ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
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ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Behind 97L
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108182057
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2011, DB, O, 2011081818, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982011
AL, 98, 2011081818, , BEST, 0, 126N, 176W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108182057
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2011, DB, O, 2011081818, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982011
AL, 98, 2011081818, , BEST, 0, 126N, 176W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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#neversummer
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - DISCUSSION
oh hey another one..
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Lim_Fao on IRC.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- somethingfunny
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Dangit Brent, I wanted to make this thread!
I just posted this in the Talkin' Tropics Global Model Runs thread:
I just posted this in the Talkin' Tropics Global Model Runs thread:
I wrote:I'm not seeing any chatter about this. The models seem to be indicating not just Harvey (93L) and Irene (97L) soon, but also Jose and Katia. In fact, one or both of them could be classified before 97L if the 12z GFS is correct.
Neither one of them lasts long on the model run, but they're there nonetheless:
GFS
Euro
Another quickie surprise frontal development?
Wave exiting Africa
And look at how 97L has completely purged the Eastern Atlantic of dry air.
....
Never mind, I found the SAL.
Still a really nice looking wave with a good environment. I wonder why the models don't like it to be long-lived. The really potent Cape Verde storm the models show in about 96-120 hours is the wave behind this one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Oh so they invest this one right off the coast? I see how it is lol. 97L isnt seeing the love.
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- cycloneye
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ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 182103
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2103 UTC THU AUG 18 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982011) 20110818 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110818 1800 110819 0600 110819 1800 110820 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.6N 17.6W 12.9N 18.7W 13.5N 20.1W 14.3N 21.7W
BAMD 12.6N 17.6W 13.1N 18.7W 13.8N 19.8W 14.7N 20.8W
BAMM 12.6N 17.6W 13.2N 18.7W 14.0N 19.8W 14.9N 21.1W
LBAR 12.6N 17.6W 13.3N 19.6W 14.4N 21.8W 15.6N 23.7W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 49KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110820 1800 110821 1800 110822 1800 110823 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.2N 23.4W 16.7N 27.8W 18.1N 32.9W 19.5N 38.2W
BAMD 15.9N 22.1W 19.1N 26.2W 21.8N 31.1W 23.2N 35.1W
BAMM 16.1N 22.7W 18.4N 27.6W 20.3N 33.8W 22.1N 40.1W
LBAR 16.9N 25.8W 19.8N 29.9W 23.0N 34.2W 25.4N 38.1W
SHIP 55KTS 65KTS 61KTS 53KTS
DSHP 55KTS 65KTS 61KTS 53KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 17.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 12.1N LONM12 = 15.3W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 12.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Will have to see if any of that SAL gets ingested into the system....does look pretty good right now though.....MGC
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Looks like a fish candidate.
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- somethingfunny
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The global models have consistently developed it into a weak tropical storm and then dissipated it in a few days.
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- ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:Looks like a fish candidate.
agreed, which means that it will probably be a hurricane, lol...
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Probably will be a system at some point given there is weak support from the models, nothing too strong expected but the SAL is alot less impressive then it was for 97L, so not sure why the models are quite as weak as they are...
Should be a recurver unless it times itself perfectly with the strengthening of the Bermuda high...which isn't impossible...
Should be a recurver unless it times itself perfectly with the strengthening of the Bermuda high...which isn't impossible...
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Looks like it actually has some half decent rotation already. Well developed wave.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Introduced on the African Coast at 18z surface analysis.
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Uploaded by mageshack.us
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Not impossible this becomes a NS before 97L as well by the way!
That'd be pretty funny...
That'd be pretty funny...
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models
Maybe not a bonifide fish?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
20Z NRL VIS-IR/LOWCLOUD
Last edited by TheBurn on Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Hylian Auree
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Looks pretty impressive, would probably go ahead and give it a code orange.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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