Are you being sarcastic Rock? :wink: Or am I missing something?



sarcastic... this site was jacked... showing both yesterdays and todays run... :D

TW in the BOC is the right call
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Models

#645 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:11 pm

12Z NOGAPS looks like a good call and follows the GFS....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Models

#646 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:22 pm

12Z GFDL for 92L slams 93L into CA.....never really closes it off....

about time for me to mossy on over to the TT forum and the global discussion thread.... :D
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#647 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:32 pm

12zUKEMT develops 93L once it crosses 75W on Thursday and by day 6 Saturday (Aug 20) its east of the Yucatan.

Image
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#648 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:56 pm

In my Opinion, 93L is going to try to develop when it reaches 75W on Thursday as the 12zUKMET is suggesting and as far as track I think the GFS&ECMWF are too far south. My thinking is that this morning UKMET run is very believable in showing a closed low east of the Yucatan Peninsula this coming Saturday.
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Re: ATL : Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

#649 Postby Nimbus » Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:02 pm

looks real dry in the eastern Caribbean on the water vapor imagery loop. They moved the mid level moisture map so I don't know if things are any better closer to the surface. Once 93L enters the Caribbean there will probably be the usual shear to deal with as well. Over near Jamaica conditions could improve but by then the "death ridge" over Texas would probably keep it on a western track into Mexico.
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#650 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:10 pm

Maybe a Matthew '10 like system, both track and intensity wise? Remember how he was predicted to become a cane, but struggled and "only" intensified to 60 mph.
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#651 Postby northtxboy » Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:45 pm

I still think we are looking at a U.S lanfall with this system. Just my thoughts doesnt mean it will hapeen but there is a good chance for it.
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#652 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:50 pm

93L beginning its approach... not so far from the east Carib islands.
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Re: ATL : Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

#653 Postby Portastorm » Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:56 pm

Surprisingly, there's still a fair amount of vorticity to it based on this satellite image.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-avn.html
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Re: ATL : Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

#654 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:05 pm

Portastorm wrote:Surprisingly, there's still a fair amount of vorticity to it based on this satellite image.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-avn.html


If that trend continues,we may see 93L reactivated fairly soon.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Models

#655 Postby Duddy » Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:11 pm

What does CA mean? Everytime I see it I'm thinking you guys are saying it's crossing Mexico and slamming in California.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Models

#656 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:12 pm

Duddy wrote:What does CA mean? Everytime I see it I'm thinking you guys are saying it's crossing Mexico and slamming in California.


CA means Central America.
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Models

#657 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:13 pm

Duddy wrote:What does CA mean? Everytime I see it I'm thinking you guys are saying it's crossing Mexico and slamming in California.


central america
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Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Models

#658 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:20 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

NAM- 84hr

still does not bite on the CA theory....the EURO still seems bent on sending this into CA...looking more and more likely unless this developes quickly...
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Re: ATL : Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

#659 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:24 pm

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

still some kick in this mule...maybe but it did this yesterday...also...
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#660 Postby lonelymike » Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:43 pm

northtxboy wrote:I still think we are looking at a U.S lanfall with this system. Just my thoughts doesnt mean it will hapeen but there is a good chance for it.



Please dazzle with your meterological logic about why you think a US landfall is possible? :P
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