ATL: IRENE - Models
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
NHC could opt for a special advisory if Euro is on board as well. Maybe issue the advisory an hour early to show the seriousness of the situation down the road for the US. They'll need to show a landfalling cat 3 or cat 4 at least.
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psyclone wrote:we certainly have a trend in florida's favor at this point. let's see if it persists.
Florida has never been out of it..
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Re: Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:GTStorm wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:no recurve... sratight north at 117 hours.. heading towards GA and SC
Not too worried..for Savannah, there's always a recurve...
Not with the ridge there.
did it weaken or strengthen from the 6Z run? seems like the GFS landfall has been trending northeast-ish, I would expect next run to be closer to mid SC / NC border.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
no they wont
maxintensity wrote:NHC could opt for a special advisory if Euro is on board as well. Maybe issue the advisory an hour early to show the seriousness of the situation down the road for the US. They'll need to show a landfalling cat 3 or cat 4 at least.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
maxintensity wrote:NHC could opt for a special advisory if Euro is on board as well. Maybe issue the advisory an hour early to show the seriousness of the situation down the road for the US. They'll need to show a landfalling cat 3 or cat 4 at least.
Land interaction could bust those forecasts completely though.
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Re: Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:psyclone wrote:we certainly have a trend in florida's favor at this point. let's see if it persists.
Florida has never been out of it..
Trend in Florida's favor?????? Am I missing something?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

This warrants a special advisory when you have a south florida getting a weak cat 1 and SC outside the cone of uncertainty. But still we will probably get the update at the usual time.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
There ARE other cities in Florida other than in South Florida you know... 
(not that South Florida is safe right now or anything)

(not that South Florida is safe right now or anything)
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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
GFS, EURO and Canadian now keep this to the east of Florida and show more of a problem for Georgia and the Carolinas...Florida would be on the weaker side as opposed if this moved into the eastern Gulf.
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Michael
Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
storm4u wrote:no they wontmaxintensity wrote:NHC could opt for a special advisory if Euro is on board as well. Maybe issue the advisory an hour early to show the seriousness of the situation down the road for the US. They'll need to show a landfalling cat 3 or cat 4 at least.
Just to expand a little on the short reply to you; a special advisory would be used for an immediate situation where waiting for the next advisory is too late. Local NWS offices eod talk to a future threat to tell residents to be ready
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i am seeing a steady trend toward the east which over time puts more and more of the state either out of reach or on the weaker, western side of a northward moving storm. if the models continue to trend east, that would be better for florida, no? i'm just observing trends, nothing more.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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- chris_fit
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
Yesterday half the models took this into the eastern gulf, today they keep it east of FL. There is no need for a special advisory. Plenty of time to watch this storm, no one is out of the woods yet.
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- Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
Despite today's model trends, I'm not letting my guard down, and neigher should anyone in Florida. All it would take is a nudge west of the 12z GFS to sent a monster riding up Florida's spine. Yesterday the models trended west, today east. Its not over yet, still a lot to unfold.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
Evil Jeremy wrote:Despite today's model trends, I'm not letting my guard down, and neigher should anyone in Florida. All it would take is a nudge west of the 12z GFS to sent a monster riding up Florida's spine. Yesterday the models trended west, today east. Its not over yet, still a lot to unfold.
Ya, trying to follow this as a complete amateur can be nerve wracking lol
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- Bocadude85
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Re:
psyclone wrote:we certainly have a trend in florida's favor at this point. let's see if it persists.
lol I am not very comfortable with a hurricane passing a 100 miles to my east considering the track error in that time frame is greater then 100 miles. I have a flight out of Miami thursday night so I am hoping this misses us to the east.
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12z nogaps is nearly identical.. except instead of nnw turn like the gfs at day 5 it stays straight north..
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: Re:
Bocadude85 wrote:psyclone wrote:we certainly have a trend in florida's favor at this point. let's see if it persists.
lol I am not very comfortable with a hurricane passing a 100 miles to my east considering the track error in that time frame is greater then 100 miles. I have a flight out of Miami thursday night so I am hoping this misses us to the east.
I wonder what the storm surge potentials would be for the Savannah and Charleston areas?

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