Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

Website · #781 Postby **Brent** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:57 am

This would be an unimaginable disaster.

ROCK · #782 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:00 am

I think I see some 940MB in there which would equate to a Cat 3-4 ...major disaster right there.... :eek:

#783 Postby **sgastorm** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:02 am

This solution would require a big evacuation from Florida northward. It would probably bring considerable winds far inland from Florida and northward too. Looks like 240 hour ECMWF is not far from Savannah and Charleston.

#784 Postby **BigB0882** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:04 am

Yeah, that run, if it verified, would affect a very large area from FL into GA and into the Carolinas. Who knows where else it goes after that, it could scoot NNE and ride up the coast. Pretty much a worst case scenario as far as effecting a large area.

Kohlecane · #785 Postby **Kohlecane** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:05 am

sgastorm wrote:This solution would require a big evacuation from Florida northward. It would probably bring considerable winds far inland from Florida and northward too. Looks like 240 hour ECMWF is not far from Savannah and Charleston.

i hope it comes up this way ( when people are evacuated, i'm going to be at CofC That week

Hurricane Chaser

SouthFLTropics · #786 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:13 am

That track is very similar to Floyd in 99. Isn't 99 one of the analog years for this year. That would give the entire SE CONUS a scare and cause major evac headaches.

Sent from my DROID2 using Tapatalk

#787 Postby **somethingfunny** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:18 am

I'll tell you right now a vast majority from Key West on up to Myrtle Beach remember Floyd and will decide not to evacuate based on one bad experience.

Meso · #788 Postby **Meso** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:22 am

It's quite rare to see such agreement between models, especially on a storm that hasn't properly formed even.

The 00z CMC, GFS and EURO are almost all identify in their timing, strength and location, though consistency is the key.

It's definitely looking more and more like something big is going to develop and by the end of the weekend we should have a better idea on the situation. The waters around the Bahamas seem to be prime for strengthening, or at least that's what the models are seeing, they all seem to bomb the system in the 180-216 hour period.

Kohlecane · #789 Postby **Kohlecane** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:23 am

Meso wrote:It's quite rare to see such agreement between models, especially on a storm that hasn't properly formed even.

The 00z CMC, GFS and EURO are almost all identify in their timing, strength and location, though consistency is the key.

It's definitely looking more and more like something big is going to develop and by the end of the weekend we should have a better idea on the situation. The waters around the Bahamas seem to be prime for strengthening, or at least that's what the models are seeing, they all seem to bomb the system in the 180-216 hour period.

weatherguy2 · #790 Postby **weatherguy2** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:33 am

IF the 00z ECMWF came true, the last time a category 3 hurricane took a path like that was the morning of Aug. 25th 1885

Zoomed in 00z ECMWF:

Turtle · #791 Postby **Turtle** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:41 am

I've never tracked Hurricanes/Tropical Storms seriously, but is there a chance this event could shift 500+ miles West into Texas? This summer has been very event-less so I'm hoping for a change. :sun:

#792 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:33 am

Turtle wrote:I've never tracked Hurricanes/Tropical Storms seriously, but is there a chance this event could shift 500+ miles West into Texas? This summer has been very event-less so I'm hoping for a change.

I'm hoping with ya Turtle but it doesn't look very likely at this time. I'm worried for our friends east of us but it is still over a week away...

KWT · #793 Postby **KWT** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:01 am

weatherguy2, that is actually spot on the ECM track.

So the ECM continues to flip-flop vbetwewen an explosive system and nearly nothing...wonderful for confidence!

And WHERE is the invest!

#794 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:59 am

Gonna be a long 7-10 days....

Meso · #795 Postby **Meso** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:05 am

The 06z GFS is running late? Should have started 30 minutes ago, but nothing out yet.

But the 06z NAM has started showing P17 approaching PR as a 1008mb low in 84 hours!

EDIT: There it is, GFS run started coming through now 30 minutes later.

wzrgirl1 · #796 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:06 am

Without a doubt. This one has my attention.

#797 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:12 am

6Z GFS H+60 near 14/55...starting to organize...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal060.gif

#798 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:15 am

H+72 near Martinique..consistancy is outstanding!

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal072.gif

#799 Postby **Vortex** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:15 am

H+78 Ramp up begins over E.Caribbean...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal078.gif

#800 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:18 am

And WHERE is the invest!

Good question KWT. I think they are waiting for convection to be plenty to then put it up.

Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

Re:

Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

Re:

Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

Who is online