Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[Stormcenter]

No not in my opinion. No model has ever been that accurate. Let's be honest here
the GFS or any other model has a problem with run to run consistency. We are talking about
16 days here.

16 days out is pretty inaccurate or have there been runs that called strms that far out?

It's still crazy to see that run, and would mean MANY months of overtime and headaches.

[Ivanhater]

240 hours....Bahama Mama.



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[KWT]

Ouch thats VERY close call at 216hrs, the upper trough is starting to flatten a little, whilst the system is strengthening to counteract the weakening of the upper trough.

Probably going to move through the Bahamas as a strengthening hurricane on this run...

edit- explodes between 216-240hrs into a fully fledged hurricane...thats models that show condusive conditions for strengthening around that time...

[Big O]

240 hours....Bahama Mama.

http://img535.imageshack.us/img535/6087/12zeurotropical850mbvor.gif

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What is that area of low pressure in the southwestern GOM? It also appeared at the end of the 0z run of the European. With many touting 1999 as one of this year's analogs, perhaps we will see development like Bret in 1999, not in terms of intensity but rather in terms of location and perhaps track. We will see.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Brent]

240 hours....Bahama Mama.

http://img535.imageshack.us/img535/6087/12zeurotropical850mbvor.gif

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Well well, what a turn of events today

[ROCK]

model support seems overwhelming....but still days away from narrow down an area.

[KWT]

Yep the models are getting more agressive in terms of development down the road near the Caribbean, have to wait and see how it all progresses!

[Ivanhater]

HWRF on it....timing and consensus is amazing with this one. Biggest threat so far this season in my opinion.

[caneseddy]

I just noticed something interesting looking at this Euro map.

On Page 116 of the Global Model Runs Discussion thread, cycloneye posted an article from Crown Weather on July 25, 2011 which mentioned the CFS model (which gives guidance) showing three significant tropical cyclones at the same time across the basin on August 26, 2011 with one over Florida, the second one NE of the Leewards and the third one in the Atlantic heading towards the islands.

What I mean by this is that this EURO run shows a hurricane in the Bahamas on the 25th of August and the CFS model shows a Florida hit on the 26th.

If I'm not mistaken the CFS model pretty much nailed the pattern last season with the recurving storms and nailed Earl even before it began (per KWT)

*Cue Twilight Zone theme*

[srainhoutx]

Something tells me that massive Hudson Bay Low is just a tad over done on the 240 hour Euro...

[Ivanhater]

Something tells me that massive Hudson Bay Low is just a tad over done on the 240 hour Euro...

Ya think?

[cycloneye]

The one behind our pouch also looks very good.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Looks like there is not much dry air around it like a few weeks ago in this area...

[Ivanhater]

12z Ukie on it as well



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[Gustywind]

[quote="cycloneye"]The one behind our pouch also looks very good.

Absolulety Cycloneye, but after that the rule is for the "poof test"

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, This one looks to be a go!! Been awhile since we've seen a system with all of this model support. Perhaps this is it......

[KWT]

Consensus is pretty good for a developing system at some point in the next 4-6 days, also pretty good consensus for it to track W/WNW for at least a while and be a possible threat to the Caribbean.

I'd expect it to get an invest soon.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS ensembles really like this system in the central Gulf. Amazing signature for the ensemble!



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[KWT]

That IS an amazing signature Ivanhater, considering the lowe resolution of the ensdembles, to be showing a system with multiple closed isobars is amazing.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS ensembles really like this system in the central Gulf. Amazing signature for the ensemble!

http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/3214/12zgfsensemble500mbhght.gif

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What kind of track did it take to get there, Caribbean or near SFL?