ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Hopefully we can get some recon in before PR, going to be a close call though.

Recon departs at 7:00 PM EDT.

Code: Select all

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
       A. 22/0000Z,0600Z
       B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLONE
       C. 21/2300Z
       D. 16.5N 65.00W
       E. 21/2330Z TO 21/0600Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



[LCfromFL]

If the system tracks over PR before the next recon flight gets there do you think they may cancel it, or will the data still be useful enough to send them in?

Also when is the next flight come to think about it?

000
NOUS42 KNHC 201500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 20 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-081

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 21/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 21/1100Z
D. 15.8N 61.8W
E. 21/1130Z TO 21/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 22/0000Z,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLONE
C. 21/2300Z
D. 16.5N 65.00W
E. 21/2330Z TO 21/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM IF STILL A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE G-IV SURVEILANCE MISSION FOR 23/0000Z.
3. REMARK: IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION IS NOT FOUND ON TODAY'S
MISSION NEAR THE ANTILLES, THE 21/1200Z MISSION WILL
SLIP TO A 21/1800Z INVESTIGATIVE MISSION.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Next flight should leave at 7 p.m. EDT. (I think)

[NDG]

St Croix conditions are going down hill.

[brunota2003]

I'm not too sure about that flight though...depends on how bad the weather is, I would think.

[NDG]

Hopefully we can get some recon in before PR, going to be a close call though.

Recon departs at 7:00 PM EDT.

Code: Select all

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
       A. 22/0000Z,0600Z
       B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLONE
       C. 21/2300Z
       D. 16.5N 65.00W
       E. 21/2330Z TO 21/0600Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



When the recon takes off the COC could be right on top of them or real close.

[KWT]

I think motion is a bit misleading due to the inner core fluctuating right now. It kinda wobbles until a true eyewall gets established. One set it looks 270 next set looks 285 smooth it out and you get around 280.

Yeah thats a good answer, the systems LLC is no doubt wobbling around a little as the system wraps itself up. I'm really impressed by the presentation now, providing PR doesn't cause too many problems for the system I'd expect a hurricane before Hispaniola as the NHC have been forecasting for a while now.

[leanne_uk]

Thinking of everyone who has been effected so far by Irene and everyone in her path. Stay safe and update us as and when you can.

I think we are all in for late nights radar and model watching to see exactly where she will track. I have friends flying out to Florida tomorrow with their children and some more meant to be heading out on Friday so keeping an extra close eye on development

[brunota2003]

I'm not too sure that flight will ever leave the deck. I'm not sure what their upper limits are for safe take offs/landings.

[MWatkins]

Hey is the GIV flying tonight? I don't think it is (wouldn't it have taken off already)?

I am not sure seeing a track north in the next day or two is a good thing for SFL. The euro is closer at 12Z than it was at 0Z, and that would still put South Florida a wobble away from seeing at least the inner core of what could be a much stronger storm than the NHC is currently forecasting.

I do expect the NHC to shift the line east a little, over the central Bahamas, but make no mistake, SFL is still under the gun, and the threat for a significant hurricane has increased in my opinion.

MW

[gatorcane]

Hey is the GIV flying tonight? I don't think it is (wouldn't it have taken off already)?

I am not sure seeing a track north in the next day or two is a good thing for SFL. The euro is closer at 12Z than it was at 0Z, and that would still put South Florida a wobble away from seeing at least the inner core of what could be a much stronger storm than the NHC is currently forecasting.

I do expect the NHC to shift the line east a little, over the central Bahamas, but make no mistake, SFL is still under the gun, and the threat for a significant hurricane has increased in my opinion.

MW

Agreed, thanks for your comments.

I was expecting the ECMWF to shift more east on 12Z but it actually shift some west on the 12Z.

So no way we can breathe a sigh of relief here in South Florida....

ECMWF is only 45 miles east of Palm Beach at its closest point.

[Aric Dunn]

here is the center.

[OuterBanker]

We all can hope that PR and Hispaniola disrupt Irene. If they don't this could become a real monster. Atmospheric conditions as well as water tesps =are close to ideal from Fl to the Carolinas.

[SeminoleWind]

Hey is the GIV flying tonight? I don't think it is (wouldn't it have taken off already)?

I am not sure seeing a track north in the next day or two is a good thing for SFL. The euro is closer at 12Z than it was at 0Z, and that would still put South Florida a wobble away from seeing at least the inner core of what could be a much stronger storm than the NHC is currently forecasting.

I do expect the NHC to shift the line east a little, over the central Bahamas, but make no mistake, SFL is still under the gun, and the threat for a significant hurricane has increased in my opinion.

MW

Agreed, thanks for your comments.

I was expecting the ECMWF to shift more east on 12Z but it actually shift some west on the 12Z.

So no way we can breathe a sigh of relief here in South Florida....

ECMWF is only 45 miles east of Palm Beach at its closest point.

i agree sir, i think the models are over doing the weakness just a tad, but we shall see

[supercane]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 212045
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

IRENE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN ITS APPEARANCE ON
SATELLITE IMAGES...WITH CURVED BANDS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH OBSERVATIONS
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS.
ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IRENE
AROUND 0000 UTC. WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER THE STORM...THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT TO
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE LAND
INTERACTION. IF IRENE MOVES OVER MORE OF HISPANIOLA OR OVER PARTS
OF EASTERN CUBA IT WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER THAN INDICATED
HERE...HOWEVER IF THE SYSTEM ENDS UP MOVING TO THE NORTH OF BOTH OF
THOSE LAND MASSES IT COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN EXPECTED. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN THE LATEST LGEM
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED A BIT AND IS NOW NEAR 285/15. IRENE
CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR 1 TO 2 DAYS
WHICH WOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO...AND NEAR OR
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A COUPLE OF
TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TO THE RIGHT AROUND
DAY 3. SEVERAL OF THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SUCH AS THE
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND SO
HAS THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT IS
IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT
DAYS 4 TO 5 SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE
FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES RESPECTIVELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 17.7N 64.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 18.2N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 22/1800Z 18.9N 69.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/0600Z 19.6N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/1800Z 20.3N 73.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 24/1800Z 22.7N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 25.5N 79.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 28.5N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE NEAR ST. CROIX...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 64.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO THE BORDER WITH
HAITI.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
FURTHER SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER
OF IRENE WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND NEAR
OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
HURRICANE INTENSITY ON MONDAY. WEAKENING IS LIKELY LATER ON MONDAY
AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES THIS EVENING...AND IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
TONIGHT...AND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3
TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO
RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

NNNN
000
WTNT24 KNHC 212044
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
2100 UTC SUN AUG 21 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO THE BORDER WITH
HAITI.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 64.4W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 20SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 60SE 15SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 64.4W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 63.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.2N 66.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.9N 69.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.6N 71.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 40SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.3N 73.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.7N 76.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 25.5N 79.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 28.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 64.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Battlebrick]

NHC barely changed the track, still 50 mph.

[gatorcane]

Cone right over South Florida.

Line tracks through SE Florida....

[jinftl]

Hats off to all those who breathed a sigh of relief for florida...not sayin' this is a done deal...but I have been on this board since Frances threatened florida in 2004 and if i have learned one thing, it is to follow the lead of the NHC forecast.

[SFLcane]

Hey is the GIV flying tonight? I don't think it is (wouldn't it have taken off already)?

I am not sure seeing a track north in the next day or two is a good thing for SFL. The euro is closer at 12Z than it was at 0Z, and that would still put South Florida a wobble away from seeing at least the inner core of what could be a much stronger storm than the NHC is currently forecasting.

I do expect the NHC to shift the line east a little, over the central Bahamas, but make no mistake, SFL is still under the gun, and the threat for a significant hurricane has increased in my opinion.
MW

Strong words there mike...Care to explain why if you dont mine? thanks

[boca]

Lets hope that the weaknesswill be strong enough to keep Irene just off our coast.

[Fyzn94]

Oh, brother...looks like she could peak around the FL peninsula or the Bahamas.