ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[jinftl]

Hispanola and Cuba could keep Irene in check...or kill her completely. Wouldn't be the first Irene to impact south fla (1999), so i hope she doesn't try to outdo her predecessor

[johngaltfla]

Folks, just my opinion, not a forecast, but since this is in "Hebert Box" territory, I would be especially vigilant in Florida.

[KWT]

whats is far more worrying is the fact they are calling for a hurricane PRE hispaniola...thats not something I'd like to see.

Takes on considerable land on that NHC forecast but not enough to suggest it couldn't be a hurricane on that track and its very close to the ECM at 96hrs.

[plasticup]

They are holding this at TS strength through almost the entire advisory period?! Well color me surprised.

[johngaltfla]

whats is far more worrying is the fact they are calling for a hurricane PRE hispaniola...thats not something I'd like to see.

Takes on considerable land on that NHC forecast but not enough to suggest it couldn't be a hurricane on that track and its very close to the ECM at 96hrs.

That and memories of Sir Charles have all of us in FL perking up our attention, that's for sure.

[Dave]

Gotcha Luis, and I'm sure you'll be around too

Unless the power goes.

You take care of you Luis.

[sunnyday]

So, does it appear that Irene will not be the "monster" storm that people were calling it earlier in the week?

[ConvergenceZone]

Hispanola and Cuba could keep Irene in check...or kill her completely. Wouldn't be the first Irene to impact south fla (1999), so i hope she doesn't try to outdo her predecessor

Good call jinftl. My guess is if it hits Hispanola or Cuba as only a tropical storm, it will kill her completely. On the other hand if it hits it as a hurricane, there should be enough of the core left to get a tropical storm out of it before it impacts Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

center just coming into view of radar...

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?116

[gatorcane]

will the discussion be issued now or at 11pm EST?

[KWT]

They are holding this at TS strength through almost the entire advisory period?! Well color me surprised.

Given that track thats probably the best call for now, a brief hurricane before it gets weakened by Hispaniola.

The wildcard would be for a more northward motion then expected in the next 24-36hrs, which would allow it more time over water.

[ConvergenceZone]

So, does it appear that Irene will not be the "monster" storm that people were calling it earlier in the week?

Hehe, well the NHC knows how the models love to way overdo intensity forecasts..... It's good entertainment though....

[artist]

Thanks Tim for breaking me today...after doing Harvey then this one I was starting to get blurry eyed. lol Looks like many more to come though.

I should be able to help out some the next couple of days then after that whenever. Brand new grandma (me) here last Friday! Great grandpa is going home Tues. morning so will have more time then. Can try to pick up one tomorrow, though I think.

[plasticup]

So, does it appear that Irene will not be the "monster" storm that people were calling it earlier in the week?

In my opinion, yes. The NHC is expecting that both Hispaniola and Cuba disrupt the circulation pretty substantially. I think they are pitching this waaaay too low.

[Aric Dunn]

they have it centered at 14,9 N moving 280 and 22mph ... lol

[pricetag56]

So, does it appear that Irene will not be the "monster" storm that people were calling it earlier in the week?

too early still to know that or not just dont know how much itll strengthen from here till land interaction

[jinftl]

Time spent over land is the reason for that...if this steers north or south of hispanola especially, this could be a different story

Intersting graphic shows the probability of wind speed:

They are holding this at TS strength through almost the entire advisory period?! Well color me surprised.

[plasticup]

They are holding this at TS strength through almost the entire advisory period?! Well color me surprised.

Given that track thats probably the best call for now, a brief hurricane before it gets weakened by Hispaniola.

The wildcard would be for a more northward motion then expected in the next 24-36hrs, which would allow it more time over water.

Or southward, missing Hispaniola and the mountainous part of Cuba.

Their intensity forecast relies on a really precise track, if you ask me.

[KWT]

So, does it appear that Irene will not be the "monster" storm that people were calling it earlier in the week?

In my opinion, yes. The NHC is expecting that both Hispaniola and Cuba disrupt the circulation pretty substantially. I think they are pitching this waaaay too low.

If it takes the NHC track it'd do well to keep its TS status throughout...but I'd also be a little bit surprised if it died totally as well, conditions aloft look better then they did with say Emily for example which had some horrid shear to deal with.

Its a toughie make no mistake about it!

Small shift here or there makes all the difference.

[wxman57]

Folks, just my opinion, not a forecast, but since this is in "Herbert Box" territory, I would be especially vigilant in Florida.

Note that it's the "Hebert Box" you're referring to, named after NHC forecaster Paul Hebert from New Iberia, LA. It's not the "Herbert Box". And the Hebert box is not a forecasting tool. It is merely an observations that most storms which have hit south Florida have passed through this region. The reverse is not necessarily true. That is, just because a storm passes through the Hebert Box does not mean it will be a threat to south Florida.

However, in this case, I think it is most definitely a threat to south Florida. Note that the NHC's track is remarkably close to that consensus graphic I posted a page or two back. I'm still concerned that the Euro ensembles and Canadian take it into the central Gulf vs. south Florida.