ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

DECODED VDM OB 14

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 05:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 5:06:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°05'N 65°40'W (18.0833N 65.6667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 34 miles (55 km) to the SE (131°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,352m (4,436ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 130° at 78kts (From the SE at ~ 89.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,516m (4,974ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 78kts (~ 89.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 5:02:30Z

[SouthFloridawx]

I was just going to say that is definitely NW.

Notice the latest Recon fix appears to be well to the NW. Looks to be about to make landfall.

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE 15

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 05:21Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 15

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 5Z on the 22nd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 18.1N 65.7W
Location: 32 miles (51 km) to the SE (132°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Marsden Square: 043 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
991mb (29.26 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 240° (from the WSW) 14 knots (16 mph)
1000mb -82m (-269 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 608m (1,995 ft) 23.6°C (74.5°F) 22.1°C (71.8°F) 225° (from the SW) 11 knots (13 mph)
850mb 1,346m (4,416 ft) 20.2°C (68.4°F) 18.5°C (65.3°F) 190° (from the S) 5 knots (6 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 5:06Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Splash Location: 18.08N 65.67W
Splash Time: 5:07Z

Release Location: 18.08N 65.67W View map)
Release Time: 5:06:13Z

Splash Location: 18.08N 65.67W (
Splash Time: 5:07:36Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 235° (from the SW)
- Wind Speed: 14 knots (16 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 225° (from the SW)
- Wind Speed: 9 knots (10 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 990mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 156 gpm - 6 gpm (512 geo. feet - 20 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 230° (from the SW)
- Wind Speed: 15 knots (17 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
991mb (Surface) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 25.4°C (77.7°F)
850mb 20.2°C (68.4°F) 18.5°C (65.3°F)
843mb 19.4°C (66.9°F) 18.0°C (64.4°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
991mb (Surface) 240° (from the WSW) 14 knots (16 mph)
989mb 250° (from the WSW) 14 knots (16 mph)
986mb 230° (from the SW) 15 knots (17 mph)
913mb 235° (from the SW) 12 knots (14 mph)
898mb 215° (from the SW) 6 knots (7 mph)
858mb 190° (from the S) 6 knots (7 mph)
843mb 190° (from the S) 4 knots (5 mph)


---



[CrazyC83]

I was just going to say that is definitely NW.

Notice the latest Recon fix appears to be well to the NW. Looks to be about to make landfall.

Landfall point will likely be near Punta Santiago. I would set the landfall intensity at 65 kt.

[AdamFirst]

"definitely NW" by maybe 10 miles or so...I'd say its right on its NHC track.

[Adoquín]

I am beginning hearing things breaking outside

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 220524
97779 05190 20178 65108 15000 19044 15//8 /2462
RMK AF302 0309A IRENE OB 16
SWS = 45 KTS
LAST REPORT
;

Mission over!

[Battlebrick]

wow, 7 hours!

[SouthFloridawx]

[CrazyC83]

Next mission will probably be tomorrow evening I would guess after emerging from Puerto Rico?

[Dave]

Next mission:

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM IRENE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 22/12Z,18Z
B. AFXXX 0409A IRENE
C. 21/1045Z
D. 18.2N 68.2W
E. 21/1130Z TO 21/18Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[SouthFLTropics]

I am beginning hearing things breaking outside

Hunker down and be safe down there...If you hear the train coming head to your safe room!

SFT

[SouthFloridawx]

I was just going to say that is definitely NW.

Notice the latest Recon fix appears to be well to the NW. Looks to be about to make landfall.

Landfall point will likely be near Punta Santiago. I would set the landfall intensity at 65 kt.

000
WTNT64 KNHC 220530
TCUAT4

TROPICAL STORM IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
130 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

AT APPROXIMATELY 125 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM IRENE MAY LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR PUNTA SANTIAGO.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Sanibel]

I am beginning hearing things breaking outside

You'll probably have stuff to clean-up tomorrow. I don't think it will stop for a while.

[CrazyC83]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 220530
TCUAT4

TROPICAL STORM IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
130 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

AT APPROXIMATELY 125 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM IRENE MAY LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR PUNTA SANTIAGO.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

IMO, it was Hurricane Irene.

[supercane]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 220530
TCUAT4

TROPICAL STORM IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
130 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

AT APPROXIMATELY 125 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM IRENE MAY LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR PUNTA SANTIAGO.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Dave]

Hdobs that came in after the recco...they're over St Croix now.

261
URNT15 KNHC 220529
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 45 20110822
051900 1747N 06508W 8469 01494 //// +147 //// 195047 050 045 013 01
051930 1747N 06506W 8401 01563 //// +149 //// 191046 048 045 012 01
052000 1746N 06505W 8384 01583 //// +149 //// 188045 046 045 008 01
052030 1746N 06503W 8373 01598 0066 +156 //// 188044 044 041 006 01
052100 1745N 06502W 8360 01615 0069 +157 //// 185043 043 039 005 01
052130 1745N 06501W 8383 01588 0066 +161 //// 183044 045 037 002 01
052200 1744N 06459W 8410 01562 0066 +165 //// 184042 044 038 002 01
052230 1744N 06458W 8425 01546 //// +145 //// 181041 043 038 012 01
052300 1743N 06457W 8363 01612 //// +152 //// 176040 041 041 014 01
052330 1742N 06455W 8377 01599 0073 +156 //// 175041 041 035 004 01
052400 1742N 06454W 8387 01586 //// +148 //// 175041 043 041 006 01
052430 1741N 06453W 8401 01566 //// +150 //// 171039 040 114 015 05
052500 1740N 06452W 8420 01557 //// +144 //// 172037 039 036 012 05
052530 1739N 06453W 8384 01597 //// +143 //// 177039 043 041 005 05
052600 1739N 06455W 8384 01593 0073 +160 //// 177040 040 032 001 01
052630 1738N 06456W 8381 01598 0076 +160 //// 178039 040 030 002 05
052700 1739N 06457W 8401 01580 0081 +158 //// 177040 042 /// /// 05
052730 1741N 06457W 8385 01593 0075 +158 //// 178043 043 /// /// 05
052800 1741N 06455W 8369 01606 0073 +160 //// 178043 044 034 001 01
052830 1741N 06454W 8376 01604 0072 +155 //// 176044 045 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Kohlecane]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 220530
TCUAT4

TROPICAL STORM IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
130 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011

AT APPROXIMATELY 125 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM IRENE MAY LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR PUNTA SANTIAGO.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

IMO, it was Hurricane Irene.

[Dave]

Approaching St Croix V.I. and done...



And so am I...