ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon Discussion

#701 Postby clfenwi » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:54 am

Dave wrote:Just a note, if 97L turns like the models are suggesting there will be mulitple flights daily & nightly into it so we will need you all to help out at various times. No one person can do it all...it takes all of us to cover these missions on a round the clock basis.


Yep, it's an on the fly team effort. One that has worked quite nicely over the years.
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#702 Postby Okibeach » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:56 am

Thoughts from Wilmington NC Discussion on East Coast threat.

"WORTH NOTING MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE AN IMPRESSIVE
TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE PERIOD. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THIS FORECAST...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT
LOCATION OF THE FEATURE AND ITS CONDITION THINK THE OCCASIONAL EAST
COAST SOLUTION SHOW BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT BELIEVABLE. FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN THE STORM WOULD NEED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS."

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... hlight=off
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#703 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:56 am

they took off

000
URNT15 KNHC 201653
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 01 20110820
164330 1742N 06448W 0130 ///// 0106 +309 +253 360000 000 /// /// 23
164400 1742N 06448W 0131 ///// 0106 +307 +251 360000 000 /// /// 23
164430 1742N 06448W 0130 ///// 0106 +310 +251 360000 000 /// /// 23
164500 1742N 06448W 0130 ///// 0105 +304 +250 360000 000 /// /// 23
164530 1742N 06448W 0129 ///// 0104 +301 +248 360000 000 /// /// 23
164600 1742N 06448W 0129 ///// 0103 +305 +247 360000 000 /// /// 23
164630 1742N 06448W 0129 ///// 0104 +302 +246 360000 000 /// /// 23
164700 1742N 06448W 0127 ///// 0103 +305 +246 360000 000 /// /// 23
164730 1742N 06448W 0127 ///// 0102 +305 +245 360000 000 /// /// 23
164800 1742N 06448W 0126 ///// 0099 +305 +244 360000 000 /// /// 23
164830 1742N 06448W 0123 ///// 0099 +300 +244 360000 000 /// /// 23
164900 1742N 06448W 0122 ///// 0097 +295 +243 360000 000 /// /// 23
164930 1742N 06448W 0119 ///// 0094 +297 +242 360000 000 /// /// 23
165000 1742N 06449W 0116 ///// 0091 +299 +240 360000 000 /// /// 23
165030 1742N 06449W 0106 ///// 0085 +304 +239 360000 000 /// /// 23
165100 1742N 06449W 0112 ///// 0086 +313 +239 360000 000 /// /// 23
165130 1742N 06449W 0113 ///// 0087 +312 +238 360000 000 /// /// 23
165200 1742N 06449W 0112 ///// 0086 +309 +237 360000 000 /// /// 23
165230 1742N 06449W 0106 ///// 0085 +293 +233 049006 010 /// /// 23
165300 1742N 06448W 9988 00095 0094 +276 +199 068015 018 /// /// 03
$$
;
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon Discussion

#704 Postby clfenwi » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:57 am

Plane now airborne.
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#705 Postby Dave » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:58 am

Take off for 97L from St Croix V.I.

567
URNT15 KNHC 201653
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 01 20110820
164330 1742N 06448W 0130 ///// 0106 +309 +253 360000 000 /// /// 23
164400 1742N 06448W 0131 ///// 0106 +307 +251 360000 000 /// /// 23
164430 1742N 06448W 0130 ///// 0106 +310 +251 360000 000 /// /// 23
164500 1742N 06448W 0130 ///// 0105 +304 +250 360000 000 /// /// 23
164530 1742N 06448W 0129 ///// 0104 +301 +248 360000 000 /// /// 23
164600 1742N 06448W 0129 ///// 0103 +305 +247 360000 000 /// /// 23
164630 1742N 06448W 0129 ///// 0104 +302 +246 360000 000 /// /// 23
164700 1742N 06448W 0127 ///// 0103 +305 +246 360000 000 /// /// 23
164730 1742N 06448W 0127 ///// 0102 +305 +245 360000 000 /// /// 23
164800 1742N 06448W 0126 ///// 0099 +305 +244 360000 000 /// /// 23
164830 1742N 06448W 0123 ///// 0099 +300 +244 360000 000 /// /// 23
164900 1742N 06448W 0122 ///// 0097 +295 +243 360000 000 /// /// 23
164930 1742N 06448W 0119 ///// 0094 +297 +242 360000 000 /// /// 23
165000 1742N 06449W 0116 ///// 0091 +299 +240 360000 000 /// /// 23
165030 1742N 06449W 0106 ///// 0085 +304 +239 360000 000 /// /// 23
165100 1742N 06449W 0112 ///// 0086 +313 +239 360000 000 /// /// 23
165130 1742N 06449W 0113 ///// 0087 +312 +238 360000 000 /// /// 23
165200 1742N 06449W 0112 ///// 0086 +309 +237 360000 000 /// /// 23
165230 1742N 06449W 0106 ///// 0085 +293 +233 049006 010 /// /// 23
165300 1742N 06448W 9988 00095 0094 +276 +199 068015 018 /// /// 03
$$
;
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#706 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:58 am

Visible of 97L
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#707 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 20, 2011 12:00 pm

Big dry slot in the center...history tells us these type of systems take a while to get going
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#708 Postby supercane » Sat Aug 20, 2011 12:00 pm

Nothing resembling on latest ASCAT, with only NE winds near satellite estimated center, although gusty:
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#709 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Aug 20, 2011 12:01 pm

From NWS Melbourne discussion earlier this morning

WED-FRI...THE FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE EASTERN CARRIBEAN
NEAR 55W LONGITUDE. MODELS FORECAST IT TO BE IN VICINITY OF CUBA
NEXT THURS WITH A TRACK TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH FL BY NEXT
WEEKEND. CURRENT HPC DAY 7 POSITION HAS IT NEAR THE WESTERN KEYS AS
A RECURVING SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR SOME EFFECTS ON ECFL.
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#710 Postby Dave » Sat Aug 20, 2011 12:05 pm

514
URNT15 KNHC 201703
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 02 20110820
165330 1742N 06446W 9740 00333 0112 +255 +171 090014 015 /// /// 03
165400 1742N 06445W 9595 00475 0128 +244 +147 079015 016 /// /// 03
165430 1741N 06443W 9308 00756 0144 +225 +128 077017 017 /// /// 03
165500 1742N 06441W 8872 01165 0150 +194 +113 079017 017 /// /// 03
165530 1742N 06439W 8493 01545 0143 +177 +101 085016 016 /// /// 03
165600 1742N 06438W 8115 01936 0136 +166 +089 080015 016 /// /// 03
165630 1741N 06436W 7833 02239 0122 +166 +078 078014 015 /// /// 03
165700 1740N 06435W 7624 02462 0114 +155 +066 071017 017 /// /// 03
165730 1739N 06433W 7418 02695 0118 +137 +058 064017 017 /// /// 03
165800 1738N 06431W 7223 02924 0124 +118 +050 072018 019 /// /// 03
165830 1737N 06430W 7023 03156 0128 +102 +041 084022 023 /// /// 03
165900 1736N 06428W 6809 03420 0139 +081 +034 088025 025 /// /// 03
165930 1735N 06426W 6612 03662 0142 +066 +024 081024 026 /// /// 03
170000 1735N 06424W 6443 03874 0143 +052 +018 069019 020 /// /// 03
170030 1734N 06422W 6281 04086 0153 +033 +013 069020 020 /// /// 03
170100 1733N 06420W 6117 04299 0154 +019 +005 076020 021 /// /// 03
170130 1732N 06419W 5956 04494 0117 +013 -002 082019 020 /// /// 03
170200 1731N 06417W 5807 04694 0091 +011 -006 091018 019 /// /// 03
170230 1731N 06415W 5725 04806 0096 +000 -013 093018 019 /// /// 03
170300 1730N 06413W 5605 05000 0107 -007 -019 094017 018 /// /// 03
$$
;
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon

#711 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 20, 2011 12:11 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon

#712 Postby msbee » Sat Aug 20, 2011 12:14 pm

i just heard the Weather Channel say the recon flight has been cancelled or delayed. is this true? Does anyone have any updated information?
Thanks
Barbara
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#713 Postby Dave » Sat Aug 20, 2011 12:14 pm

466
URNT15 KNHC 201713
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 03 20110820
170330 1729N 06411W 5484 05167 0283 -017 -026 090016 017 /// /// 03
170400 1728N 06409W 5379 05323 0293 -027 -029 085014 015 /// /// 03
170430 1727N 06407W 5276 05479 0303 -040 //// 087013 013 /// /// 05
170500 1726N 06405W 5172 05632 0310 -054 //// 089012 013 /// /// 05
170530 1725N 06403W 5073 05787 0319 -061 //// 100011 012 /// /// 05
170600 1725N 06401W 4982 05928 0328 -066 //// 100010 011 /// /// 05
170630 1724N 06359W 4899 06060 0336 -071 //// 094010 010 /// /// 05
170700 1723N 06357W 4811 06199 0345 -080 //// 094010 011 /// /// 05
170730 1722N 06355W 4730 06337 0353 -086 //// 103011 012 /// /// 05
170800 1721N 06353W 4649 06475 0360 -096 //// 107012 013 /// /// 05
170830 1720N 06351W 4574 06581 0360 -105 //// 107012 014 /// /// 05
170900 1719N 06349W 4495 06708 0362 -113 //// 102014 015 /// /// 05
170930 1718N 06347W 4425 06829 0365 -122 //// 099015 015 /// /// 05
171000 1717N 06345W 4365 06933 0372 -127 //// 094014 014 /// /// 05
171030 1716N 06343W 4305 07040 0380 -133 //// 098013 013 /// /// 05
171100 1716N 06341W 4250 07141 0385 -139 //// 103010 011 /// /// 05
171130 1715N 06338W 4200 07232 0392 -144 //// 122009 010 /// /// 05
171200 1714N 06336W 4144 07325 0398 -149 //// 125011 012 /// /// 05
171230 1713N 06334W 4089 07431 0405 -156 //// 120012 012 /// /// 05
171300 1712N 06332W 4039 07526 0410 -160 //// 111010 011 /// /// 05
$$
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon

#714 Postby Dave » Sat Aug 20, 2011 12:15 pm

msbee wrote:i just heard the Weather Channel say the recon flight has been cancelled or delayed. is this true? Does anyone have any updated information?
Thanks
Barbara


barbara recon is on it's way right now...see above and below. :D
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#715 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 20, 2011 12:16 pm

Image

Looking eastward
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#716 Postby Dave » Sat Aug 20, 2011 12:17 pm

Any questions or comments for Recon into 97L please post them on this thread:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111543&p=2164859#p2164859

That way we can keep the data & graphics flowing on this thread. Thanks!
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Re: Re:

#717 Postby msbee » Sat Aug 20, 2011 12:17 pm

Gustywind wrote:
HUC wrote:Meteo Guadeloupe put a center near 13,8N 58W and an Orange alert for our territories.
The weather is overcast( cirrostratus and alto stratus ) with Cb clouds, passing rain and strong thunder...Things are beginin folks...Stay tunes and be prepared!

Thanks for you report HUC :). The same here in my locality. Looking at the radar of Meteo-France squalls lines are not so far from our island! Let's continue to monitor carefully 97L approaching pretty closely now...


keep us updated Gusty and HUC.
we are keeping a close outlook here also. so far sunny skies.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon Discussion

#718 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 20, 2011 12:18 pm

Barbara,the plane is flying towards 97L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#719 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Aug 20, 2011 12:19 pm

I could be wrong but looking at the latest visible it appears to me that we are seeing a more northerly motion. Maybe I've just been up too long staring at satellite loops and endless model runs. :double:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon Discussion

#720 Postby msbee » Sat Aug 20, 2011 12:19 pm

OK, thanks Luis. The Weather Channel got it wrong again :-)
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