ATL: IRENE - Models

[CourierPR]

This is the point when the trough is digging a little, looks to shallow to pull 97L N, if it misses 97L it will go west IMO.

At this point it's a crap shoot. If the ridge is overdone and the trough is stronger things could be different.

[ROCK]

looks like this may be a carribean runner throught the channel..Rock this may have your number on it....

I dont think so Vortex....I am smelling SW LA right now....could be way off with that....

[South Texas Storms]

MUCH further south on this run compared to the 18z. I would say maybe about 100 miles further south.

[Vortex]

H+108 furthest S yet, may miss the greater antilles....

[LaBreeze]

looks like this may be a carribean runner throught the channel..Rock this may have your number on it....

I dont think so Vortex....I am smelling SW LA right now....could be way off with that....

I hope that you are way off, Rock.

[South Texas Storms]

Hour 144 is just north of Jamaica.

[weatherguy2]

Not going to post it, but at 150 hr at the just off the south tip of Cuba. Looks Gulf bound for sure.

[Blown Away]

Not going to post it, but at 144 hr at the just off the south tip of Cuba.

Can you post the link for this run?

[northtxboy]

Not going to post it, but at 144 hr at the just off the south tip of Cuba.

post it!!!

[ROCK]

looks like this may be a carribean runner throught the channel..Rock this may have your number on it....

I dont think so Vortex....I am smelling SW LA right now....could be way off with that....

I hope that you are way off, Rock.

oops sorry....

carib cruiser this run....this breaks the string of 15 in a row I would say....

where is Portastorm? can you get my room ready?

[weatherguy2]

hr 156, about 80 miles off the SW coast of Cuba:

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmmm, maybe my first prediction of it landfalling in Mexico isn't so far off the mark....
or maybe I don't know what the heck I'm talking about, lol....

[South Texas Storms]

Not going to post it, but at 144 hr at the just off the south tip of Cuba.

Can you post the link for this run?

Loop of 0z GFS. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Vortex]

H156 S of central cuba and beginning to intensify....GOM bound...


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal156.gif

[PTrackerLA]

Much weaker this run too. I wonder how far north in the gulf it will make it.

[SouthFLTropics]

Wait for it...I think the turn is coming...Looks like a weakness getting ready to open in the ridge.

SFT

[ROCK]

hr 156, about 80 miles off the SW coast of Cuba:

will it make the connection and take the weakness over FL? big few hours coming up....

[ConvergenceZone]

Much weaker this run too. I wonder how far north in the gulf it will make it.

Yea, it's not bombing like it was earlier. I think we all figured the intensity would start coming down.

[weatherguy2]

Reminds me of Ivan at the NW tip of Cuba hr 180:

[SeminoleWind]

hr 156, about 80 miles off the SW coast of Cuba:

will it make the connection and take the weakness over FL? big few hours coming up....

hmm, gonna be a close one for sure