ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 202112
97779 21084 70139 58408 04600 99005 23099 /0007
40310
RMK AF300 01GGA INVEST OB 07
SWS = 16 KTS
SW outbound
;

[tolakram]

[northtxboy]

If I knew how to do it I would

[madinina]

Martinique : Rain but no winds. The weather report is late so we are always in yellow alert.
Chris: Do you have some news in sainte lucia?

[Dave]

DECODED RECCO

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 21:12Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate sixth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 07

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Saturday, 21:08Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 13.9N 58.4W
Location: 99 miles (159 km) between the NE and ENE (56°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 460 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 23°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 9°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1007 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 30° at 10 knots (From the NNE at ~ 11.5 mph)

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 16 knots (~ 18.4mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

SW outbound


ok done for awhile.

[plasticup]

Off topic: are we nearing a record for number of people logged in. I see 327 guests and *alot* of members logged in right now

In total there are 545 users online :: 137 registered, 10 hidden and 398 guests
Most users ever online was 927 on Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:05 pm

That's high, but weekends tend to be busy. Although I'm betting a serious US landfalls would crush that 927 record.

[brunota2003]

I think I can grab the obs for a little bit.

EDIT: Macrocane, if you want to grab them, you can.

[wzrgirl1]

With school starting here in South Florida, I assume this wouldn't affect the first day which is Monday right? We are looking at more toward the end of next week right? If necessary, then watches would go up either Tuesday or Wednesday. Am I about right with all of this??

[KWT]

Just not defined enough IMO for the upgrade, its very close and probably will require a "Near 100%" from the NHC but IMO its a bit ill defined at the moment.

Still we will see how the next few recon sets go!

[cpdaman]

With school starting here in South Florida, I assume this wouldn't affect the first day which is Monday right? We are looking at more toward the end of next week right? If necessary, then watches would go up either Tuesday or Wednesday. Am I about right with all of this??

yes in general ...

.and before someone responds no one is saying this is happening...just a hypothetical

[Ivanhater]

[WeatherEmperor]

With school starting here in South Florida, I assume this wouldn't affect the first day which is Monday right? We are looking at more toward the end of next week right? If necessary, then watches would go up either Tuesday or Wednesday. Am I about right with all of this??

Wendy,

I think if it were to come to South Florida we are looking at Thursday/Friday of this upcoming week.

[SouthDadeFish]

We have a VDM!! TS Irene is here I would say.

[ronjon]

Looks like an Emily type organization without a tight circulation center yet. Still very broad circulation. Tough call on whether to upgrade.

[wzrgirl1]

With school starting here in South Florida, I assume this wouldn't affect the first day which is Monday right? We are looking at more toward the end of next week right? If necessary, then watches would go up either Tuesday or Wednesday. Am I about right with all of this??

yes in general ...

.and before someone responds no one is saying this is happening...just a hypothetical

Yes of course, hypothetically. Just thinking of the kids, school buses, etc. thanks!!!

[plasticup]

With school starting here in South Florida, I assume this wouldn't affect the first day which is Monday right? We are looking at more toward the end of next week right? If necessary, then watches would go up either Tuesday or Wednesday. Am I about right with all of this??

Not NEARLY that soon. Next weekend, maybe Friday at the earliest.

And I expect we'll have some official predictions from the NHC shortly! Obviously I'm just a hack amateur and you should listen to the Pros, but it won't be anywhere near the US on Monday, I can promise you that!

[brunota2003]

000
URNT12 KNHC 202118
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL972011
A. 20/20:55:10Z
B. 14 deg 31 min N
057 deg 46 min W
C. NA
D. 54 kt
E. 043 deg 82 nm
F. 090 deg 53 kt
G. 046 deg 92 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 20 C / 457 m
J. 23 C / 456 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 01GGA INVEST OB 06
MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 20:25:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;

[wxman57]

Got a vortex message: 14.5N/57.7W. 1006mb 45 kts

[WeatherEmperor]

Got a vortex message: 14.5N/57.7W. 1006mb 45 kts

Does that mean an upgrade is coming?

[brunota2003]

Looks like some people are eating a big helping of crow...Yes Virginia, there is a LLC.